Gold prices fell on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve kept its overnight interest rate unchanged, in line with expectations.

Spot gold traded down 2.2% at $4,895.61 per ounce, while gold futures declined 2.4% to $4,889.80 per ounce.

Despite holding policy steady, the Fed projected one rate cut in 2026, also pointing to uncertainty stemming from the war between the United States and Iran.

In its statement, the central bank said: “The implications of developments in the Middle East for the US economy remain uncertain.”

Semiconductor production could be negatively affected by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East due to supply chain disruptions, particularly in helium supplies, which are a key component in chip manufacturing.

Some unexpected industries are coming under severe pressure as a result of the war with Iran, with multiple supply chains facing sharp disruptions that extend beyond oil and gas. This could lead to significant delays in semiconductor production unless major powers reach agreements to halt the conflict and reopen vital trade routes.

Helium is a critical component in semiconductor manufacturing, as it is used in chip production processes and helps maintain optimal conditions during fabrication. In photolithography, helium is used to create a stable vacuum environment and ensure precise alignment and exposure of photomasks. It also contributes to cooling semiconductor materials, reducing thermal stress that could negatively affect chip performance.

Unlike other industrial gases, there is no effective substitute for helium in chip production. As a noble gas, helium is chemically inert, reducing contamination risks during manufacturing. Its low thermal conductivity supports precise temperature control, while its light weight and small atomic size allow it to be used in ultra-clean environments.

The use of helium enables manufacturers to achieve higher levels of precision and control in electronic circuit design.

Helium is a byproduct of liquefied natural gas production, meaning LNG suppliers are often also major helium exporters. Some semiconductor manufacturers rely heavily on specific markets for helium supply, putting them in a difficult position when disruptions occur and forcing them to seek alternative sources.

In South Korea, one of the world’s leading semiconductor producers, several companies rely heavily on Middle Eastern countries for helium imports. For example, in 2025, the company “Jokan” imported about 64% of its helium needs from Qatar.

South Korea and Taiwan together account for around 36% of global semiconductor production.

The dependency is not limited to one country, as QatarEnergy’s massive Ras Laffan facility supplies nearly one-third of global helium. However, the facility was shut down for more than a week after Iranian drone strikes forced a suspension of operations.

The shutdown immediately cut global helium supplies by 30%.

Qatar and several other Middle Eastern countries rely heavily on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade route connecting the Arabian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, for transporting goods. The strait represents a strategic chokepoint due to the limited alternatives for energy transport, aside from some restricted pipeline networks in the region.

The near-total closure of the strait has not only caused the largest disruption in oil supplies in history, but also significantly disrupted supply chains between Europe and Asia.

The United States is the world’s largest producer of helium, meaning countries unable to source the gas from the Middle East may turn to the US as an alternative. However, Washington is unlikely to meet the sudden surge in demand quickly enough.

Russia is also a major helium producer, but broad sanctions imposed after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine have made investors hesitant to enter the Russian market or import its goods.

At present, South Korean companies such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC fear that these disruptions could reduce their production until alternative helium sources are secured.

Meanwhile, global demand for semiconductors continues to rise year after year, driven by the rapid expansion of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence. Some companies fear they may be unable to meet orders on time, potentially forcing them to produce lower-margin chips to fulfill commitments.

However, SK Hynix recently announced that it has diversified its helium supply sources and secured sufficient inventory in the short term.

It remains unclear how long the war with Iran, or the broader Middle East conflict, will last, particularly as US President Donald Trump stated that the United States intends to continue its operations in Iran until “complete victory” is achieved.

If the war continues for several months, helium supply disruptions are likely to persist, which could push semiconductor prices higher over the medium term.

The helium supply crisis from Qatar highlights the fragility of semiconductor supply chains, as major chip-producing countries rely heavily on Doha in this area.

The conflict in the Middle East may push producers to seek alternative helium sources, both in the short and long term, and could also encourage companies to strengthen regional supply chains to reduce exposure to future geopolitical disruptions.

The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday its decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, in a move that largely aligned with market expectations.

Oil prices turned higher, as the impact of supply disruptions — ranging from production outages in Gulf countries to new attacks on energy infrastructure in the region — outweighed pressure from Iraq resuming exports through the pipeline to Turkey’s Ceyhan port.

With no signs of de-escalation in the conflict with Iran, benchmark Brent crude held above $100 per barrel over the past four sessions.

Brent futures rose by $0.61, or 0.6%, to $104.02 per barrel by 11:55 GMT, after earlier falling to $100.34 during the session.

In contrast, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by $1.28, or 1.3%, to $94.93 per barrel.

Diverging price trends

Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank, said the divergence in price trends increasingly reflects WTI’s focus on the US market, while Brent more closely tracks global supply disruptions.

Resumption of Iraqi exports

In Iraq, sources at North Oil Company reported that exports via the pipeline have resumed following an agreement between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government to restart oil flows.

Two oil officials said last week that Iraq aims to pump at least 100,000 barrels per day through the port.

However, analysts at MUFG noted that the easing of supply pressure remains limited, as Iraq’s production is still at about one-third of its pre-crisis levels, while tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly constrained.

Oil output from Iraq’s main southern fields has fallen by about 70% to 1.3 million barrels per day after the conflict with Iran disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil flows.

Escalating tensions and attacks

Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that some oil industry facilities in South Pars and Asaluyeh were targeted by attacks, with the extent of damage still unclear.

The US military also announced strikes on sites along Iran’s coast near the Strait of Hormuz, citing threats from anti-ship missiles to international shipping.

Iran confirmed the killing of National Security Council chief Ali Larijani in an Israeli attack, which, alongside US strikes, has raised some hopes for a quicker end to the conflict.

Additional supply developments

In Libya, the National Oil Corporation announced the gradual rerouting of flows from the Sharara field through alternative pipelines following a fire.

In the United States, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed crude inventories rose by 6.56 million barrels in the week ending March 13, far exceeding expectations of an increase of about 380,000 barrels.