Gold on track for heftiest monthly loss since 2008 on the Iranian war

Gold prices rose in European trading on Tuesday, extending gains for the third consecutive day and hitting their highest level in two weeks, supported by a slowdown in the US dollar against a basket of currencies, following a report that Trump is seeking to exit the war with Iran.

Despite this rise, the precious metal is on track to record its largest monthly loss since October 2008, due to the repercussions of the Iran war, particularly rising oil prices and renewed concerns about global inflation.

Price Overview

Gold prices today: gold rose 2.4% to $4,619.15, the highest level in two weeks, up from the session opening level of $4,511.10, after hitting a low of $4,482.81.

At Monday’s settlement, gold rose 0.4%, marking its second consecutive daily gain, supported by a recovery from a four-month low of $4,098.23 per ounce.

US dollar

The dollar index fell 0.3% on Tuesday, retreating from a ten-month high of 100.64 points, reflecting a slowdown in the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

Aside from profit-taking, the US dollar declined following reports that Trump is seeking to exit the war with Iran.

The Wall Street Journal reported late Monday that US President Donald Trump told his aides he is prepared to end military operations against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

Trump said in a post on Truth Social that Washington is “holding serious talks” with Iranian officials, but added that if no agreement is reached soon, US forces will launch strikes on power plants, oil fields, and the strategic Kharg Island.

US interest rates

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing a 97% probability that US interest rates will remain unchanged at the April meeting, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike stands at 3%.

To reassess these expectations, traders are closely monitoring a series of key US labor market data releases.

Later today, US job openings data for the end of February will be released, followed on Wednesday by private sector employment data for March, on Thursday by weekly jobless claims, and on Friday by the nonfarm payrolls report for March.

Monthly performance

Over the course of March trading, which officially ends with today’s settlement, gold prices are up about 13% so far, yet are still on track to record their first monthly loss since July 2025 and the largest monthly loss since October 2008.

This sharp monthly loss is attributed to the repercussions of the Iran war and concerns over liquidity shortages in global markets.

The US dollar rose to a ten-month high against a basket of global currencies as investors focused on buying the US currency as a preferred safe-haven asset.

Global oil prices climbed to a four-year high due to supply disruptions from the Gulf region following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

Rising energy prices have renewed concerns about accelerating global inflation, which may push central banks to raise interest rates to counter inflationary pressures.

SPDR fund

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined by 6.58 metric tons on Monday, bringing the total to 1,046.13 metric tons, the lowest level since November 26.