Gold prices fell in European trading on Wednesday, resuming losses that were temporarily halted yesterday, trading near their lowest levels in four weeks under pressure from the renewed rise of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market.

The current decline remains limited around the $5,000 per ounce level, as markets await the Federal Reserve’s decisions later today, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, alongside further decisive signals on the path of US monetary policy this year.

Price Overview

Gold prices today: gold fell 0.55% to $4,977.73, from the session opening level of $5,006.61, after reaching a high of $5,016.40.

At Tuesday’s settlement, gold prices were little changed after a wave of losses that lasted for four consecutive days, during which the metal recorded a four-week low of $4,967.61 per ounce.

US dollar

The dollar index rose about 0.2% on Wednesday, resuming gains that had paused over the previous two sessions and moving higher toward a ten-month high, reflecting renewed strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The rise comes as investors continue to buy the dollar as a preferred safe-haven asset amid the escalation of the Iran war, especially following the assassination of Iran’s National Security Council chief Ali Larijani in an Israeli airstrike.

Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve will conclude later today its second regular meeting in 2026 to discuss the appropriate monetary policy for developments in the world’s largest economy, where US interest rates are expected to remain unchanged at the 3.75% range for the second consecutive meeting.

The interest rate decision and the monetary policy statement and economic projections will be released at 18:00 GMT, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak at 18:30 GMT.

The comments and projections are expected to provide further decisive signals about the future path of US interest rates this year, particularly in light of economic developments, especially following the outbreak of the Iran war.

US interest rates

Amid rising oil prices, US President Donald Trump again called on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.

According to the CME FedWatch tool from CME Group, markets price a 99% probability that US interest rates will remain unchanged this week, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike stands at 1%.

Markets also price a 99% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged at the April meeting, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike stands at 1%.

Gold outlook

Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, said the gold market reflects a “delicate balance” between safe-haven demand amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and downside pressure from inflation.

Wyckoff added that he believes gold will likely reach new record highs, but not anytime soon, noting that the upward momentum appears to have faded.

Commerzbank said in a note that the Federal Reserve meeting is unlikely to trigger a rally in gold prices, as uncertainty about the duration of the war and disruptions to oil supplies are expected to push the Fed toward a more cautious stance.

SPDR fund

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined on Tuesday by about 1.15 metric tons, marking the fourth consecutive daily decline and bringing the total to 1,069.56 metric tons, the lowest level since January 9.

The euro rose in European trading on Wednesday against a basket of global currencies, continuing to trade in positive territory for the third consecutive day against the US dollar, as it extends its recovery from a seven-month low, supported by buying activity from lower levels ahead of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting.

The US dollar continues to decline ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions later today, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged for the second consecutive meeting.

Price Overview

Euro exchange rate today: the euro rose by less than 0.1% against the dollar to $1.1545, from the session opening level of $1.1539, after recording a low of $1.1532.

The euro ended Tuesday’s trading up 0.3% against the dollar, marking its second consecutive daily gain, supported by a recovery from a seven-month low of $1.1411.

European Central Bank

The European Central Bank’s second monetary policy meeting of this year begins later today, with decisions to be announced tomorrow Thursday, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged for the sixth consecutive meeting.

The monetary policy statement and comments from Christine Lagarde are expected to provide further strong clues about the path of European interest rates this year, especially amid speculation pointing to a renewed acceleration in inflation due to rising global energy prices.

European interest rates

Money markets price the probability of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates by 25 basis points tomorrow Thursday at 5%.

Amid rising global energy prices, data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) suggests the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates in June.

US dollar

The dollar index fell by less than 0.1% on Wednesday, extending losses for the third consecutive session and reflecting continued weakness in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

Beyond profit-taking activity, the US dollar is declining as investors refrain from building new long positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, while providing further commentary and projections that will shape the path of US monetary policy this year.

The Japanese yen rose in Asian trading on Wednesday against a basket of major and minor currencies, extending its recovery for the third consecutive day against the US dollar and moving away from a 20-month low, supported by buying activity from lower levels ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting.

The US dollar continues to decline ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions later today, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged for the second consecutive meeting.

Price Overview

Japanese yen exchange rate today: the dollar fell 0.1% against the yen to ¥158.80, from the session opening level of ¥158.98, after reaching a high of ¥159.14.

The yen ended Tuesday’s trading up 0.1% against the dollar, marking its second consecutive daily gain, continuing its recovery from a 20-month low of ¥159.75.

Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan’s second monetary policy meeting of 2026 begins later today, with decisions to be announced tomorrow Thursday. The bank will discuss recent economic developments in the world’s fourth-largest economy to determine appropriate monetary tools, as markets await its stance on interest rates and yield curve control amid new global developments.

Japanese interest rates

Markets price the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by a quarter percentage point at this week’s meeting at 5%, while the probability of a quarter-point hike at the April meeting stands at 35%.

In the latest Reuters poll, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to 1% in September.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley and MUFG wrote in a joint research report that they previously viewed the probability of a Japanese interest rate hike in March or April as low, but with rising uncertainty stemming from developments in the Middle East, the Bank of Japan is likely to adopt a more cautious stance, reducing the likelihood of a rate hike in the near term.

US dollar

The dollar index fell by less than 0.1% on Wednesday, extending losses for the third consecutive session and reflecting continued weakness in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

Beyond profit-taking activity, the US dollar is declining as investors refrain from building new long positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, while providing further commentary and projections that will shape the path of US monetary policy this year.

Major Wall Street indices posted modest gains on Tuesday as investors await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision amid rising energy costs driven by the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Shares of airlines and travel companies, which are sensitive to fuel costs and had come under heavy selling pressure recently, saw some recovery after Delta Air Lines and American Airlines raised their revenue forecasts for the current quarter. Delta shares rose more than 4%, while American Airlines gained 2.7%.

However, concerns about prolonged supply disruptions due to the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to support oil prices around $100 per barrel. These concerns, along with inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs, are a key focus of the Federal Reserve meeting, as policymakers balance inflation risks against signs of weakness in the labor market.

The central bank begins its two-day meeting on Tuesday, with traders widely expecting interest rates to remain unchanged in the decision scheduled for Wednesday. Data compiled by LSEG indicates that markets now price in only one 25-basis-point rate cut by the end of the year, compared with expectations of nearly two cuts before the outbreak of the war.

Brokerage firms have raised their energy price forecasts, which are likely to weigh on economic growth, a factor also highlighted by the Reserve Bank of Australia when it raised interest rates earlier in the day.

The interest rate-sensitive financial sector index rose 0.8%, recovering from sharp losses in the previous week when concerns about private credit quality unsettled investors.

Shares of asset managers Blackstone and Apollo Global Management rose more than 3% each, while KKR gained about 3%.

As of 12:07 PM Eastern Time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 72.20 points, or 0.15%, to 47,021.88, while the S&P 500 gained 14.91 points, or 0.22%, to 6,714.29, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 53.68 points, or 0.24%, to 22,427.86.

The CBOE Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, fell 0.62 points to 22.89, its lowest level in more than a week.

Energy stocks rose, with Occidental Petroleum gaining 1.3% alongside peer EQT Corporation, while ConocoPhillips climbed about 2%, supported by higher oil and gas prices.

Despite global disruptions caused by the war, US equities have shown greater resilience compared with their counterparts in Europe and Asia, amid expectations that the impact of the conflict on the economy will be less severe.

However, analysts indicate that investors have not yet fully priced in the implications of the war for the global economy.

The conflict has also led to the postponement of a planned summit between US and China leaders at the request of President Donald Trump.

In other moves, Eli Lilly shares fell 5.2% after HSBC downgraded the pharmaceutical company to “reduce” from “hold.”

Meanwhile, Uber shares rose 5.1% after announcing plans to launch autonomous taxi services in 28 cities starting next year, using Nvidia’s self-driving software.