Gold prices declined in the European market on Thursday for the first time in five sessions, pulling back from record highs due to profit-taking activity and pressure from a stronger US dollar in the foreign exchange market.

The Federal Reserve minutes reinforced expectations of two interest rate cuts before the end of this year, as markets await further evidence regarding the continuation of monetary policy easing in the United States.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold fell by 1.0% to 4,001.44 dollars, down from the opening level of 4,041.06 dollars, after recording an intraday high of 4,043.80 dollars.

• On Wednesday, gold settled 1.4% higher, marking its fourth consecutive daily gain and a new record high at 4,059.34 dollars per ounce, supported by strong safe-haven demand.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index rose on Thursday by 0.25%, extending its gains for a fifth consecutive session to reach a two-month high at 99.10 points, reflecting continued strength against major and minor currencies.

As is well known, the appreciation of the US dollar makes gold bars priced in dollars less attractive to holders of other currencies.

This rise came as investors continued to buy the dollar as the best alternative investment in the foreign exchange market, amid escalating political risks in Europe and Japan, as well as concerns surrounding the ongoing US government shutdown.

US Interest Rates

• The minutes of the September 16–17 meeting released on Wednesday showed that Federal Reserve officials agreed that risks in the US labor market had increased enough to justify a rate cut, though they remained cautious amid persistent inflation and debate over the extent to which borrowing costs are affecting the economy.

• According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets currently price a 95% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in the October meeting, and a 5% probability of no change.

• To reassess these probabilities, investors are closely monitoring the resumption of key US economic data releases, as well as ongoing remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

Gold Outlook

Nikos Tzaboras, senior market analyst at Trado, said that gold’s rally faces resistance after the diplomatic breakthrough in Gaza, which reduced safe-haven inflows, while the continued recovery of the US dollar weakens the precious metal’s momentum, leaving it vulnerable to potential pullbacks.

However, he added that the overall uptrend remains intact, and the path toward new record highs is still wide open.

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose by 1.43 metric tons yesterday, bringing the total to 1,014.58 metric tons.

The euro rose in European trading on Thursday against a basket of global currencies, holding above its six-week low versus the US dollar and heading for its first daily gain in four sessions. The rebound came as traders bought from recent lows and optimism grew over a potential resolution to France’s political crisis, with President Emmanuel Macron reportedly close to naming a new prime minister.

Amid renewed inflationary pressures facing European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers, expectations for further interest-rate cuts this year have weakened. Investors are now awaiting additional economic data and comments from ECB officials to reassess those odds.

Price Overview

• Euro exchange rate today: The euro rose around 0.2% to $1.1648, from an opening level of $1.1628, after touching a session low of $1.1619.

• On Wednesday, the euro fell 0.25% against the dollar—its third loss in four days—hitting a six-week low of $1.1598 amid continued political uncertainty in France.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index slipped 0.15% on Thursday, retreating from a two-month high of 99.08 points, and heading for its first loss in four sessions, reflecting a pause in the dollar’s recent rally against major and minor peers.

Beyond profit-taking, the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes reinforced expectations for at least two additional rate cuts by the end of this year.

A New French Prime Minister

Outgoing Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said President Macron could nominate a new prime minister within 48 hours — a move seen as a swift attempt to contain the political turmoil following the collapse of France’s short-lived government just hours after it was formed.

These developments come at a delicate time for European markets, as political instability in Paris has raised investor concerns about the outlook for Macron’s economic reforms. The Élysée is now seeking to form a government capable of securing parliamentary confidence and easing domestic tensions.

European Interest Rates

• Data last week showed eurozone inflation rising in September in line with forecasts, underscoring persistent price pressures on ECB policymakers.

• Following that data, money-market pricing for a 25-basis-point ECB rate cut in October has stabilized below 10%.

• Traders have scaled back bets on further monetary easing, suggesting that the ECB’s current rate-cutting cycle may be over for this year.

• According to sources, ECB officials believe no additional rate cuts are needed to achieve the 2% inflation target, despite new projections pointing to lower rates over the next two years.

• The same sources indicated that unless the eurozone faces another major economic shock, borrowing costs are expected to remain at current levels for some time.

Copper prices surged to a 16-month high on the London Metal Exchange (LME) after Canada’s Teck Resources (listed on the TSX and NYSE under tickers: TECK.A, TECK.B, TECK) cut its 2025 copper-production forecast due to persistent challenges at its Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile and Highland Valley Copper mine in Canada.

Prices rose 0.5% to $10,815 per metric ton on the LME. The company now expects output of 170,000–190,000 tons in 2025, down from previous estimates of 210,000–230,000 tons, and also reduced its annual production targets for the following three years.

The Quebrada Blanca (QB) project has long frustrated investors, having exceeded its original budget by $4 billion and fallen several years behind schedule. Current problems include difficulties in tailings storage at a high-altitude Andean site, damage to key equipment, and instability within the open-pit area.

So far this year, copper prices have climbed about 23%, as supply fears outweigh weak demand in major industrial economies. Analysts have revised down global output forecasts following a string of accidents and operational disruptions at mines in Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia, leading many to anticipate a significant supply deficit.

Concerns deepened after Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Papua, Indonesia — the world’s second-largest copper mine — following severe flooding that halted production entirely. The company confirmed over the weekend that all seven missing workers were found dead after five additional bodies were recovered.

Analysts at Jefferies wrote in a research note: “We are living through unprecedented disruptions to global copper supply, many of which are not short-term. The latest setback at the QB project further fuels these concerns.”

Citigroup meanwhile forecast copper prices to continue rising, potentially reaching $12,000 per ton in the first half of next year, supported by production cuts and favorable macroeconomic factors, including a weaker US dollar. Prices are expected to ease gradually in 2026 as output resumes at affected mines.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), three-month copper futures rose 1.15% to $11,343 per ton (approximately $5.156 per pound).

Bitcoin fell to around $120,000 on Wednesday, down 2.22% over the past 24 hours, trading near $121,000 and marking a 3.75% decline from its record high of $126,000 reached earlier this week.

The pullback follows a strong rally that began in late September, coinciding with a surge in inflows to US spot Bitcoin ETFs — which recorded their second-largest week of inflows since launching in January 2024.

According to earlier reports, those funds saw a combined $1.19 billion in inflows on October 6, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which alone attracted $967 million. The following day, October 7, the funds experienced net outflows of $23.81 million.

$140,000 Before the End of October?

Economist Timothy Peterson said that historical models based on the past decade’s data suggest a 50% chance that Bitcoin could exceed $140,000 by the end of October.

His analysis, derived from hundreds of simulations using actual price data since 2015, shows that roughly half of the potential monthly gains have already been realized. However, Peterson also estimated a 43% probability that Bitcoin will close the month below $136,000, underscoring the extreme volatility that continues to define the crypto market.

October has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, delivering average returns of 20.75% since 2013, according to CoinGlass. For the token to reach $140,000, it would need to rise about 14.7% from current levels.

Gold Hits New Record Highs

While Bitcoin’s momentum slowed, traditional safe-haven assets continued to surge. Spot gold climbed above $4,000 per ounce, reaching a record $4,017.16 on the morning of October 8, while US gold futures for December delivery advanced to $4,040 per ounce.

Gold has delivered exceptional performance in 2025, up 53% year-to-date after gaining 27% in 2024, as investors increasingly turn to it as a hedge against inflation and currency weakness — even as Bitcoin matures as a potential digital alternative.

On-Chain Data Shows Declining Selling Pressure

According to CryptoQuant data, the Fund Flow Ratio — which measures exchange-related transactions versus total network activity — dropped to its lowest level since July 2023.

This suggests more Bitcoin is moving into private wallets for long-term holding, DeFi applications, or OTC institutional trades rather than being sent to exchanges for liquidation.

Such patterns often precede medium-term recoveries, as investors begin rotating capital toward the next promising digital assets.