Gold prices rose in European trading on Monday, extending their recovery for the second consecutive day from four-month lows, supported by notable investment demand and bargain buying, alongside the current slowdown in the US dollar against a basket of global currencies.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak later today at an event hosted by Harvard University, with his remarks expected to provide new clues about the path of US interest rates this year.

Price Overview

Gold prices today: gold rose about 1.3% to $4,550.71, up from the session opening level of $4,492.56, after hitting a low of $4,417.74.

At Friday’s settlement, gold gained 2.65%, marking its third gain in the past four days, supported by a rebound from a four-month low of $4,098.23 per ounce.

As a result of this recovery, gold prices ended last week little changed, following a three-week streak of weekly losses.

US dollar

The dollar index fell about 0.2% on Monday, retreating from a two-week high of 100.34 points, reflecting a slowdown in the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

Beyond profit-taking, the US dollar is weakening as investors assess developments in the Iran war and the strong likelihood of a new round of negotiations between the United States and Iran in Pakistan aimed at ending the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

US interest rates

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing a 96% probability that US interest rates will remain unchanged at the April meeting, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike stands at 4%.

To reassess these expectations, investors are closely monitoring further economic data releases from the United States, in addition to tracking comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Jerome Powell

At 15:30 GMT, an event hosted by Harvard University in Massachusetts will begin, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell participating, where questions from the audience are expected.

Gold outlook

Daniel Pavilonis, Senior Market Strategist at RJO Futures, said the recent decline in prices has created an excellent investment opportunity, as prices fell below the 200-day moving average, making it an ideal time to buy gold.

Pavilonis added that a gradual rise is expected over the next two weeks, and if the situation surrounding Iran stabilizes, there will be a strong opportunity for investment.

SPDR fund

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, were little changed on Friday, keeping the total at 1,052.71 metric tons.

The euro rose in European trading on Monday against a basket of global currencies, as it attempts to recover after four consecutive days of losses against the US dollar, benefiting from a slowdown in the US currency, as investors assess developments in the Iran war and the likelihood of a new round of negotiations between the United States and Iran in Pakistan.

Following more hawkish comments from the President of the European Central Bank last week, expectations for at least one interest rate hike this year have increased. To reassess those expectations, markets are awaiting the release of key inflation data from Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, later today.

Price Overview

Euro exchange rate today: the euro rose about 0.2% against the dollar to $1.1521, up from the session opening level of $1.1500, after hitting a low of $1.1487.

The euro ended Friday’s session down 0.15% against the dollar, marking its fourth consecutive daily loss, amid continued escalation of military confrontations in the Middle East.

The euro declined 0.55% against the dollar last week, recording its third weekly loss over the past month, due to concerns over the repercussions of the Iran war and its negative impact on the European economy.

US dollar

The dollar index fell 0.2% on Monday, retreating from a two-week high of 100.34 points, reflecting a slowdown in the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

Beyond profit-taking, the US dollar is weakening as investors assess developments in the Iran war and the strong likelihood of a new round of negotiations between the United States and Iran in Pakistan aimed at ending the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak later today, with his remarks expected to provide new clues about the path of US interest rates over the course of this year, especially after the recent rise in oil prices amid the impact of the Iran war.

European interest rates

ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that the bank is ready to raise interest rates even if the expected rise in inflation is temporary.

Following those comments, money markets increased pricing for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the European Central Bank at the April meeting from 25% to 35%.

Sources told Reuters that the European Central Bank is likely to begin discussing interest rate hikes next month.

To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting the release of Germany’s March inflation data later today.

Euro outlook

We at Economies.com expect that if Germany’s inflation data comes in more hawkish than market expectations, the likelihood of European interest rate hikes this year will increase, leading to further recovery in the euro’s exchange rate against a basket of global currencies.

The Japanese yen rose in Asian trading on Monday at the start of the week against a basket of major and minor currencies, as it attempts to recover from a 20-month low against the US dollar, supported by notable buying activity from lower levels.

The yen climbed back above the key 160 yen threshold, amid close monitoring by Japanese authorities, as the top currency official issued a strong warning over excessive movements, affirming the government’s readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the domestic currency.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned about the implications of a weaker domestic currency and its negative impact on the economy and price levels, noting that continued yen depreciation could increase inflationary pressures, while signaling the possibility of raising interest rates in the coming period if conditions warrant.

Price Overview

Japanese yen exchange rate today: the US dollar fell 0.35% against the yen to ¥159.66, down from the session opening level of ¥160.25, after reaching a high of ¥160.46, the highest level since July 2024.

The yen ended Friday’s session down 0.3% against the dollar, marking its fourth consecutive daily loss, due to fading hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East.

The yen declined 0.65% against the dollar last week, recording its fifth weekly loss in the past six weeks, as investors focused on buying the US currency as a preferred safe-haven asset following the outbreak of the Iran war.

Japanese authorities

In the strongest warning yet of intervention to support the yen, Japan’s top currency official Atsuki Mimura said on Monday that authorities may need to take decisive steps if speculation in the currency market continues.

Mimura told reporters that speculation is increasing in the currency market, in addition to the crude oil futures market, and if this situation persists, it may be time to take decisive action.

160 yen threshold

The US dollar rose against the yen on Friday, reaching ¥160 for the first time since July 2024, when Japanese authorities last intervened to support the currency.

Authorities in Tokyo have repeatedly warned of the possibility of intervention to support the yen if its value declines excessively. Their last intervention was in July 2024, when the exchange rate reached around ¥161 per dollar, the lowest level since the 1980s.

Kazuo Ueda

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said before parliament on Monday that currency market movements are clearly among the factors that significantly affect economic developments and price levels.

Ueda added that the Bank will conduct monetary policy appropriately by closely examining how currency movements affect the likelihood of achieving its growth and price outlook, as well as associated risks.

He also said that the Bank of Japan should raise short-term interest rates at an appropriate pace to avoid excessive increases in bond yields, indicating his intention to continue raising interest rates steadily.

Japanese interest rates

Following the above comments, markets increased pricing for the probability of a quarter-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the April meeting from 15% to 25%.

To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting further data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan.

Ethereum is facing increased volatility amid broader market uncertainty, pushing its price toward the $2,000 level.

This decline follows a pullback from weekly highs near $2,250, coinciding with one of the largest options expiry events in the market.

Ethereum options expiry data – March 27

The cryptocurrency market is witnessing one of the largest options expiry waves today, March 27, 2026, with significant exposure to major assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Around 68,000 Bitcoin options contracts expired, with a Put/Call ratio of 0.56, indicating a moderately bullish bias, and a max pain level near $74,000, while the price was trading around $68,500 on Friday morning.

In comparison, Ethereum options are recording the largest quarterly expiry on Deribit, with open interest estimated at around $2.12 billion across 1.03 million contracts.

Approximately 370,000 Ethereum contracts expired, with a similar Put/Call ratio of 0.56, reflecting relatively balanced positioning among traders, with no clear dominance of bearish bets.

According to analysts at Greeks.live, Ethereum’s max pain level is centered around $2,250, a level that aligns with recent resistance zones.

Historically, such large options expiries tend to trigger short-term price movements as positions are unwound, and this event is likely to increase Ethereum’s volatility.

ICO whale selling adds downward pressure

Downward pressure on Ethereum increased on March 27 as an early “whale” sold a large amount of the cryptocurrency.

Data from Lookonchain showed that an investor from the initial coin offering (ICO) participants sold 11,552 ETH worth $23.42 million at an average price of $2,027.

This investor had originally purchased around 38,800 ETH for just $12,000 in 2014, at a price of $0.31 per coin, and the remaining holdings are still valued at approximately $79.54 million despite the recent sale.

Such movements typically reflect profit-taking or risk management, but they often negatively affect market sentiment, especially when they come from early large investors.

At the same time, data suggests that some investors are using the declines to accumulate, while institutions continue to assess staking opportunities in a relatively subdued market.

Price analysis: continued pressure and downside risks

Ethereum’s price action reflects short-term fragility, with liquidations totaling $110.4 million over the past 24 hours, highlighting the current market pressure.

Despite this, open interest remains elevated, indicating that traders continue to position for a potential upside move.

On the daily chart, the price is trading near $2,060 with a neutral bias leaning slightly bearish.

The price remains below the 20-day exponential moving average near $2,110, as well as below the 50-day and 100-day averages at approximately $2,185 and $2,440 respectively, giving bears relative control in the short term.

Analysts at Greeks.live noted that “the settlement of quarterly contracts on Friday, with more than 40% of options expiring, makes it difficult for Bitcoin to break resistance levels such as $75,000 over the next three days,” which could also weigh on Ethereum’s performance.

If the price fails to regain higher levels, it may test support at $2,000, with the next major support located near $1,800.