Gold prices rose in European trading on Tuesday to move into positive territory after two days of losses, on their way toward a two-week high, supported by the current decline in the levels of the US dollar against a basket of global currencies.

This comes amid the markets' assessment of the developments of the Iran war, especially with the approaching end of the deadline set by the US President Donald Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to global navigation, before launching violent attacks on Iranian infrastructure.

Price overview

- Gold prices today: gold prices rose by 1.0% to ($4,694.61), from the opening level of trading at ($4,648.93), and recorded the lowest level at ($4,616.62).

- At the settlement of prices on Monday, gold prices lost 0.6%, in the second consecutive daily loss, with the continuation of correction and profit-taking operations from the highest level in two weeks at $4,800.38 per ounce.

US dollar

The dollar index fell on Tuesday by about 0.25%, to continue its losses for the second consecutive session, reflecting the continued decline in the levels of the American currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

This decline comes with some investors holding onto hopes of reaching a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran before the expiration of US President Donald Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to global navigation.

Iran war updates

- Trump threatens to target civilian infrastructure if Iran does not comply with the deadline later today, Tuesday.

- The Wall Street Journal: Trump in his private talks with officials has become less optimistic about Iran concluding a deal.

- The Wall Street Journal: The gap between the positions of Washington and Tehran cannot be narrowed before the expiration of Trump’s deadline.

- Axios: Trump may postpone the attack on Iran if he senses real signs of a deal looming on the horizon.

- Axios: Trump alone is the owner of the decision to begin the destruction of Iranian infrastructure at eight in the evening Tuesday.

US interest rates

- According to the CME FedWatch tool from CME Group: the pricing of the probabilities of keeping American interest rates without any change in the upcoming April meeting is currently stable at 99%, and the pricing of the probabilities of raising interest rates by about 25 basis points is stable at 1%.

- Traders have almost entirely ruled out any probabilities of a interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. Before the outbreak of the Iran war, expectations were pointing to two cuts this year.

- In order to re-price those probabilities, investors await throughout this week the release of many important economic data from the United States, about the levels of growth and inflation in the largest economy in the world.

Expectations about gold performance

Financial market strategist Ilya Spivak said: Everyone is in a state of anticipation to know the results of this sharp speech launched by the American President during the past days.

Spivak added: Last year, gold witnessed a remarkable rise, and turned into an independent speculative market. It is likely that we will witness the return of this rise this year after the current risks recede... and by the end of the year, we may reach levels closer to $5,500 and $6,000 per ounce.

SPDR fund

Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust fund, the largest global exchange-traded fund backed by the metal, increased on Monday by about 3.43 metric tons, to bring the total to 1,054.42 metric tons, which is the highest level since last February 20.

The euro fell in European trading on Tuesday against a basket of global currencies, to resume its losses that paused temporarily yesterday against the US dollar, as the focus of investors is currently directed toward buying the American currency as a preferred alternative investment, while awaiting the developments of the Iran war, especially the approaching end of Donald Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz later today.

With the continued rise in global oil prices and eurozone inflation exceeding the European Central Bank’s medium-term target, the probabilities of raising European interest rates at least once this year increased, pending the release of more crucial economic data in Europe.

Price overview

- Euro exchange rate today: the euro fell against the dollar by about 0.15% to ($1.1524), from the opening price of the day at ($1.1540), and recorded the highest level at ($1.1548).

- The euro ended Monday’s trading up by 0.25% against the dollar, in the first gain within the last three days, with renewed hopes of reaching a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East under Pakistani sponsorship.

US dollar

The dollar index rose on Tuesday by 0.15%, to approach its highest levels in several months, reflecting the rise of the American currency against a basket of global currencies.

Buying operations of the US dollar are active as it is the best investment haven, in light of traders’ anticipation of the deadline set by Washington to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to navigation, with increasing fears of Iranian infrastructure being subjected to attacks in the event of non-compliance.

Iran war updates

- Trump threatens to target civilian infrastructure if Iran does not comply with the deadline later today, Tuesday.

- The Wall Street Journal: Trump in his private talks with officials has become less optimistic about Iran concluding a deal.

- The Wall Street Journal: The gap between the positions of Washington and Tehran cannot be narrowed before the expiration of Trump’s deadline.

- Axios: Trump may postpone the attack on Iran if he senses real signs of a deal looming on the horizon.

- Axios: Trump alone is the owner of the decision to begin the destruction of Iranian infrastructure at eight in the evening Tuesday.

Global oil prices

Global oil prices rose by an average of 2.5% on Tuesday, to extend their rise for the third consecutive day, with Brent crude recording the highest level in four weeks at $116.50 per barrel, due to fears of the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the failure of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran.

European interest rates

- Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, said: the bank is ready to raise interest rates even if the expected rise in inflation is short-term.

- Data last week showed that inflation in the eurozone exceeded the European Central Bank's target to reach 2.5% in March with the rise in energy prices.

- Following that data, the money market pricing of the probabilities of the European Central Bank raising European interest rates by about 25 basis points in this April rose from 30% to 35%.

- Sources reported to Reuters that the European Central Bank is likely to begin discussing raising interest rates during the meeting of this month.

- In order to re-price the above probabilities, investors await the release of more economic data in the eurozone about the levels of inflation, unemployment, and wages.

The Japanese yen fell in Asian trading on Tuesday against a basket of major and minor currencies, continuing its losses for the second consecutive day against the US dollar and approaching the point of trading below the 160 yen level. This is as the focus of investors is currently directed toward buying the American currency as a preferred alternative investment, with the approaching end of Donald Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz later today.

Data released today in Tokyo showed the continued contraction of Japanese household spending in February for the third consecutive month, in the latest indicators of the receding of inflationary pressures on monetary policy makers in the Japanese central bank.

Price overview

- Japanese yen exchange rate today: the dollar rose against the yen by 0.15% to (¥159.93), from the opening price of the day at (¥159.68), and recorded the lowest level at (¥159.56).

- The yen ended Monday’s trading down by 0.1% against the dollar, in the third loss within the last four days, due to fears of the escalation of the Iranian war.

US dollar

The dollar index rose on Tuesday by 0.15%, to approach its highest levels in several months, reflecting the rise of the American currency against a basket of global currencies.

Buying operations of the US dollar are active as it is the best investment haven, in light of traders’ anticipation of the deadline set by Washington to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to navigation, with increasing fears of Iranian infrastructure being subjected to attacks in the event of non-compliance.

Iran war updates

- Trump threatens to target civilian infrastructure if Iran does not comply with the deadline later today, Tuesday.

- The Wall Street Journal: Trump in his private talks with officials has become less optimistic about Iran concluding a deal.

- The Wall Street Journal: The gap between the positions of Washington and Tehran cannot be narrowed before the expiration of Trump’s deadline.

- Axios: Trump may postpone the attack on Iran if he senses real signs of a deal looming on the horizon.

- Axios: Trump alone is the owner of the decision to begin the destruction of Iranian infrastructure at eight in the evening Tuesday.

Gloomy data

Data today, Tuesday, in Tokyo showed the fall of household spending in Japan by 1.8% on an annual basis in February, worse than market expectations of a fall of 0.8%, and spending recorded a fall of 1.0% in January, in the third consecutive monthly contraction.

The contraction of consumer spending in Japan paves the way for the fall of prices and the slowing of the pace of inflation during the coming period. And there is no doubt that the receding of inflationary pressures on monetary policy makers in the Central Bank of Japan reduces the chances of conducting increases in Japanese interest rates during the coming period.

Japanese interest rates

- Following that data, the pricing of the probabilities of the Japanese central bank raising interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in the April meeting fell from 15% to 10%.

- In order to re-price those probabilities, investors await the release of more data about the levels of inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan.

Most cryptocurrencies rose during trading today, Monday, including Ethereum in light of institutions and companies strengthening their holdings of Ethereum.

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), a company specialized in managing Ethereum treasuries, increased its holdings of the second cryptocurrency after another round of weekly purchases.

The Las Vegas-based company purchased 71,252 Ethereum last week, a slight increase from the previous week, which is its largest weekly purchase since December. With this, its total holdings have become 4.803 million ETH, strengthening its position as the largest publicly traded Ethereum treasury.

From this holding, BitMine added 191,994 ETH in staking contracts last week, bringing the total assets deposited in staking to 3.33 million ETH, which is about 69% of its entire holdings. The company said it is currently achieving an annual yield of $196 million from these assets via the Made in America Validator Network (MAVAN) which it launched recently.

According to the Chairman of BitMine, Thomas Lee, ETH has been the second best performing asset since the start of the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran during the past six weeks, recording a rise of 6.8%, outperforming the S&P 500 index and gold by 1,130 and 1,840 basis points respectively.

Lee wrote in a statement on Monday: "These are good indicators, as we expect that the leadership of ETH will strengthen investor confidence and attract liquidity from the market side, with Ethereum continuing to benefit from the double push of Wall Street's employment of tokens on the blockchain and the increasing need of proxy artificial intelligence systems for public and neutral blockchain."

BitMine also possesses a stake worth $200 million in Beast Industries, and 198 Bitcoin (BTC), and a stake worth $92 million in Eightco Holdings (ORBS), in addition to total cash liquidity amounting to $864 million.

At the same time, the company announced that its shares were approved for listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), to stop trading on NYSE American by the end of the market on Wednesday, and begin trading on the NYSE on Thursday. The price of BitMine stock rose by 5% until the time of writing the report on Monday.

Ethereum price expectations: ETH attempts to break the trading range and retests the 50-day moving average

Ethereum recorded $84.5 million in liquidations during the last 24 hours, driven by the liquidation of short positions worth $74.8 million, according to Coinglass data.

On the daily chart, ETH is trading at $2,140. The short-term bias appears neutral with a slight upward trend, as the price maintains trading above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average at $2,085, and regained its strength after last week's decline. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $2,145 forms immediate resistance, which keeps the price trading within a short and medium-term range.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at 53 above the midline, while the Stochastic indicator (Stoch) moves toward the overbought zone, indicating the rebuilding of upward momentum without the presence of a clear catalyst for an upward explosion yet.

As for the initial support levels, they appear at $2,108, supported by the 20-day moving average below. Breaking this level may open the way toward $1,911, followed by the main support at $1,741. Any deeper losses may extend to $1,520 then $1,405 as broader bearish levels.

On the upward side, immediate resistance forms at $2,389, with the necessity of a daily close above it to reactivate the upward movement toward $2,746.

Regarding trades, the price of Ethereum rose at exactly 20:23 GMT on the CoinMarketCap platform by 4.1% to $2148.4.