Gold prices fell in the European market on Thursday for the first time in the last three days, pressured by a rebound in US dollar levels in the foreign exchange market, ahead of key US economic data releases.

These crucial data, along with comments from Federal Reserve officials, will provide new clues about the likelihood of US interest rate cuts in September and October.

Price Overview

•Gold prices today: The price of gold declined by 0.4% to $3,341.75, from the opening level of $3,355.76, recording a high of $3,374.88.

•At Wednesday’s close, gold prices rose by 0.25%, marking a second consecutive daily gain, supported by a decline in the US currency.

US Dollar

The US dollar index rose on Thursday by 0.2%, rebounding from a two-week low of 97.62 points, heading for its first gain in the last three sessions, reflecting the recovery of the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

US Interest Rates

•According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool: The probability of a 25-basis point US interest rate cut in September is currently priced at around 99%, with a 1% probability of no change.

•The probability of a 25-basis point US interest rate cut in October is also currently priced at 99%, with a 1% probability of no change.

Key Data Ahead

To reassess these probabilities, investors are awaiting the release later today of important US economic data, including July producer prices and weekly jobless claims.

Gold Outlook

•Kyle Rodda, market analyst at Capital.com, said: “Markets are factoring in the possibility of a 50-basis point Fed interest rate cut in September. Therefore, with a weaker dollar and rising gold prices as a result, yields have also fallen.”

•Rodda added: “The technical outlook for gold looks very positive. The trend still appears bullish. We just need to see the market sustainably break above $3,400.”

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, were unchanged yesterday for the second consecutive day, with the total standing at 964.22 metric tons, the highest level since September 12, 2022.

Bitcoin prices rose during Thursday’s trading, extending gains for the third consecutive day and hitting a new record high by trading above $124,000 for the first time in history.

This historic rally comes amid strong optimism sweeping global markets, particularly with growing bets on monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve, alongside robust regulatory reforms in the United States — the world’s largest crypto asset market.

Major global companies launched another round of Bitcoin purchases, raising their holdings of the leading cryptocurrency to new record levels, as strong inflows continued into US-listed Bitcoin ETFs.

Price Overview

•On the Bitstamp exchange, Bitcoin rose by $1,157, or 0.95%, to $124,517 — the highest level ever — from an opening price of $123,360, with a low at $123,307.

•At Wednesday’s Bitstamp close, Bitcoin had gained 2.75%, marking a second consecutive daily rise amid record demand for the leading cryptocurrency.

Digital Asset Market Cap

The market capitalization of digital currencies rose on Thursday by more than $35 billion to a total of $4.273 trillion — a new all-time high — amid record Bitcoin prices and Ethereum’s climb to its highest since 2021.

Federal Reserve

Expectations for a 50 basis point Fed rate cut before year-end have now been fully priced in, after weak US labor market data and moderate inflation figures released this week.

Several Fed officials and policymakers expressed the need for near-term rate cuts in response to the US economic slowdown.

President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly criticized Jerome Powell for not cutting rates earlier, increased pressure on the Federal Reserve.

White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt stated that the president is considering suing Powell over his handling of renovations at the central bank’s Washington headquarters.

Regulatory Reforms

Since the start of 2025, Bitcoin prices have surged more than 30%, driven by major regulatory wins for the US digital asset sector, particularly after Trump’s return to the White House. He has dubbed himself the “Crypto President,” and his family has significantly expanded investments in the sector.

One major recent decision was an executive order allowing digital assets to be included in 401(k) retirement plans, signaling a more flexible and supportive regulatory environment in the US.

The year 2025 also saw new stablecoin regulations and adjustments to SEC policies to accommodate this asset class, boosting market momentum.

MicroStrategy

On Monday, via X, MicroStrategy co-founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor announced a new Bitcoin purchase of 155 BTC, raising the company’s holdings to a fresh record high.

The purchase, conducted between July 30 and August 10, cost $18 million, at an average of $116,401 per BTC.

Following this acquisition, the company now holds 628,946 BTC at an average price of $73,284 per coin, worth about $46.1 billion.

Metaplanet

Japan’s Metaplanet continued increasing its Bitcoin holdings, acquiring an additional 518 BTC between August 5 and 11 for $61.4 million, at an average of $118,519 per BTC.

After this latest purchase, the company’s holdings reached a record 18,113 BTC worth $1.85 billion, at an average price of $101,909 per BTC.

This move aligns with a similar strategy by US-based MicroStrategy, reflecting growing institutional confidence in digital asset investments.

Strong ETF Inflows

Bitcoin ETFs added about $87 million on Wednesday, marking the sixth straight day of inflows into these US-listed products, with total inflows of around $1.108 billion.

Bitcoin Outlook

•IG’s Tony Sycamore said Bitcoin’s rally is driven by rising confidence in Fed rate cuts, ongoing institutional demand, and Trump’s supportive investment policies for digital assets.

•Sycamore added that a sustained break above $125,000 could send Bitcoin prices toward $150,000.

The British pound rose on Thursday against a basket of major currencies, extending gains for the third consecutive day against the US dollar and recording its highest level in five weeks, amid weak expectations for the Bank of England to continue easing monetary policy and cutting interest rates.

To reprice those expectations, investors later today await key UK economic data on growth during the second quarter of this year and during June.

Price Overview

•The pound rose against the dollar by 0.1% to $1.3592 — its highest since July 10 — from the opening price of $1.3578, with a low of $1.3570.

•On Wednesday, the pound gained about 0.6% against the dollar, marking a second consecutive daily rise, as the US currency continued to face selling pressure in the forex market.

UK Interest Rates

•Following last week’s hawkish Bank of England meeting, traders reduced bets on further BOE rate cuts, now pricing in an additional 17 basis points of cuts this year.

•The probability of a 25 basis point BOE rate cut in September is currently steady at around 30%.

UK Economic Growth

To reprice the above expectations, investors later today are awaiting crucial UK data on economic growth in the second quarter and monthly growth for June.

Forecasts point to UK GDP growing by 0.1% in Q2, after a 0.7% rise in Q1 — the best pace in a year — with monthly growth of 0.2% in June, compared to a 0.1% contraction in May.

Pound Outlook

At Economies.com, we expect that if UK economic growth data proves stronger than market forecasts, the probability of a BOE rate cut in September will decline, leading to further gains in the pound’s levels.

The Australian dollar rose in the Asian market on Thursday against a basket of major currencies, extending gains for the third consecutive day against its US counterpart, recording its highest level in two weeks, following the release of strong labor market data in Australia for July.

The data showed further resilience in the Australian economy during the third quarter of this year, which led to reduced expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates at its September meeting.

Price Overview

•The Australian dollar rose against its US counterpart by about 0.4% to 0.6569 — its highest since July 28 — from today’s opening price of 0.6545, with a low of 0.6542.

•On Wednesday, the Australian dollar rose 0.25% against the US dollar, marking a second consecutive daily gain, amid the continued decline of the US currency against a basket of major peers.

Australian Labor Market

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics released on Thursday showed the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% in July, from 4.3% in June — the highest since November 2021 — in line with market expectations for a reading of 4.2%.

The Australian economy added about 24,500 new jobs in July, slightly below market expectations of around 25,300 jobs, after adding about 1,000 jobs in June, revised down from 2,000.

The acceleration in the labor market is the latest indication of the resilience of the Australian economy during the third quarter of this year, reducing the need for the Reserve Bank of Australia to continue easing monetary policy and cutting interest rates.

Australian Interest Rates

•In line with expectations, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates this week by 25 basis points to a range of 3.60% — the lowest since April 2023.

•The RBA stated that further monetary easing may be necessary to achieve its inflation and employment objectives, given that the economy has lost some momentum.

•RBA Governor Michele Bullock indicated the possibility of at least another 50 basis points of easing if core inflation continues to slow from its current 2.7% toward the central bank’s target range of 2%–3%.

•Following the labor market data, market pricing for a 25 basis point RBA rate cut in September fell from 75% to 65%.