Gold prices lost more than 2% in European markets on Monday at the start of the week's trading, continuing their losses for the second consecutive day, moving away from a three-week high, as correction and profit-taking operations continue, in addition to pressure from the rise of the U.S. dollar after the failure of peace talks between the United States and Iran in Pakistan.

With the escalation of U.S. threats to impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports, global oil prices jumped by more than 10%, in a development that brings concerns of accelerating global inflation back to the forefront and increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the near term.

Price overview

• Gold prices today: Gold metal prices fell by 2.2% to ($4,644.52), from the opening level of trading at ($4,749.45), and recorded a high of ($4,749.45).

• Upon price settlement on Friday, gold prices lost 0.4%, in the first loss within the last four days, due to correction and profit-taking operations from a three-week high at $4,857.56 per ounce.

• Last week, gold prices achieved an increase of 1.55%, in the second consecutive weekly gain, thanks to the decline of the U.S. dollar after the announcement of the two-week truce in the Iranian war.

The U.S. Dollar

The dollar index rose on Monday at the start of the week's trading by 0.5%, beginning a broad recovery from its lowest levels in a month, reflecting the rise in the levels of the American currency against a basket of global currencies.

As we know, the rise in the levels of the American currency makes gold bullion priced in U.S. dollars less attractive to buyers holding other currencies.

Aside from buying operations from low levels, U.S. dollar levels rose due to fears of renewed war in the Middle East region after the collapse of peace talks between the United States and Iran in Pakistan.

Saul Kavonic, an analyst at MST Marquee, said: The market has now largely returned to its status before the ceasefire.

Updates on the Iranian war

• The talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad ended in a deadlock.

• Washington's insistence on a complete dismantling of what remains of uranium enrichment facilities in Iran.

• Tehran's demand for an immediate lifting of all economic sanctions before extending the truce.

• Trump says that the United States will impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz after the failure of peace talks with Iran.

• Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz starting at 10:00 AM U.S. Eastern Time on Monday.

• Trump believes that Iran will continue the dialogue; Tehran seeks a "balanced and fair agreement."

• Iran warns of a harsh response to the blockade and accuses the United States of being intransigent in negotiations.

• The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump and his advisors are considering launching limited strikes on Iran.

Global oil prices

Oil prices jumped by more than 10% on Monday after the failure of U.S.-Iranian talks to reach an agreement, leaving the fragile ceasefire hanging and continuing to choke energy exports from the Middle East.

Undoubtedly, the rise in global oil prices renews fears of accelerating inflation, which may push global central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, to raise interest rates in the near term, in a sharp shift from pre-war expectations of cutting or fixing U.S. interest rates for a long period.

U.S. interest rates

• After the rise in oil prices and according to the "FedWatch" tool of the CME Group: pricing of the probability of keeping U.S. interest rates unchanged at the April meeting declined from 99% to 96%, and pricing of the probability of raising interest rates by about 25 basis points rose from 1% to 4%.

• In order to re-price those probabilities, investors are closely following the release of more economic data from the United States.

Gold performance expectations

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said: Optimism regarding the ceasefire faded after the failure of peace talks, and the resulting rise in dollar and oil prices led to gold retreating again.

Waterer added: Once oil prices exceed $100, eyes quickly turn to the possibility of central banks raising interest rates to curb inflation, and these expectations regarding interest rates are what weaken gold's performance.

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, remained largely unchanged on Friday, leaving the total at 1,052.42 metric tons, which is the lowest level in about a week.

The euro fell in European trading on Monday against a basket of global currencies, for the first time in the last six days against the U.S. dollar, moving away from a five-week high due to correction and profit-taking operations, in addition to renewed buying of the American currency as the best alternative investment, especially after the collapse of peace talks between the United States and Iran in Pakistan.

With the escalation of U.S. threats to impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports, global oil prices jumped by more than 10%, in a development that brings concerns of accelerating global inflation back to the forefront and increases pressure on central banks to take steps closer toward raising interest rates in the near term.

Price overview

- Euro exchange rate today: The euro fell against the dollar by 0.5% to ($1.1664), from Friday's closing price at ($1.1723), and recorded a high during today's trading at ($1.1690).

- The euro ended Friday's trading up by 0.2% against the dollar, in its fifth consecutive daily gain, and recorded a five-week high at $1.1740, prior to the start of peace talks between the United States and Iran.

- During the past week, the euro achieved an increase of 1.8% against the dollar, its second consecutive weekly gain and its largest weekly gain since last January, thanks to the agreement between the United States and Iran on a two-week ceasefire, which included opening the Strait of Hormuz to global navigation.

The U.S. Dollar

The dollar index rose on Monday at the start of the week's trading by 0.5%, beginning a broad recovery from its lowest levels in a month, reflecting the rise in the levels of the American currency against a basket of global currencies.

Aside from buying operations from low levels, U.S. dollar levels rose due to fears of renewed war in the Middle East region after the collapse of peace talks between the United States and Iran in Pakistan.

Saul Kavonic, an analyst at MST Marquee, said: The market has now largely returned to its status before the ceasefire.

Updates on the Iranian war

- The talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad ended in a deadlock.

- Washington's insistence on a complete dismantling of what remains of uranium enrichment facilities in Iran.

- Tehran's demand for an immediate lifting of all economic sanctions before extending the truce.

- Trump says that the United States will impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz after the failure of peace talks with Iran.

- Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz starting at 10:00 AM U.S. Eastern Time on Monday.

- Trump believes that Iran will continue the dialogue; Tehran seeks a "balanced and fair agreement."

- Iran warns of a harsh response to the blockade and accuses the United States of being intransigent in negotiations.

- The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump and his advisors are considering launching limited strikes on Iran.

Global oil prices

Oil prices jumped by more than 10% on Monday after the failure of U.S.-Iranian talks to reach an agreement, leaving the fragile ceasefire hanging and continuing to choke energy exports from the Middle East.

Undoubtedly, the rise in global oil prices renews fears of accelerating inflation, which may push global central banks, especially the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, to raise interest rates in the near term, in a sharp shift from pre-war expectations of cutting or fixing interest rates for a long period.

European interest rates

- Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, said: The bank is ready to raise interest rates even if the expected rise in inflation is short-term.

- The money market pricing of the probabilities of the European Central Bank raising European interest rates by about 25 basis points in April is currently stable around 35%.

- Sources reported to Reuters that the European Central Bank is likely to begin discussing raising interest rates during the meeting of this month.

- In order to re-price the above probabilities, investors await the release of more economic data in the eurozone regarding the levels of inflation, unemployment, and wages.

The Japanese yen fell in Asian trading on Monday against a basket of major and minor currencies, continuing its losses for the third consecutive day against the U.S. dollar, amid renewed buying operations of the American currency as the best alternative investment, especially after the collapse of peace talks between the United States and Iran in Pakistan. 

With the escalation of U.S. threats to impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports, global oil prices jumped by more than 10%, in a development that brings concerns of accelerating global inflation back to the forefront and increases pressure on central banks to take steps closer toward raising interest rates in the near term. 

Price overview 

- Japanese yen exchange rate today: The dollar rose against the yen by nearly 0.4% to (159.85¥), from Friday's closing price at (159.24¥), and recorded a low during today's trading at (159.50¥). 

- The yen ended Friday's trading down by 0.2% against the dollar, in its second consecutive daily loss. 

- Last week, the yen achieved an increase of 0.2% against the dollar, its second consecutive weekly gain, thanks to the agreement between the United States and Iran on a two-week ceasefire, which included opening the Strait of Hormuz to global navigation. 

The U.S. Dollar 

The dollar index rose on Monday at the start of the week's trading by 0.5%, beginning a broad recovery from its lowest levels in a month, reflecting the rise in the levels of the American currency against a basket of global currencies. 

Aside from buying operations from low levels, U.S. dollar levels rose due to fears of renewed war in the Middle East region after the collapse of peace talks between the United States and Iran in Pakistan. 

Saul Kavonic, an analyst at MST Marquee, said: The market has now largely returned to its status before the ceasefire. 

Updates on the Iranian war 

- The talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad ended in a deadlock. 

- Washington's insistence on a complete dismantling of what remains of uranium enrichment facilities in Iran. 

- Tehran's demand for an immediate lifting of all economic sanctions before extending the truce. 

- Trump says that the United States will impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz after the failure of peace talks with Iran. 

- Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz starting at 10:00 AM U.S. Eastern Time on Monday. 

- Trump believes that Iran will continue the dialogue; Tehran seeks a "balanced and fair agreement." 

- Iran warns of a harsh response to the blockade and accuses the United States of being intransigent in negotiations. 

- The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump and his advisors are considering launching limited strikes on Iran. 

Global oil prices 

Oil prices jumped by more than 10% on Monday, after the failure of U.S.-Iranian talks to reach an agreement, leaving the fragile ceasefire hanging and continuing to choke energy exports from the Middle East. 

Undoubtedly, the rise in global oil prices renews fears of accelerating inflation, which may push global central banks to raise interest rates in the near term, in a sharp shift from pre-war expectations of cutting or fixing interest rates for a long period. 

Japanese interest rates 

- The pricing of the probabilities of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in the April meeting is currently stable around 10%. 

- In order to re-price those probabilities, investors await the release of more data on the levels of inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan.

Soybean prices rose during mid-day trading on Friday, recording gains ranging between 7 and 13 cents, supported mainly by a rise in soybean meal and technical purchases. The national average cash price for soybeans also rose by about 13 cents to reach $11.10 and a quarter.

Soybean meal futures experienced a strong rise ranging between $12 and $15 during the mid-session, while soybean oil contracts declined by about 50 to 53 points.

The United States Department of Agriculture announced a private export deal to sell 100,000 metric tons of soybean meal to Italy this morning.

Export sales data released on Thursday showed that total export commitments reached 37.905 million metric tons, a decrease of 18% compared to the same period last year. This level represents about 90% of the USDA's new estimates, which is lower than the usual average pace of 95%.

Actual shipments reached 30.52 million metric tons, equivalent to 73% of the department's estimates, which is also lower than the usual performance average of 84%.

In the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the USDA revealed some adjustments in demand forecasts, as the crushing volume was raised by 35 million bushels, while exports were reduced by the same amount, keeping total ending stocks unchanged at 350 million bushels.

The expected average cash price was also raised by 10 cents to reach $10.30.

As for the May 2026 futures contracts, soybean prices recorded $11.78 and a quarter, an increase of 13 cents.