Gold prices rose in European trading on Thursday, extending gains for the fifth consecutive session and reaching a three-week high, supported by the current decline in the US dollar, which remains under pressure from expectations of a potential interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.

President Donald Trump signed a bill to reopen the government, a move that will revive the flow of official economic data and provide clearer evidence regarding the Fed’s policy path.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Spot gold rose by 1.1 percent to 4,239.42 dollars, the highest level since 21 October, from an opening price of 4,195.49 dollars, after touching an intraday low of 4,180.12 dollars.

• At Tuesday’s settlement, gold gained 1.65 percent, marking a fourth consecutive daily increase, supported by strong safe-haven demand.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index fell by 0.4 percent, hitting a two-week low at 99.20 points, reflecting broad weakness in the US currency against a basket of major counterparts.

This decline followed President Donald Trump’s signature on legislation ending the longest government shutdown in US history, bringing an end to political gridlock in Washington.

The development has eased concerns about slowing economic activity and opened the door for the return of regular government data releases, restoring confidence in the markets.

US Interest Rates

• Federal Reserve governor Steven Miran said on Monday that a 50-basis-point rate cut would be appropriate for December, noting that inflation is easing while unemployment is rising.

• According to CME’s FedWatch tool, market pricing currently assigns a 67 percent probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, while the probability of no change remains at 33 percent.

• To reassess these probabilities, investors are closely monitoring remarks from Federal Reserve officials and anticipating the resumption of government economic data as soon as possible.

Outlook for Gold

Analysts at ANZ said in a note that the likelihood of softer economic data following the US government shutdown has helped push gold higher, adding that this will likely support continued central-bank demand.

They added that supportive policy measures, economic uncertainty, and limited investment alternatives will sustain gold demand from retail investors and strategic allocations.

SPDR Fund

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, rose by 0.28 metric tons on Wednesday, marking a second consecutive daily increase and lifting total holdings to 1,046.64 metric tons, the highest level since 24 October.

The British pound fell in the European market on Thursday against a basket of major currencies, extending its losses for the third consecutive session against the US dollar, as the American currency strengthened following President Trump’s signing of a bill to end the longest government shutdown in US history.

After the release of downbeat labor-market data in the United Kingdom, the probability of a Bank of England rate cut in December increased. To reassess those expectations, investors are now awaiting key figures on UK economic growth due later today.

Price Overview

• GBP/USD exchange rate: The pound fell by about 0.2 percent to 1.3111 dollars, down from an opening price of 1.3133 dollars, after recording an intraday high at 1.3134 dollars.

• On Wednesday, the pound lost roughly 0.15 percent against the dollar, marking a second straight day of declines amid ongoing correction and profit-taking from the two-week high of 1.3191 dollars.

US Dollar

The US dollar index rose by 0.1 percent on Thursday, maintaining gains for a second session and reflecting continued strength in the American currency against major and minor peers.

The rise came after President Donald Trump signed legislation ending the longest government shutdown in US history, effectively breaking the political deadlock in Washington.

This development eases concerns about a potential economic slowdown in the United States and paves the way for the resumption of regular government data releases, restoring confidence to financial markets.

UK Interest Rates

• Data released this week in the United Kingdom showed a rise in monthly jobless claims, while the unemployment rate hit its worst level since April 2021, developments that ease inflationary pressure on Bank of England policymakers.

• Following these figures, market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December increased from 60 percent to 80 percent.

UK Economic Growth

To reassess those expectations, investors are awaiting important data from London later today, including the quarterly GDP reading for the third quarter, the monthly GDP reading for September, and additional figures on UK manufacturing output.

Outlook for the British Pound

At Economies.com, we expect that if the upcoming data proves less hawkish than markets anticipate, the probability of a December rate cut will rise further, a development that would place additional downward pressure on the pound.

The Australian dollar strengthened in the European market on Thursday against a basket of major currencies, extending gains for the second consecutive session against the US dollar and hitting a two-week high after the release of strong Australian labor market data.

The figures showed persistently tight labor conditions, adding pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and reducing expectations for a rate cut in December.

Price Overview

• **AUD/USD exchange rate:** The Australian dollar rose about 0.4% to **0.6565**, its highest level since October 24, from an opening price of **0.6541**, after touching an intraday low of **0.6533**.

• On Wednesday, the Australian dollar gained more than 0.2% against its US counterpart, marking its third daily rise in the past four sessions amid improved risk appetite in global markets.

Australian Labor Market

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed that **net employment jumped by 42.2 thousand in October**, the fastest pace since April, easily beating market expectations for a gain of 20 thousand. September’s employment figure was revised down from 14.9 thousand to 12.8 thousand.

The report also showed that the **unemployment rate fell to 4.3%**, below market expectations of 4.4%, after recording 4.5% in September.

These results confirm that Australia’s labor market remains tight, reinforcing the case for the RBA to maintain its restrictive monetary policy stance well into 2026.

Australian Interest Rates

• Following the data release, market pricing for a **25-basis-point rate cut in December** fell from **35% to 15%**.

• Investors now await further data on inflation, employment, and wage growth to reassess the outlook for monetary policy in Australia.

The US dollar rose against most major currencies during Wednesday’s trading but trimmed some of its gains as markets awaited the outcome of a key vote in the House of Representatives to restore government operations.

Investors are watching closely as the House prepares to vote on legislation to end the federal shutdown that has been in place since early October, after the Senate approved the measure earlier this week.

Data from ADP released on Tuesday showed that the US private sector lost an average of 11,250 jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 25.

Separately, Federal Reserve member Steven Miran reiterated on Monday his support for additional interest rate cuts to prevent a potential economic slowdown.

In an interview with CNBC, Miran emphasized that the Fed should move faster than the usual pace of 25-basis-point adjustments. He once again called for a 50-basis-point cut—half a percentage point—while noting that at minimum, a quarter-point reduction should be implemented.

As of 19:54 GMT, the US dollar index was up less than 0.1% at 99.4 points, after reaching a high of 99.7 and a low of 99.4.

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar rose 0.3% against its US counterpart to 0.6544 as of 20:05 GMT.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian dollar also strengthened, rising 0.2% against the US dollar to 0.7143 at the same time.