Gold prices fell in the European market on Wednesday, giving up a two-week high reached earlier in Asian trading, as correction and profit-taking activity picked up, alongside pressure from a stronger US dollar against a basket of global currencies.

On Thursday and Friday, investors await key US economic data to reprice expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts in September and October.

Price Overview

Gold fell 0.6% to 3,373.91 dollars, from the opening level of 3,393.46 dollars, after reaching a high of 3,394.25 dollars, its strongest since August 11.

At Tuesday’s settlement, gold gained 0.8%, its second daily rise in three sessions, on safe-haven demand amid concerns over Fed stability.

US Dollar

The dollar index rose 0.5% on Wednesday, resuming gains after a temporary pause yesterday, nearing its highest level in several weeks, reflecting the US currency’s rise against a basket of major and minor peers.

After the shock caused by US President Donald Trump’s attempt to dismiss Lisa Cook from her position on the Federal Reserve Board, markets were unsettled over the Fed’s independence.

However, those concerns quickly eased as it became clear the matter was likely to turn into a lengthy legal dispute, giving markets some reassurance.

US Interest Rates

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool: the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September is currently steady at 87%, while the probability of no change stands at 13%.

The probability of a 25-basis-point cut in October is steady at 94%, while the probability of no change stands at 6%.

To reprice these expectations, investors await important US data, including second-quarter GDP growth and jobless claims on Thursday, and the July Personal Consumption Expenditures report on Friday.

Outlook for Gold

Kelvin Wong, market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA, said: “Short-term speculators are taking some profits right now. However, gold remains supported, especially as we start to see a more cautious Fed stance.”

Wong added: “In the near term, we expect continued upward pressure, potentially testing the 3,400-dollar level, with 3,435 dollars an ounce above that.”

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose by 1.43 metric tons yesterday, the second consecutive daily increase, bringing the total to 959.92 metric tons, the highest since August 19.

The euro fell in the European market on Wednesday against a basket of global currencies, trading near a two-week low against the US dollar, as renewed buying of the US currency as the best available investment took hold, amid easing concerns over Federal Reserve stability.

With current odds low for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates in September—for the second consecutive meeting—investors later this week await key August inflation data from Germany and Spain.

Price Overview

The euro fell against the dollar by 0.25% to 1.1612 dollars, from the opening level of 1.1642 dollars, recording a high of 1.1647 dollars.

The euro ended Tuesday up 0.1% against the dollar, its second gain in the past three days, as part of a recovery from a two-week low of 1.1583 dollars.

US Dollar

The dollar index rose nearly 0.3% on Wednesday, resuming gains after a temporary pause yesterday, reflecting the US currency’s rise against a basket of major and minor counterparts.

After the shock caused by US President Donald Trump’s attempt to dismiss Lisa Cook from her position on the Federal Reserve Board, markets were unsettled over the future of the central bank’s independence.

However, those concerns quickly eased as it became clear the matter was likely to turn into a lengthy legal dispute, giving markets some reassurance.

European Interest Rates

Five sources told Reuters that the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged next month, though discussions on further cuts could resume in the autumn if the eurozone economy weakens.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Saturday at Jackson Hole that the tightening policies adopted in 2022 and 2023 had not led to recession or sharp increases in unemployment, as had historically been the case.

Money market pricing of a 25-basis-point ECB rate cut in September is currently steady below 30%.

To reprice these expectations, investors later this week await key inflation data from Germany and Spain for August, ahead of full eurozone inflation data early next week.

The Australian dollar rose in the Asian market on Wednesday against a basket of global currencies, extending gains for a second consecutive session against its US counterpart and nearing its highest level in several weeks, after strong inflation data for July in Australia.

The data showed renewed inflationary pressures on policymakers at the Reserve Bank of Australia, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate cut in September.

Price Overview

The Australian dollar rose about 0.2% against the US dollar to 0.6505, from the opening level of 0.6494, recording a low of 0.6487.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar gained about 0.2% against the US dollar, its second daily rise in the past three sessions, amid the Lisa Cook dismissal crisis and renewed concerns over Federal Reserve stability.

Inflation in Australia

Data released Wednesday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that the overall consumer price index rose 2.8% year-on-year in July, the fastest pace since July 2024, above market expectations of a 2.3% rise, and higher than the 1.9% increase in June.

Australian inflation jumps to a one-year high

The data showed inflation accelerating once again, moving outside the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3% medium-term target range, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate cut in September.

Views and Analysis

Russel Chesler, head of investments and capital markets at VanEck, said: “We do not expect today’s surprise inflation rise to have a material impact on markets and the overall economy.”

Chesler added: “This unexpected increase in inflation, combined with the recent rate cut and continued labor market strength, supports our view that another rate cut is unlikely before November.”

Australian Interest Rates

Following the above inflation data, pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in September fell from 30% to 22%.

To reprice these expectations, investors are awaiting further data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Australia before the September 30 meeting.

Australia’s consumer price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in July, the fastest pace since July 2024, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday morning. The increase was higher than market expectations of a 2.3% rise and above the previous reading of 1.9%.

The data highlight mounting inflationary pressures on policymakers at the Reserve Bank of Australia, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate cut in September.

• This release is “positive” for the Australian dollar.