Gold prices fell in the European market on Tuesday for the first time in the last three days, giving up a five-week high recorded earlier in Asian trading, due to active correction and profit-taking operations.

Losses are being curbed by the continued decline in US dollar levels in the foreign exchange market, as investors focus on the results of global trade talks ahead of the deadline set by US President Donald Trump on August 1.

The Price

• Gold prices today: Gold prices fell by 0.4% to ($3,383.36), from the opening level of trading at ($3,396.93), and recorded the highest level at ($3,402.78), the highest since June 16.

• Upon settlement on Monday, gold prices rose by 1.4%, in the second consecutive daily gain, thanks to the decline in US yields and the dollar.

US Dollar

The dollar index fell on Tuesday by 0.1%, continuing its losses for the third consecutive session, nearing the lowest level in two weeks at 97.70 points, reflecting the continued decline in US currency levels against a basket of major and minor currencies.

Investors are anticipating any progress in global trade talks ahead of the August 1 deadline for countries to strike deals with the US or face hefty tariffs.

Trade Developments

European Union diplomats said the bloc is considering broader retaliatory measures against the US as the likelihood of reaching a trade agreement with Washington diminishes.

Donald Trump earlier threatened to impose a 30% tariff on European imports if no agreement is reached before the August 1 deadline.

US Treasury Secretary "Scott Besant" said: imposing tariffs on August 1 “will increase the pressure” on trade partners to finalize deals.

US Interest Rates

• According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool: pricing of the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the July meeting is currently stable at 3%, and pricing of keeping rates unchanged is at 97%.

• Pricing of the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the September meeting is currently stable at 58%, and pricing of keeping rates unchanged is at 42%.

• Focus is on the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting scheduled for next week, which is expected to provide more clues about the US interest rate path this year.

Gold Outlook

• Senior analyst at Reliance Securities “Jigar Trivedi” said: Gold prices dropped slightly amid profit-taking, but remained close to the highest level in five weeks due to ongoing uncertainty ahead of the tariff deadline on August 1.

• Trivedi added: Gold is likely to remain optimistic, with strong resistance seen near $3,420. On the other hand, $3,350 represents a support level.

SPDR Fund

Holdings of gold at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, increased yesterday by about 3.43 metric tons, bringing the total up to 947.06 metric tons, rebounding from the total of 943.63 metric tons which was the lowest since June 16.

The British pound declined at the opening of the European market on Tuesday against a basket of global currencies, giving up a two-week high against the US dollar due to active profit-taking and investor caution ahead of the Bank of England Governor's testimony.

Andrew Bailey is scheduled to testify on the Financial Stability Report before the Treasury Committee in London, and his comments are expected to provide stronger evidence regarding the path of interest rates in the United Kingdom for the remainder of this year.

The Price

• GBP/USD today: The pound fell against the dollar by 0.1% to $1.3474, from the opening level of $1.3488, after recording a high of $1.3494.

• On Monday, the pound rose by 0.6% against the dollar and hit a two-week high of $1.3511, benefiting from the decline in the US currency following less aggressive comments by a key Federal Reserve official.

UK interest rate

• Following UK labor market data released late last week, traders increased their bets on the Bank of England easing interest rates, now expecting at least an additional 50 basis points in cuts this year.

• Market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Bank of England at the August meeting rose from 65% to 85%.

Andrew Bailey

At 10:15 GMT, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is set to testify on the Financial Stability Report before the Treasury Select Committee in London.

Bailey told The Times last week that the direction of interest rates is “definitely down.” In the interview, he gave a strong signal that the Bank would accelerate rate cuts if more signs of “slack” emerge in the economy.

The term “slack” refers to a scenario in which the economy is not operating at full capacity, with higher unemployment and slowing output. This is considered disinflationary and would bolster the Bank's confidence that inflation will fall to 2.0% by 2026, as currently projected.

Pound outlook

At Economies.com, we expect that if Bailey's comments turn out less hawkish than markets anticipate, the likelihood of a rate cut in August will rise, putting further downward pressure on the pound.

The Japanese yen declined in Asian markets on Tuesday, erasing some of the strong gains it posted against the US dollar in the previous session, as investors digested the results of Japan’s upper house elections. Meanwhile, broader Japanese markets showed a muted response after reopening from Monday’s public holiday.

Last week’s inflation data out of Tokyo showed a softening in price pressures, which in turn reduced expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in July.

The Price

USD/JPY Today: The US dollar rose by 0.25% against the yen to ¥147.71, up from the session’s opening level of ¥147.37. The pair reached an intraday low of ¥147.20.

Monday Close: The yen gained nearly 1% against the dollar on Monday—its first daily gain in three sessions—after the ruling party suffered losses in the Japanese elections.

Japan’s Upper House Elections

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured 47 seats—fewer than the 50 needed for a majority in the 248-seat upper house, in elections where half the seats were contested.

The results were not worse than expected, shifting investor attention toward Tokyo’s ability to reach a timely trade agreement with Washington and the political fate of Prime Minister Ishiba.

Markets offered only a modest reaction to the LDP’s loss, with Japanese equities showing limited movement as trading resumed after Monday’s holiday.

Analyst Commentary

Hardman, Chief FX Strategist at MUFG Bank, said: “The initial relief rally in the yen is likely to be short-lived, as the ruling coalition avoided a more severe defeat and Ishiba appears determined to hold on to power.”

He added: “However, increasing political uncertainty could complicate Japan’s efforts to finalize a trade deal with the US, posing downside risks to both the economy and the yen.”

BOJ Rate Outlook

Inflation data released on Friday showed that Japan’s core inflation slowed more than expected in June, suggesting weaker price pressures on the central bank.

As a result, market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the BOJ in July dropped from 45% to 35%.

Investors now await further data on inflation, employment, and wage growth to reassess the likelihood of future policy tightening.

Despite years of US trade restrictions, Chinese telecom giant Huawei has quietly emerged as one of China’s strongest contenders in the field of artificial intelligence.

Based in Shenzhen, the company is not only seen as China’s answer to US AI chip leader Nvidia but was also among the first to monetize AI models through industrial applications.

“Huawei has been forced to shift and broaden its core focus over the past decade due to multiple external pressures,” said Paul Triolo, Partner and Senior VP for China at consultancy DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group.

This expansion has led the company into diverse areas—from smart cars and operating systems to the critical technologies driving the AI revolution, including advanced semiconductors, data centers, chips, and large language models.

“No other tech company has demonstrated this level of competency across so many complex and high-barrier sectors,” Triolo added.

Even Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently acknowledged Huawei’s progress, describing it as “one of the most powerful tech companies in the world,” and warning that Huawei could replace Nvidia in the Chinese market if Washington continues its export restrictions on advanced chips.

Nvidia’s market capitalization surpassed $4 trillion last week, making it the most valuable company globally, thanks to its cutting-edge processors and its CUDA computing platform, the industry standard for training AI models.

But that dominance is now being challenged, as Huawei proves capable of delivering high-quality performance across a broad spectrum.

From Small Distributor to National Hero

Founded in 1987 by ambitious entrepreneur Ren Zhengfei, Huawei started as a small distributor of telephone switches from a Shenzhen apartment.

Over time, it grew into a major player in the telecom space, expanding first into emerging markets such as Africa, the Middle East, Russia, and Latin America before breaking into Europe.

By 2019, Huawei was well-positioned to benefit from the global launch of 5G networks and had become one of the top smartphone manufacturers. It also began designing its own chips through its HiSilicon unit.

But its success attracted scrutiny—particularly from the United States, which repeatedly accused Huawei of threatening national security, allegations the company has consistently denied.

In 2019, the US dealt Huawei a heavy blow by placing it on a trade blacklist, barring American firms from doing business with it.

This slashed revenue from its consumer unit—then its largest—to about $34 billion in 2021, half of the previous year’s total.

Still, the company pressed on with AI chip development, even after further sanctions in 2020 severed its ties with Taiwan’s TSMC.

In 2019, Huawei launched its Ascend 910 AI processor as part of a strategy to build a comprehensive, end-to-end AI ecosystem.

While the sanctions were intended to cripple Huawei, they instead helped turn it into a national symbol, especially after the 2018 arrest of CFO and founder’s daughter Meng Wanzhou in Canada over alleged sanctions violations related to Iran.

“The US restrictions pushed Huawei into the arms of the Chinese government in a way Ren Zhengfei had long tried to avoid,” said Triolo, “but they ultimately accelerated the company’s AI progress.”

The Comeback

In 2023, Huawei’s consumer business saw a strong rebound, thanks to the launch of a smartphone featuring what analysts say is an advanced, China-made chip.

That surprise chip was indirectly linked to Chinese firm SMIC, which is also under US sanctions.

Though semiconductor analysts believe the chip’s production capacity is limited, Huawei proved it was back in the game.

Reports soon emerged about a new AI chip, the Ascend 910B, and the company is now preparing for mass production of the next-gen 910C.

“Huawei has made significant progress in emulating high-performance GPU capabilities using clusters of less advanced chips,” said Jeffrey Towson, Managing Partner at TechMoat Consulting.

In April, Huawei unveiled its CloudMatrix 384 system, which connects 384 Ascend 910C chips in a single data center cluster.

Analysts noted that the system outperforms Nvidia’s GB200 NVL72 in some benchmarks.

“Huawei isn’t just catching up—it’s redefining how AI infrastructure should work,” said a recent Forrester report.

The company also developed its own software stack to replace CUDA, called CANN, boosting its in-house software capabilities.

“The AI race isn’t just about faster chips—it’s also about development tools, and Huawei is building a full-stack solution,” the report added.

But Huawei’s ambitions go beyond just challenging Nvidia. Chips are only one building block in its broader AI strategy.

Today, Huawei’s operations span the full AI value chain—from chips and computing power to models and applications.

In 2023, its ICT infrastructure unit—which includes 5.5G networks and industrial AI systems—became its largest revenue source, generating 362 billion yuan.

Through its cloud arm, Huawei Cloud (founded in 2017 to compete with AWS and Oracle), the company runs data centers powered by Ascend chips and CloudMatrix systems.

It uses these to train its Pangu series of AI models, which are tailored for sectors like healthcare, finance, government, industry, and automotive. These models have been deployed in over 20 industries in the past year.

“Often, our engineers stay on-site for months—even in remote mines—to implement AI solutions,” said Jack Chen, VP of marketing for Huawei’s oil, gas, and mining unit.

In May, the company deployed over 100 autonomous electric trucks powered by 5G, AI, and Huawei’s cloud infrastructure to transport coal and soil.

Chen added that this technology “can be widely replicated across Central Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific region.”

Huawei has also open-sourced its Pangu models in a move to expand its global reach and bolster what it calls its “Ascend ecosystem”—a complete suite of intelligent products built on Ascend chips.

Patrick Moorhead, CEO of Moor Insights & Strategy, told CNBC: “I expect Huawei to push Ascend chips into Belt and Road countries.”

He concluded that within 5 to 10 years, the company could build a significant market share in those nations—just as it did before in telecom.