Gold prices fell in the European market on Thursday for the first time in three sessions, moving into negative territory under pressure from a stronger US dollar against a basket of major currencies.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting reduced expectations for a rate cut in December, and investors are now awaiting the US jobs report for September, due later today, to reassess those probabilities.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: spot gold fell by roughly 1.0% to 4,038.94 dollars, down from the opening level of 4,078.80 dollars, after recording a session high of 4,110.17 dollars.

• At Wednesday’s settlement, gold gained 0.3%, marking a second consecutive daily rise as it continued to recover from a two-week low of 3,998.04 dollars per ounce.

The US Dollar

The US dollar index rose 0.2% on Thursday, extending gains for a fifth straight session and hitting a two-week high at 100.32 points, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of global counterparts.

The rise comes as investors focus on buying the dollar as the most attractive asset at the moment, amid mounting doubts about the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, especially after a series of hawkish remarks from policymakers.

Federal Reserve

Minutes from the FOMC meeting held on October 28–29, released Wednesday in Washington, showed that “many” policymakers opposed cutting the Fed’s benchmark rate during that meeting.

The minutes also indicated that many participants believed the target range would likely remain unchanged through the end of the year based on their economic assessments.

However, some members noted that an additional cut in December “could indeed be appropriate” if the economy performs roughly in line with their expectations before the next meeting.

US Rates

• According to CME’s FedWatch tool, probabilities for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December fell from 48% to 30%, while odds of no change rose from 52% to 70%.

• Investors now await new US jobs data for September — delayed for more than 48 hours due to the longest government shutdown on record — to reassess rate expectations.

Gold Outlook

Kelvin Wong, market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA, said gold is currently falling mainly because expectations of a US rate cut have declined sharply over the past two weeks.

Wong added that, in the short term, this will keep gold below 4,100 dollars. He sees resistance at 4,155 dollars, with the metal potentially trading near 4,000–3,980 dollars.

SPDR Fund

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, rose by 2.29 metric tons on Wednesday to 1,043.72 tons — the highest level in nearly a week.

The euro slipped in European trading on Thursday to its lowest level in two weeks against the US dollar, extending losses into a fifth consecutive session as investors continued to favor the US currency as the most attractive asset, especially after the latest Federal Reserve minutes, which reduced expectations of a rate cut in December.

Investors now look ahead to upcoming key economic data releases in the euro area in order to gather fresh evidence on whether the European Central Bank may move to cut interest rates in December.

Price Overview

• EUR/USD today: the euro fell 0.25% against the dollar to 1.1510 dollars — the lowest since November 6 — from an opening level of 1.1537 dollars, after touching an intraday high of 1.1542 dollars.

• The euro ended Wednesday’s session down 0.4% against the dollar, marking a fourth straight daily loss due to the impact of the Fed minutes.

US Dollar

The dollar index rose 0.2% on Thursday, extending gains into a fifth consecutive session and hitting a two-week high of 100.32 points, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of global peers.

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on October 28–29, released Wednesday in Washington, showed that “many” policymakers opposed cutting the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate at that meeting.

The minutes stated that many participants believed that, based on their economic projections, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range for interest rates unchanged through the end of the year.

However, some members noted that an additional cut in December “could indeed be appropriate if the economy performs roughly in line with their expectations” ahead of the next meeting.

US Interest Rates

• Following the minutes, and according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, the implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December fell from 48% to 30%, while the probability of holding rates steady rose from 52% to 70%.

• To reprice these expectations, investors are awaiting the release of new US job-openings data for September, which was delayed for more than 48 hours due to the longest government shutdown on record.

Eurozone Interest Rates

• Money-market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the European Central Bank in December remains steady at around 25%.

• To reprice these expectations, investors are monitoring a range of economic indicators in Europe, in addition to comments from ECB policymakers.

The Japanese yen declined in Asian trading on Thursday against a basket of major and minor currencies, deepening its losses for a fifth consecutive session against the US dollar and hitting the lowest level in ten months, as investors continued to favor the dollar as the most attractive asset, especially after the reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

The losses also came amid market expectations that the new Japanese government led by Sanae Takaichi will introduce a large stimulus package supported by low interest rates to boost weak economic activity in the country. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama denied that exchange-rate issues were discussed during the meeting between the prime minister and the Bank of Japan governor.

Price Overview

• USD/JPY today: the dollar rose more than 0.2% against the yen to 157.47 yen — the highest since January — from an opening level of 157.14 yen, after recording an intraday low of 156.87 yen.

• The yen ended Wednesday’s session down 1.1% against the dollar, marking a fourth straight daily loss, pressured by Takaichi’s stimulus plans and the finance minister’s remarks.

US Dollar

The dollar index rose 0.2% on Thursday, extending gains into a fifth straight session and reaching a two-week high of 100.32 points, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of global counterparts.

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on October 28–29, released Wednesday in Washington, showed that “many” policymakers opposed cutting the Fed’s benchmark rate at that meeting.

The minutes noted that many participants believed that, based on their economic projections, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target rate unchanged through the end of the year.

However, some members indicated that an additional cut in December “could indeed be appropriate if the economy performs roughly in line with their expectations” ahead of the next meeting.

Following the release, and according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, the pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December fell from 48% to 30%, while the probability of leaving rates unchanged rose from 52% to 70%.

Stimulus Package

Kyodo News reported that the Japanese government is planning a stimulus package exceeding 20 trillion yen (about 129 billion dollars) to support the economy amid inflationary pressures and rising living costs. Most of the package is expected to be financed through an additional supplementary budget estimated at 17 trillion yen.

The yen has fallen more than 6% since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was elected leader of her party, despite rising Japanese bond yields, as markets remain concerned about the large amount of borrowing required to fund her stimulus plans.

Finance Minister Katayama

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that no specific discussions took place regarding foreign-exchange levels during Prime Minister Takaichi’s meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda this week. Katayama added that the Japanese government is monitoring the markets very closely.

Japanese Interest Rates

• Market pricing for a Bank of Japan rate hike of 25 basis points in December remains steady at around 35%.

• To reprice these expectations, investors are awaiting additional data on inflation, unemployment, and wage trends in Japan.

Renewable energy is booming across emerging economies, where the economic viability of wind and solar power has made them the obvious choice in most national and regional contexts. More importantly, the rapid shift in renewable-energy economics is not only saving developing countries money but could also deliver substantial financial gains in the coming years.

A recent study from the University of Oxford indicates that low- and middle-income countries stand to benefit the most from adopting renewable energy, with potential GDP gains of around 10% over the next 20 to 25 years if they pursue a rapid transition. The report notes that this renewable-driven economic growth has already begun: investments in renewable energy across the world’s 100 largest developing nations (excluding China) contributed roughly 1.2 trillion dollars to GDP growth between 2017 and 2022 — equivalent to around 2% to 5% of GDP in most of these economies.

The report’s executive summary states: “Renewable energy drives prosperity… and when implemented properly, it can expand affordable energy access, attract investment, create new jobs, and raise productivity across the entire economy.”

Several interconnected factors explain this trend. First, renewable-energy sources have become dramatically cheaper to install and operate. Solar power, in particular, has undergone a remarkable economic transformation, with prices falling by 90% since 2010. Sam Stranks, Professor of Energy and Optoelectronic Materials at the University of Cambridge, told New Scientist: “Solar panels made from silicon now cost roughly the same as plywood.” As a result, renewable energy now delivers far higher investment returns than fossil fuels. The report also notes that green-energy spending tends to remain within the local economy, supporting domestic supply chains and directly increasing local income — unlike the fossil-fuel sector.

Renewables also offer better solutions for rural and underserved areas. “Decentralized energy solutions such as small-scale solar systems or rooftop panels can reach rural regions where electricity grids are costly and unreliable,” Semafor reported.

Pakistan provides a clear example, experiencing a “solar-power revolution” as households increasingly adopt solar-plus-battery systems as a reliable and affordable alternative to local grids, which are expensive, unstable, and often inaccessible. Pakistan has rapidly become “one of the world’s major new adopters of solar power.” Jan Rösner, Head of Energy Programmes at Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute, said: “The scale of solar installations being rolled out in such a short time is unlike anything we’ve seen elsewhere.”

Pakistan is far from alone. Emerging markets are adding renewable capacity at a stunning pace. In recent years, countries such as Brazil, Chile, El Salvador, Morocco, Kenya, and Namibia have surpassed the United States in their clean-energy transition, with 63% of markets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America relying more heavily on solar power for electricity generation than the US does. CNN reported that “some countries are implementing energy transitions at astonishing speed, adding solar capacity so quickly that it has become a major source of electricity within just a few years — not decades.”

This global shift has been enabled largely by China’s low-cost renewable-energy components. Despite concerns about China’s growing influence over the energy sectors of low- and middle-income countries, its affordable supply chains have transformed global energy markets in critical ways. Without access to inexpensive clean energy, many developing economies would have required massive financial support to achieve sustainable growth — funding repeatedly promised by Western powers through climate finance but often not delivered.

Despite ongoing challenges in the clean-energy transition, and even amid political pushback against renewables in the world’s largest economy, renewable energy has simply become too cheap to fail. As New Scientist wrote: “We now have an abundant, cheap electricity source that can be built quickly almost anywhere in the world… Is it really far-fetched to imagine solar providing power for everything one day?”