Gold prices fell by more than 1% in European trading on Monday, retreating from a two-week high and heading toward their first loss in three sessions, amid profit-taking and corrective selling pressure. The precious metal also came under pressure from a stronger US dollar and rising oil prices as a new wave of military strikes was exchanged between the United States and Iran.

The latest round of attacks comes as Washington and Tehran continue negotiations aimed at ending the three-month conflict, with US President Donald Trump seeking stricter conditions related to Iran’s nuclear program.

Higher oil prices have revived inflation concerns, increasing pressure on Federal Reserve policymakers and boosting expectations for a US interest rate hike later this year, pending additional economic data and comments from Fed officials.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Spot gold fell 1.1% to $4,490.64 per ounce, down from the opening level of $4,540.17, after reaching an intraday high of $4,546.05.

• At Friday’s settlement, gold gained 0.95%, marking its second consecutive daily advance and reaching a two-week high of $4,595.33 per ounce, supported by progress in peace negotiations between the United States and Iran.

• Gold lost approximately 1.8% during May, recording its third consecutive monthly decline due to weaker investment demand amid rising global government bond yields.

US dollar

The dollar index rose 0.15% on Monday as part of a recovery from a two-week low, reflecting renewed strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The advance comes amid heightened caution and reduced risk appetite after the United States and Iran exchanged a new round of military strikes while continuing intensive negotiations aimed at ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy trade routes.

Global oil prices

Oil prices jumped more than 3% on Monday, recovering from five-week lows as military tensions escalated in the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel expanded its offensive in Lebanon, reducing hopes for a ceasefire across the Middle East.

Latest developments in the Iranian war

• The United States announced strikes on Iranian military sites, and Tehran responded with an attack on an air base.

• The US military said it destroyed Iranian air defense systems, a ground control station, and two drones.

• Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced that it had retaliated by launching an attack on a US air base.

• Reports indicated that Kuwaiti air defenses intercepted missiles and drone attacks.

• The United States and Iran remain without an agreement to end the war after Trump stated that he is not in a hurry to finalize a deal.

• The US president returned the proposed agreement draft with Iran to include “stricter” conditions related to the nuclear file, extending negotiations for several additional days.

• Donald Trump said on Friday that he would make a decision soon regarding the proposed agreement to extend the ceasefire with Iran.

• The mechanism for releasing frozen Iranian assets abroad remains one of the most complex points of disagreement between Washington and Tehran.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that messages continue to be exchanged with Washington, noting that the success of the talks will ultimately be judged by their final outcome and whether the rights of the Iranian people are preserved.

US interest rates

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said on Friday that the consequences of the Middle East conflict could generate more persistent inflationary pressures, potentially requiring a reassessment of the future path of US monetary policy.

• According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market pricing for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December increased from 47% to 53%.

• Markets continue to price a 99% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged at the June meeting, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike stands at 1%.

• To reassess those expectations, investors are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data releases and comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Gold outlook

Ricardo Evangelista, analyst at ActivTrades, said: “The optimism surrounding US-Iran negotiations to end the confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz faded over the weekend. As a result, oil prices rebounded, reviving inflation concerns and reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook.”

Evangelista added: “Traders will be closely watching this week’s key economic data releases, as they could reshape expectations regarding the future path of Federal Reserve policy, influencing demand for the US dollar and, consequently, gold prices.”

SPDR Gold Trust

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined by 3.42 metric tons on Friday, marking a second consecutive daily decrease. Total holdings fell to 1,029.14 metric tons, the lowest level since October 15, 2025.

The euro weakened in European trading on Monday against a basket of global currencies, pulling back from a two-week high against the US dollar and heading toward its first loss in three sessions, as profit-taking and corrective selling emerged amid a cautious mood across global markets ahead of developments in ongoing peace negotiations between the United States and Iran.

Following media reports and rising global oil prices, expectations for a European Central Bank interest rate hike at this month's meeting have increased. Investors are now awaiting the release of the Eurozone’s key inflation data for May on Tuesday to reassess those expectations.

Price Overview

• Euro exchange rate today: The euro fell about 0.15% against the dollar to $1.1642, from an opening level of $1.1658, after reaching an intraday high of $1.1659.

• The euro ended Friday up about 0.1% against the dollar, marking its second consecutive daily gain and reaching a two-week high of $1.1686 amid easing military tensions between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

• During May, the euro lost 0.65% against the US dollar, recording its third monthly decline in the past four months due to risk aversion and rising US Treasury yields.

US dollar

The dollar index rose 0.15% on Monday as part of a recovery from a two-week low, reflecting renewed strength in the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

The advance comes amid cautious market sentiment and reduced risk-taking as investors await the outcome of negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding an end to the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy trade routes.

Global oil prices

Oil prices jumped more than 2% on Monday, rebounding from five-week lows as Israel expanded its offensive in Lebanon, reducing hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East.

Latest developments in the Iranian war

• The United States and Iran remain without an agreement to end the war after Trump stated that he is not in a hurry to finalize a deal.

• The US president returned the proposed agreement draft with Iran to include “stricter” conditions related to the nuclear file, extending negotiations for several additional days.

• Donald Trump said on Friday that he would make a decision soon regarding the proposed agreement to extend the ceasefire with Iran.

• The mechanism for releasing frozen Iranian assets abroad remains one of the most complex points of disagreement between Washington and Tehran.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that messages continue to be exchanged with Washington, noting that the success of the talks will ultimately be judged by their final outcome and whether the rights of the Iranian people are preserved.

European interest rates

• Sources told Reuters that the European Central Bank is highly likely to raise interest rates in June due to inflation expectations moving toward an undesirable scenario.

• Amid the rebound in global oil prices, money markets increased the probability of a 25-basis-point ECB rate hike in June from 55% to 65%.

• To reassess those expectations, investors are awaiting the release of the Eurozone’s key inflation data for May on Tuesday.

The Japanese yen weakened in Asian trading on Monday against a basket of major and minor currencies, moving into negative territory against the US dollar and approaching its lowest level in four weeks, as caution and uncertainty dominate global markets ahead of further developments in peace negotiations between the United States and Iran.

Investors are also awaiting the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting later this month, when policymakers will reassess monetary tools and decide on interest rates amid differing views within the policy board regarding the central bank’s next move.

Price Overview

• Japanese yen exchange rate today: The dollar rose about 0.2% against the yen to ¥159.50, from Friday’s closing level of ¥159.23, and recorded an intraday low of ¥159.30.

• The yen ended Friday’s trading virtually unchanged against the dollar after gaining 0.2% in the previous session as part of a recovery from a four-week low of ¥159.65.

• During May, the yen lost 1.7% against the US dollar, marking its third monthly decline in the past four months, largely due to higher US Treasury yields.

US dollar

The dollar index rose more than 0.1% on Monday as part of a recovery from a two-week low, reflecting renewed strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The advance comes amid cautious market sentiment and reduced risk-taking as investors await the outcome of ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding an end to the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy trade routes.

Global oil prices

Oil prices jumped more than 2% on Monday, rebounding from five-week lows as Israel expanded its offensive in Lebanon, reducing hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East.

Latest developments in the Iranian war

• The United States and Iran remain without an agreement to end the war after Trump stated that he is not in a hurry to finalize a deal.

• The US president returned the proposed agreement draft with Iran to include “stricter” conditions related to the nuclear file, extending negotiations for several additional days.

• Donald Trump said on Friday that he would make a decision soon regarding the proposed agreement to extend the ceasefire with Iran.

• The mechanism for releasing frozen Iranian assets abroad remains one of the most complex points of disagreement between Washington and Tehran.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that messages continue to be exchanged with Washington, noting that the success of the talks will ultimately be judged by their final outcome and whether the rights of the Iranian people are preserved.

Japanese interest rates

• The Bank of Japan will meet on June 15-16 to assess monetary policy options appropriate for developments in the world’s fourth-largest economy.

• Market pricing for a quarter-point interest rate increase at the June meeting currently stands at around 60%.

• Markets are eagerly awaiting a speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Wednesday for clues on whether the central bank intends to proceed with a rate hike in June.

• Investors are also awaiting additional data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan to reassess those expectations.

The ¥160 threshold

Japanese authorities continue to closely monitor movements in the local currency, particularly as the yen weakens toward the critical ¥160-per-dollar level, which has long been viewed as a threshold that could trigger renewed intervention in the foreign exchange market.

Reuters sources previously reported that Tokyo intervened several times in late April and early May to halt the yen’s decline, although the currency’s recovery proved short-lived. At the time, the exchange rate reached ¥159.25 per dollar, its weakest level since April 30.

US President Donald Trump said Friday morning that he would meet in the “Situation Room” to make a “final decision” after outlining a set of conditions that Iran must accept before he approves an agreement to end the war.

It was not immediately clear from Trump’s statement on Truth Social which of his key demands had already been incorporated into the preliminary agreement currently being negotiated by US and Iranian officials to end the three-month conflict.

Trump demanded that Iran agree never to possess a nuclear weapon and that the Strait of Hormuz be “opened immediately” to shipping traffic without any restrictions or transit fees.

He also stated that the US naval blockade against Iran in the Gulf of Oman “will be lifted now,” although it was unclear whether he meant that this step would occur only if the previous conditions were met.

Trump added that the enriched material buried at sites targeted during last year’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities “will be extracted” by the United States “in close coordination and cooperation with the Islamic Republic of Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency,” before being destroyed.

He also said: “No funds will be exchanged until further notice,” adding that “other less important provisions have been agreed upon.”

Trump concluded by saying: “I am now heading to the Situation Room to make the final decision.”

Oil prices fell following Trump’s post.

Disagreements over the agreement’s text

The exact terms of the agreement remain unclear. Later on Friday, Iran’s Fars News Agency responded to Trump’s statement, saying it included issues that “contradict the provisions of the agreement text.”

The agency said in a Telegram post, citing informed sources, that there is no clause in the agreement requiring the strait to remain open without fees.

It also stated that the draft agreement contains no reference to Iran dismantling or destroying its nuclear materials.

Fars emphasized that “the most important part of the agreement” is the “immediate payment of $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets,” adding that Iran will reject any further negotiations unless that payment is made.

The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment regarding Trump’s remarks and the Fars response.

A White House official had confirmed on Thursday an Axios report stating that US and Iranian negotiators had reached a 60-day memorandum of understanding that would extend the current ceasefire and open the door to nuclear talks.

According to the report, the memorandum would also lift restrictions on navigation through the strait and require Iran to remove all mines from the waterway within 30 days in exchange for the United States lifting its blockade.

The issue of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile and enrichment program would be a top priority during the 60-day period, according to the Axios report. The draft is also expected to pave the way for negotiations on sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian funds.

The status of the Strait of Hormuz

Trump’s recent signals suggesting progress toward a US-Iran peace agreement contrast with continued military and economic escalation between the two countries, as well as ongoing anti-American rhetoric from Iranian officials.

The Pentagon announced Thursday morning that Iran had launched a ballistic missile toward Kuwait and deployed attack drones in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media also reported late Thursday that Iranian armed forces launched missiles toward undisclosed targets.

The US Treasury Department announced new sanctions against Iran on Wednesday and Thursday, including measures targeting Tehran’s recent efforts to assert control over transit traffic through the strait.

In posts on X before Trump’s Friday remarks, Iranian officials appeared defiant toward the United States, praising relations with neighboring Middle Eastern countries, including Oman, which has recently been the subject of Trump’s threats.

According to reports, Oman has been holding discussions with Iran regarding transit fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital global oil shipping route where traffic has been severely disrupted by Iranian threats since the outbreak of the war.

During a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday, Trump said: “Oman will behave like everyone else, or we’ll have to bomb them.”

On Thursday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned Oman that the United States would “aggressively target” any party involved in “facilitating the imposition of fees” on passage through the strait.

In a translated post on X attributed to Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on Friday morning, a vague but sharply worded description of the negotiations was offered.

The account wrote: “We extract concessions not through dialogue but through missiles; negotiations merely make them understand that.”

It added: “We do not trust guarantees or words. Actions alone are the standard. No step will be taken before the other side moves.”

The statement continued: “The winner of any agreement is the side most prepared for war the next day.”

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he had spoken with his Omani counterpart and “reaffirmed Iran’s solidarity with Oman in the face of any threat.”