Gold prices rose in European trading on Thursday, extending gains for a second consecutive session and holding near a four-week high, supported by renewed safe-haven demand ahead of US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled to begin later today in Geneva.

The rally was also supported by weakness in the US dollar in the foreign-exchange market, despite declining expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. Markets are still waiting for additional signals on the direction of US monetary policy throughout the year.

Price Overview

Gold prices today: Gold climbed 0.8% to $5,205.91 per ounce, up from the session opening level of $5,165.55, while recording an intraday low of $5,155.73.

At Wednesday’s settlement, gold prices rose 0.45%, resuming gains after a brief pause driven by correction and profit-taking from a four-week high of $5,249.88 per ounce.

US–Iran Talks

US envoy Steve Witkoff, alongside Jared Kushner, son-in-law of President Donald Trump, is scheduled to meet an Iranian delegation in Geneva later today for the third round of talks concerning the nuclear الملف, reflecting continued diplomatic efforts despite rising tensions.

Trump had hinted during his State of the Union address on Tuesday at the possibility of striking Iran, stressing that he would not allow — in his words — “the world’s largest sponsor of terrorism” to obtain a nuclear weapon, highlighting a tougher stance on the issue.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index declined 0.15% on Thursday, extending losses for a second session, reflecting continued weakness in the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

The decline followed increased market uncertainty after Trump’s State of the Union speech, which failed to provide reassurance regarding trade policy stability following the Supreme Court decision that invalidated previous tariffs.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday that tariff rates on some countries could rise to 15% or more compared with the recently imposed 10%, without specifying trading partners or offering further details.

US Interest Rates

• Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he is open to keeping interest rates unchanged at the March meeting if February labor market data suggest employment conditions have “stabilized” after weaker performance in 2025.

• According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets currently price a 95% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged in March, while the probability of a 25-basis-point cut stands at 5%.

• To reprice those expectations, investors are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data along with comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Gold Outlook

Carlo Alberto De Casa, analyst at Swissquote Bank, said that ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran, combined with global economic uncertainty driven by President Trump’s tariff policies, are supporting gold prices.

He added that global demand for gold has not yet faded, noting that overall sentiment remains positive, with strong buying from Asia and central banks.

SPDR Gold Trust

Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, increased by 3.43 metric tons on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive daily increase and lifting total holdings to 1,097.62 metric tons, the highest level since April 26, 2022.

The euro rose in European trading on Thursday against a basket of global currencies, moving in positive territory for a second consecutive day versus the US dollar, supported by weakness in the US currency amid uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff policies.

The euro’s gains come ahead of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s testimony before the European Parliament in Brussels, where her comments are expected to provide fresh clues on the path of European interest rates throughout this year.

Price Overview

• Euro exchange rate today: The euro rose about 0.2% against the dollar to 1.1829, compared with an opening level of 1.1810, after recording an intraday low at 1.1804.

• The euro ended Wednesday’s session up 0.3% against the dollar, marking its third gain in the past four days, supported by recovery buying from a four-week low at 1.1742.

US Dollar

The dollar index fell 0.15% on Thursday, extending losses for a second straight session, reflecting continued weakness in the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

This decline followed President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address to Congress, which increased market uncertainty as it failed to provide sufficient reassurance about trade policy stability after the Supreme Court invalidated previous tariffs.

The US Supreme Court ruled on Friday that the emergency tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump were invalid. In response, Trump activated new tariffs under a rarely used law known as “Section 122,” which allows duties of up to 15% but requires congressional approval to extend them beyond 150 days. Trump said he would use the 150-day window to develop new tariffs that comply with legal frameworks.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday that tariff rates on certain countries could rise to 15% or higher, compared with the recently imposed 10% rate, though he did not specify which trading partners would be affected.

European Interest Rates

• Money market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the European Central Bank in March remains stable around 25%.

• Traders have adjusted expectations from keeping rates unchanged throughout this year to pricing in at least one 25-basis-point cut.

Christine Lagarde

To reprice those expectations, investors later today will closely watch ECB President Christine Lagarde’s testimony before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, scheduled to begin at 08:30 GMT.

Euro Outlook

At FX News Today, we expect that if Lagarde’s comments come in more hawkish than markets currently anticipate, expectations for ECB rate cuts this year would decline, leading to further gains in the euro against a basket of global currencies.

The Japanese yen rose in Asian trading on Thursday against a basket of major and minor currencies, attempting to recover from a two-week low versus the US dollar amid renewed buying interest at lower levels, supported by more hawkish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Ueda said the central bank will closely examine economic data during its March and April meetings when deciding whether to raise interest rates, leaving the door open for a potential near-term hike.

Price Overview

• Japanese yen exchange rate today: The US dollar fell 0.4% against the yen to 155.75, compared with an opening level of 156.36, after touching an intraday high of 156.37.

• The yen ended Wednesday’s session down 0.3% against the dollar, marking a second consecutive daily loss and reaching a two-week low of 156.82.

• The decline was attributed to the Japanese government’s appointment of two academics viewed as strong advocates of economic stimulus to the central bank’s policy board, fueling concerns about the pace of future rate hikes.

Kazuo Ueda

In an interview with Yomiuri newspaper, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the bank’s baseline stance remains to “continue raising interest rates” if the probability of achieving the bank’s economic, inflation, and price forecasts increases.

Ueda added that the central bank will carefully analyze incoming data during the upcoming March and April monetary policy meetings to determine whether further rate increases are warranted.

He noted that the outcome of this year’s annual wage negotiations could be a decisive factor. If wage hikes come in stronger than expected and prompt companies to raise prices more quickly, the 2% inflation target could be reached sooner than anticipated.

Ueda also said that underlying inflation has not yet sustainably reached the 2% target, but the bank will calibrate policy to ensure the target is achieved without excessive overshooting, emphasizing that the central bank is not “behind the curve” in addressing elevated inflation risks.

Japanese Interest Rates

• Following these comments, market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate hike at the March meeting rose from 3% to 15%.

• Pricing for a similar hike at the April meeting increased from 30% to 45%.

• In the latest Reuters survey, expectations suggest the Bank of Japan could raise rates to 1% by September.

• Investors are now awaiting further data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan to reassess these probabilities.

New research and analysis by Rystad Energy suggests that a rethink of the European Union’s Arctic policy could help keep Norwegian Barents Sea gas within Europe’s supply mix during the 2030s, offering a nearby and relatively lower-emission source as Europe becomes increasingly reliant on the global LNG market.

The European Commission is currently reviewing its 2021 Arctic policy and has opened a public consultation running until March 16, 2026. Since Barents Sea projects typically require five to ten years to move from discovery to stable production, policy signals issued by the EU today will determine whether additional volumes from currently open Norwegian areas become available by the mid-2030s — or whether Europe will depend more heavily on imported LNG over the next decade.

A More Targeted Policy Without Undermining Climate Goals

Rystad’s analysis suggests that the EU could allow higher production in the Barents Sea by defining clearer geographical and operational boundaries without necessarily weakening its climate policies. This could be achieved by defining the “Arctic” more precisely and linking any activity to strict emissions and environmental safeguards.

Such an approach would allow differentiation between Norwegian areas already open for exploration and more environmentally sensitive zones. However, the proposal is likely to remain controversial among environmental groups and would not fundamentally change the broader debate around Arctic oil and gas drilling, though it could influence how buyers and policymakers assess supply sources during the 2030s.

Under Rystad’s base-case scenario for the EU-27 plus the United Kingdom, Norway is expected to continue supplying around 20%–30% of Europe’s gas demand through 2050, while Europe’s dependence on LNG is projected to rise from 30% to 50%, increasing exposure to global market volatility.

Resource Size and Development Challenges

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate estimates that areas currently open for exploration in the Barents Sea contain around 3.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent in natural gas resources, equal to roughly 22 trillion cubic feet.

Rystad expects projects approved before 2030 to contribute about 2.25 billion barrels of oil equivalent in cumulative production through 2050. Additional output would require new discoveries, coordinated multi-field development, and — most importantly — sufficient export infrastructure.

Infrastructure as a Key Constraint

Infrastructure remains one of the biggest challenges for long-term expansion. A study by Gassco and the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate found that additional export capacity from the Barents Sea could be commercially viable if sufficient production volumes are proven.

Currently, the Hammerfest LNG export terminal is the main outlet, but it is largely tied to the Snøhvit field, limiting flexibility for additional production. A pipeline connecting southward to the Norwegian Sea network is a potential option, but would require large production volumes and coordinated project timelines to justify financing.

Emissions and Environmental Standards

Emissions are a central issue in the ongoing policy review, directly affecting how buyers compare future gas supply sources.

Norwegian production is globally recognized for relatively low emissions, and pipeline gas from Norway is considered a lower-emission option for Europe. At the Snøhvit project, carbon dioxide is captured and reinjected offshore, while planned electrification of the Snøhvit–Hammerfest facilities is expected to further reduce the project’s carbon footprint.

Environmental critics argue that lower emissions intensity does not change the fact that burning gas still adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. However, methane intensity and lifecycle emissions are increasingly being used in procurement and policy frameworks to differentiate between energy sources.

A Managed Approach Rather Than Full Opening

The report argues that fully opening the Arctic for exploration is unrealistic. Instead, a strict regulatory framework could allow continued development in already opened Norwegian areas while excluding environmentally sensitive regions.

Any approvals could be tied to measurable criteria such as:

Limiting methane and carbon dioxide emissions

Ending routine gas flaring

Electrifying facilities where possible

Independent verification and transparent environmental reporting

Additional safeguards may include protection of sensitive ecosystems, seasonal restrictions on operations, and consultation with Sami communities, coastal populations, and the fishing industry.

Energy Security and Market Shifts

Demand security is also a key factor, as periodic policy reviews could reduce stranded-asset risks if gas consumption declines faster than expected.

Ultimately, Europe is likely to compare marginal gas sources rather than add massive new volumes, using emissions and lifecycle metrics to select remaining lower-impact supplies — a shift that could help steer demand toward less carbon-intensive energy sources during the energy transition.