Gold hovers near four-week high before US-Iran talks

Gold prices rose in European trading on Thursday, extending gains for a second consecutive session and holding near a four-week high, supported by renewed safe-haven demand ahead of US-Iran nuclear talks scheduled to begin later today in Geneva.

The rally was also supported by weakness in the US dollar in the foreign-exchange market, despite declining expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. Markets are still waiting for additional signals on the direction of US monetary policy throughout the year.

Price Overview

Gold prices today: Gold climbed 0.8% to $5,205.91 per ounce, up from the session opening level of $5,165.55, while recording an intraday low of $5,155.73.

At Wednesday’s settlement, gold prices rose 0.45%, resuming gains after a brief pause driven by correction and profit-taking from a four-week high of $5,249.88 per ounce.

US–Iran Talks

US envoy Steve Witkoff, alongside Jared Kushner, son-in-law of President Donald Trump, is scheduled to meet an Iranian delegation in Geneva later today for the third round of talks concerning the nuclear الملف, reflecting continued diplomatic efforts despite rising tensions.

Trump had hinted during his State of the Union address on Tuesday at the possibility of striking Iran, stressing that he would not allow — in his words — “the world’s largest sponsor of terrorism” to obtain a nuclear weapon, highlighting a tougher stance on the issue.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index declined 0.15% on Thursday, extending losses for a second session, reflecting continued weakness in the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

The decline followed increased market uncertainty after Trump’s State of the Union speech, which failed to provide reassurance regarding trade policy stability following the Supreme Court decision that invalidated previous tariffs.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday that tariff rates on some countries could rise to 15% or more compared with the recently imposed 10%, without specifying trading partners or offering further details.

US Interest Rates

• Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he is open to keeping interest rates unchanged at the March meeting if February labor market data suggest employment conditions have “stabilized” after weaker performance in 2025.

• According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets currently price a 95% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged in March, while the probability of a 25-basis-point cut stands at 5%.

• To reprice those expectations, investors are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data along with comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Gold Outlook

Carlo Alberto De Casa, analyst at Swissquote Bank, said that ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran, combined with global economic uncertainty driven by President Trump’s tariff policies, are supporting gold prices.

He added that global demand for gold has not yet faded, noting that overall sentiment remains positive, with strong buying from Asia and central banks.

SPDR Gold Trust

Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, increased by 3.43 metric tons on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive daily increase and lifting total holdings to 1,097.62 metric tons, the highest level since April 26, 2022.