Gold moves in a negative zone before US inflation data

Gold prices retreated in the European market on Thursday, moving into negative territory under pressure from the continued recovery of the US dollar against a basket of major global currencies, ahead of the release of key US inflation data.

Those data are expected to provide strong clues about the future path of Federal Reserve monetary policy in 2026, especially as markets currently price in two US interest rate cuts next year.

Price Overview

Gold prices today: Gold prices fell by around 0.4% to $4,322.23, from an opening level of $4,338.37, after recording an intraday high at $4,343.31.

At Wednesday’s settlement, gold prices rose by 0.8%, resuming gains that had paused the previous day amid correction and profit-taking activity from a two-month high at $4,353.59 per ounce.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index rose by 0.2% on Thursday, maintaining gains for a second consecutive session, reflecting the continued recovery of the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

This positive performance comes ahead of central bank decisions in Europe and the UK, where European interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, while UK rates are seen being cut by around 25 basis points.

US Interest Rates

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank still has room to cut interest rates amid a cooling labor market.

US President Donald Trump said the new Federal Reserve chair will believe in significantly lower interest rates.

Following these comments, CME FedWatch pricing showed that expectations for keeping US interest rates unchanged at the January 2026 meeting declined from 80% to 72%, while expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut rose from 20% to 28%.

Investors are currently pricing in two US interest rate cuts next year, while the Federal Reserve’s own projections point to a single 25 basis point cut.

US Inflation Data

To reassess these expectations, traders are awaiting the release of key US inflation data for November later today, which are expected to influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path in 2026.

Gold Outlook

Kelvin Wong, Market Analyst for Asia Pacific at OANDA, said that Waller’s comments suggest the Federal Reserve may maintain the current rate-cut cycle, which supports both gold and silver at present. Wong added that some profit-taking could emerge at current levels.

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, increased by about 0.85 metric tons on Wednesday, lifting total holdings to 1,052.54 metric tons.