Most conditions in the new year support a new surge in gold prices, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by most major central banks this year, led by the Federal Reserve.

According to a Bloomberg report, major banks and institutions expect gold prices to average between $1,950 and $2200 an ounce in 2024. 

We'll try in this article to accost some of the factors deciding the fate of gold prices this year.

JPMorgan 

The US bank expects gold prices to average $2175 an ounce this year as the Federal Reserve prepares to cut interest rates this year.

Morgan Stanley

The group expects gold prices to average $2,019 an ounce this year, with prices determined by geopolitical risks worldwide. 

Bank of America 

As the Fed starts cutting interest rates this year, gold prices will get a boost, with the bank expecting prices to average $1,975 in 2024. 

UBS

The bank expects gold prices to hit a fresh record high at $2,150 by the end of the year as US interest rate cuts commence. 

Wells Fargo 

As the economy slows down, it's expected precious metals price will hold ground in early 2024 before advancing by the end of the year to near $2200. 

Pictet Asset Management 

The group expects gold to benefit from a weaker dollar, as the US policy tightening cycle wraps up, while geopolitical tensions gather steam. 

Gold prices fell in European trade on Monday, resuming losses and approaching recent two-week lows under pressure from the stronger dollar.

Dollar's gains come as the odds for early US interest rate cuts in 2024 recede following strong US labor data. 

Now markets await important US consumer prices data this week for December, which will help determine the likely path ahead for monetary policies. 

Prices Today

Gold prices fell 0.9% to $2,027 an ounce, with a session-high at $2,046, after rising 0.1% on Friday, the second profit in a row, after hitting a two-week trough at $2,024. 

The precious metal lost 0.8% last week, the first weekly loss in a month as both the dollar and US treasury yields rallied.

The Dollar

The dollar index rose 0.15% today against a basket of major rivals, pressuring gold and other dollar-denominated commodities. 

Expectations for an early US interest rate cut at the Fed March meeting receded following upbeat US labor data for December.

US Labor Sector 

US labor data proved more positive than expected and showed the labor sector remains tight, in turn raising inflationary pressures on the Federal Reserve.

The Fed might thus decide to maintain interest rates at high levels for an extended duration to bring prices down and slow down the economy. 

US Rates

Following the data, pricing for a US 0.25% interest rate cut in March tumbled from 77% to 65%. 

The SPDR

Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust fell 4.61 tonnes yesterday to a total of 869.6 tonnes, the lowest since November 10. 

Swiss frank rose in European data against the dollar, moving in a positive zone against a basket of major rivals following strong Swiss consumer prices and retail sales data.

Such data showcases the growing pressures on the Swiss National Bank, which hurt the odds of early Swiss interest rate cuts this year. 

Frank's Pricing

The dollar fell 0.2% against the Swiss frank to 0.8484, after plumbing a one-week high on Friday at 0.8576. 

Frank lost over 1% against dollar last week, the first weekly loss in the last month on profit-taking off 12-year peak at 00.8332. 

Strong Data

Earlier Swiss data showed consumer prices rose 1.7% y/y in December, above estimates of 1.5%, and up from 1.4% in November. 

Retail sales rose 0.7% in November, beating estimates of no change, and improving from October's 0.3% decline. 

Such data showcases growing inflationary pressures on the Swiss National Bank, which reduces the odds for early interest rate cuts this year. 

It's this time of the year again when we present to you the future outlook for many of the world's issues, regions, and economies, and today we focus mainly on China.

China faces two main issues this year, a slowing economy, and the Taiwan problem. 

It's clear that China's economy is still reeling from the aftermath of the Covid 19 pandemic, in addition to the real estate crisis that threatened to bankrupt major real estate companies, with foreign investments exiting the economy at a dangerous pace. 

Recently, Chinese President Xi Jinping admitted that the country is facing a difficult situation during his new year speech, and that some people are having troubles finding jobs and covering basic needs. 

He asserted his full focus on fixing such issues and bolster economic momentum. 

It's the first time that Jinping has mentioned such economic challenges at yearly messages. 

Xinping also touched in Taiwan, which Beijing vows to annex someday as it considers it already a rogue territory of mainland China, opening the door for the use of force to reannex Taiwan. 

Taiwan is preparing for crucial presidential elections in January which is heavily weighed down by Chinese concerns and constant threats. 

It's possible an anti-China candidate might win the elections according to initial polls, which would only increase tensions in the region, and could threaten a genuine war. 

In other news, Chinese president Xi Jinping held a summit meeting with US President Joe Biden last November, which helped to soothe the relationship between both sides. 

However, structural difference threaten to ignite economic conflict once more between both countries.