Gold prices fell more than 4% in European trading on Thursday, pulling back from a two-week high reached earlier in Asian trading, and heading toward their first loss in the past five days, as profit-taking accelerated and amid pressure from the broad strength of the US dollar against a basket of global currencies.

This sharp decline in the precious metal comes after US President Donald Trump’s remarks on developments in the Iran war, in which he confirmed that the United States will continue military operations against Iran in the coming weeks.

With global oil prices rising again, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year have strengthened. To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting further key data on the US labor market.

Price Overview

Gold prices today: gold fell 4.3% to $4,554.28, down from the session opening level of $4,758.10, after hitting a high of $4,800.38, the highest level since March 19.

At Wednesday’s settlement, gold rose 1.9%, marking its fourth consecutive daily gain, supported by a weaker US dollar following reports that Trump is seeking to exit the war with Iran.

US dollar

The dollar index rose 0.65% on Thursday, resuming gains that had paused over the past two sessions, reflecting broad strength in the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

Dollar buying as a preferred safe-haven asset resumed following US President Donald Trump’s address to the nation regarding developments in the Iran war.

Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said Trump’s remarks did not reassure markets, noting that markets are beginning to realize that the war is likely to escalate before it de-escalates.

Kong added that the US dollar is expected to rise further against all major currencies, especially as markets recognize that the global economy will experience a noticeable slowdown.

Trump’s speech

Trump focused on several key points regarding the trajectory of the Iran war, most notably:

• The military operation against Iran will continue until all objectives are achieved.

• Major military operations will continue for only two to three more weeks.

• Iranian energy infrastructure will be targeted if no agreement is reached.

• The United States does not need Middle East oil, and US oil production will rise significantly soon.

• The United States does not need the Strait of Hormuz, and the strait will reopen automatically once the conflict ends.

• Countries affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should act to protect this vital shipping route.

Global oil prices

Global oil prices surged by an average of 9% on Thursday, with US crude reaching its highest level in four weeks, amid renewed concerns over continued supply disruptions from the Gulf region due to the closure of Hormuz, especially after the United States stepped back from efforts to reopen this key global energy shipping route.

US interest rates

St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said there is no need to change the Fed’s interest rate policy at the moment amid rising inflation risks.

Following the rise in oil prices, according to the CME FedWatch tool from CME Group, markets reduced pricing for keeping US interest rates unchanged at the April meeting from 99% to 95%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike increased from 1% to 5%.

To reassess these expectations, investors are closely monitoring a series of very important US labor market data releases.

Weekly US jobless claims are due later today, while the March jobs report will be released on Friday.

Gold outlook

Independent metals trader Tai Wong said gold is declining after two strong days, noting that Trump’s speech was aggressive and pointed to offensive plans in the coming weeks, suggesting that the optimism seen in recent days had been excessive and that some pullback is likely ahead of the long weekend.

SPDR fund

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, increased by 3.72 metric tons on Wednesday, marking the second consecutive daily rise and bringing the total to 1,050.99 metric tons.

The euro fell in European trading on Thursday against a basket of global currencies, pulling back from a one-week high against the US dollar and heading toward its first loss in the past three days, as investors turned away from risk and focused on buying the US currency as a preferred safe-haven asset following US President Donald Trump’s speech on developments in the Iran war.

With eurozone inflation exceeding the European Central Bank’s medium-term target due to rising energy prices, expectations for at least one interest rate hike this year have increased, as markets await further key economic data from Europe.

Price Overview

Euro exchange rate today: the euro fell about 0.5% against the dollar to $1.1532, down from the session opening level of $1.1588, after hitting a high of $1.1605.

The euro ended Wednesday’s session up 0.3% against the dollar, marking its second consecutive daily gain and recording a one-week high of $1.1627, amid growing optimism that the Iran war may be nearing an end.

US dollar

The dollar index rose 0.5% on Thursday, resuming gains that had paused over the past two sessions, reflecting renewed strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

Dollar buying as a preferred safe-haven asset resumed following US President Donald Trump’s address to the nation regarding developments in the Iran war.

Trump’s speech

Trump focused on several key points regarding the trajectory of the Iran war, most notably:

• The objectives of the war with Iran are nearly complete, and Tehran no longer poses a real threat.

• Energy and oil infrastructure could be targeted if negotiations are not satisfactory.

• Major military operations will continue for only two to three more weeks.

• The United States does not need Middle East oil, and US oil production will rise significantly soon.

• The United States has abundant gas supplies.

• The United States does not need the Strait of Hormuz, and the strait will reopen automatically once the conflict ends.

• Countries affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should act to protect their interests.

Opinions and analysis

Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said Trump’s remarks did not reassure markets, noting that markets are beginning to realize that the war is likely to escalate before it de-escalates.

Kong added that the US dollar is expected to rise further against all major currencies, especially as markets recognize that the global economy will experience a noticeable slowdown.

European interest rates

ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that the bank is ready to raise interest rates even if the expected rise in inflation is temporary.

Data released on Tuesday showed that eurozone inflation exceeded the European Central Bank’s target, reaching 2.5% in March as energy prices rose.

Following the data, money markets increased pricing for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the European Central Bank at the April meeting from 30% to 35%.

Sources told Reuters that the European Central Bank is likely to begin discussing interest rate hikes at this month’s meeting.

To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting further economic data from the eurozone on inflation, unemployment, and wage levels.

The Japanese yen fell in Asian trading on Thursday against a basket of major and minor currencies, extending its losses for the second consecutive day against the US dollar, as investors turned away from risk and focused on buying the US currency as a preferred safe-haven asset following US President Donald Trump’s speech on developments in the Iran war.

With increasing signs of easing inflationary pressures on policymakers at the Bank of Japan, expectations for a Japanese interest rate hike in April have declined, as markets await further economic data from Japan.

Price Overview

Japanese yen exchange rate today: the US dollar rose 0.45% against the yen to ¥159.48, up from the session opening level of ¥158.77, after hitting a low of ¥158.54.

The yen ended Wednesday’s session down less than 0.1% against the dollar, marking its first loss in the past three days, after earlier reaching a one-week high of ¥158.27.

US dollar

The dollar index rose 0.5% on Thursday, resuming gains that had paused over the past two sessions, reflecting renewed strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

Dollar buying as a preferred safe-haven asset resumed following US President Donald Trump’s address to the nation regarding developments in the Iran war.

Trump’s speech

Trump focused on several key points regarding the trajectory of the Iran war, most notably:

• The objectives of the war with Iran are nearly complete, and Tehran no longer poses a real threat.

• He may target energy and oil infrastructure if negotiations are not satisfactory.

• Major military operations will continue for only two to three more weeks.

• The United States does not need Middle East oil, and US oil production will rise significantly soon.

• The United States has abundant gas supplies.

• The United States does not need the Strait of Hormuz, and the strait will reopen automatically once the conflict ends.

• Countries affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz should act to protect their interests.

Opinions and analysis

Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said Trump’s remarks did not reassure markets, noting that markets are beginning to realize that the war is likely to escalate before it de-escalates.

Kong added that the US dollar is expected to rise further against all major currencies, especially as markets recognize that the global economy will experience a noticeable slowdown.

Japanese interest rates

Data released this week in Japan showed a slowdown in core inflation in Tokyo during March, in the latest sign of easing inflationary pressures on policymakers at the Bank of Japan.

Following the data, markets reduced pricing for the probability of a quarter-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the April meeting from 25% to 15%.

To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting further data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan.

Wall Street ended Wednesday’s session with strong gains, driven by a rise in Alphabet and other major stocks, after US President Donald Trump signaled that the conflict in the Middle East may be nearing an end. Trump told Reuters hours before his speech on the war: “We will get out of Iran quickly,” adding that Washington could return to carry out “targeted strikes” if necessary.

Thomas Martin, portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, said that Trump’s statements sometimes change and everyone is trying to interpret what he actually means, noting that markets hope for a positive outcome and for the war to end soon.

Major technology stocks advanced, with Alphabet rising 3.4%, while Meta Platforms and Amazon each posted gains of more than 1%. Wall Street extended gains for a second consecutive day as investors bet that the US-Israeli war on Iran could end soon, after higher energy prices last month fueled global inflation concerns due to disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

In terms of index performance, the S&P 500 remains down about 4% so far in 2026 and is trading below 20 times forward earnings, its lowest valuation multiple in 10 months. The PHLX semiconductor index rose 2.82% for a second straight session, while space-related stocks climbed after SpaceX filed confidentially for an initial public offering, lifting shares of Intuitive Machines by 9%, Planet Labs by 10%, and Rocket Lab by 2%, while the Destiny Tech100 fund, which holds SpaceX shares, rose 9.1%.

On the corporate front, Eli Lilly shares rose 3.8% after the US Food and Drug Administration approved a weight-loss drug called Foundayo, while Intel surged 8.8% after announcing it would buy back Apollo’s stake in its Ireland plant for $14.2 billion. In contrast, Nike shares fell 15.5% to their lowest level in a decade after the company forecast an unexpected decline in fourth-quarter sales.

The S&P 500 closed up 0.72% at 6,575.32 points, the Nasdaq rose 1.16% to 21,840.95 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.48% to 46,565.74 points.

The VIX volatility index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, fell to its lowest level in more than a week.

Oil prices dropped sharply, with the S&P 500 energy index falling 3.9% to its lowest level in more than a week, while airline stocks rose 2.3%.

On the economic front, the ADP report showed steady growth in private payrolls in March, while retail sales recorded their biggest increase in seven months in February, and US manufacturing activity rebounded last month according to the ISM index. Nonfarm payrolls data for March is expected to be the main focus on Friday, although US markets will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.

Amid rising inflation concerns, traders now see interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve by year-end as more likely than cuts. Advancing stocks outnumbered decliners on the S&P 500 by 1.5 to 1, with the index recording six new highs and 12 new lows, while the Nasdaq posted 63 new highs and 102 new lows.

Trading volume on US exchanges reached 18.8 billion shares, compared to an average of 20.2 billion shares over the past 20 sessions.