Gold prices were little changed on Tuesday after marking strong quarterly gains in the first quarter with investors awaiting Trump’s new tariffs. 

Markets are on edge before US President Donald Trump’s new reciprocal tariffs. Details are limited, but Trump said almost all countries will face tariffs.

Trump said he’s open to negotiate deals with countries that seek to avoid tariffs, but the Washington Post reported in the weekend that he’s aiming for a stricter approach.

Otherwise, US ISM manufacturing PMI tumbled to 49 in March from 50.3 in February, while analysts expected 49.5. 

US Job openings fell to 7.57 million jobs in February from January’s 7.76 million. 

The dollar index rose 0.1% as of 19:46 GMT to 104.2, with a session-high at 104.3, and a low at 104.02.

Gold spot prices were little changed at $3150.4 as of 19:47 GMT.

Gold marked its best quarterly performance since 1986, surpassing $3150 for the first time ever amid surging haven demand due to geopolitical and economic concerns.

Gold prices rose on Tuesday in European trade on track for the fourth daily profit in a row, hitting a fresh record high and about to trade above $3150 for the first time in history amid strong haven demand with mounting global trade tensions. 

It comes before a new round of reciprocal tariffs, which the White House will announce tomorrow, and will likely feed into inflation and hurt global growth.

Prices

Gold prices rose 0.8% today to $3149 an ounce, a record high, with a session-low at $3120.

On Monday, gold rose 1.4%, the fourth profit in a row, amid mounting trade fears.

Gold rose 9.45% in March, the third monthly profit in a row, and the largest since July 2020.

Trump’s Tariffs

Markets are on edge before US President Donald Trump’s new reciprocal tariffs. Details are limited, but Trump said almost all countries will face tariffs.

Trump said he’s open to negotiate deals with countries that seek to avoid tariffs, but the Washington Post reported in the weekend that he’s aiming for a stricter approach.

US Rates

New York Fed President John Williams said that maintaining interest rates at current levels “for some time” would allow Fed officials to study incoming data and decide on the next steps.

According to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a 0.25% Fed interest rate cut in May stood at 15%.

The odds of such a cut in June stood at a much stronger 75%, with investors now waiting for important US data this week to gather more clues, chief of which the payrolls report on Friday. 

SPDR

Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust rose 1.44 tons on Monday to a total of 933.38 tons, the highest since June 2023.

Official eurozone data showed consumer prices rose 2.2% y/y in March, matching expectations and down from 2.3% in the previous reading.

Core prices, excluding food and energy rose 2.4%, below estimates of 2.5%, and down from 2.6% in the previous reading. 

The Australian dollar rose on Tuesday against a basket of major rivals, in an attempt to rebound from four-week lows against the dollar, and on track for the first profit in three days on short-covering after the RBA’s policy decision.

The Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates unchanged as expected while warning from the impact of US tariffs on the global economy.

RBA Governor Michelle Bullock’s remarks were more bullish than expected, hurting the odds of an RBA rate cut in May.

The Price

The AUD/USD pair rose 0.35% today to $0.6268, with a session-low at $0.6232.

Aussie lost 0.7% on Monday against the US dollar, the second loss in a row, plumbing four-week lows at 62.19 cents due to global trade tensions.

RBA

The Reserve Bank of Australia voted to hold interest rates unchanged at 4.10%, the lowest since October 2023, as expected.

At the February policy meeting, the RBA cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.10%, the first such cut since March 2020.

The RBA believes that current monetary policies are prepared to respond to international developments in case they have a deep impact on Australia’s economic performance and inflation, with a particular eye on Trump’s global tariffs.

Bullock

RBA Governor Michelle Bullock said the central bank hasn’t yet achieved full confidence in inflation, but it’s holding hopes for gradual dips in consumer prices.

She said the RBA doesn’t support current market forecasts for future interest rate decisions.

She clearly hinted that a rate cut in May isn’t likely, dashing market hopes.

Australian Rates

The odds of an RBA 0.25% rate cut in May tumbled sharply from 80% to 50%, with traders now waiting for more inflation, unemployment, and wages data to gather more clues before the May meeting.