Gold prices fell 1% on Thursday after rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns, strengthening bets on higher US interest rates and pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher, adding further pressure on the precious metal.

Spot gold declined 1% to $4,500.07 per ounce. The yellow metal had risen more than 1% during Wednesday’s US trading session after hitting its lowest level since March 30.

US gold futures for June delivery also fell 0.7% to $4,502.90 per ounce.

Oil prices rose more than 2% following a Reuters report stating that Iran’s Supreme Leader issued a directive prohibiting the transfer of highly enriched uranium outside the country.

Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, said: “Fundamentally, everything still revolves around negotiations between Iran and the United States, and within that context we have seen some uncertainty regarding the possibility of reaching an agreement. However, oil prices are now placing increasing pressure on gold.”

The report added that directives from Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei could further frustrate US President Donald Trump and complicate talks aimed at ending the US-Israeli war against Iran.

Gold has lost more than 15% of its value since the outbreak of the war in late February, which disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing energy prices sharply higher and intensifying inflation concerns.

The US dollar strengthened, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while US 10-year Treasury yields resumed their climb, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Staunovo added: “Higher oil prices, which push inflation upward, place pressure on central banks to keep interest rates elevated or even raise them further. Therefore, this remains a negative factor for gold in the near term.”

Although gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, it tends to struggle during periods of rising interest rates.

According to the CME Group FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in a 58% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points this year, compared with a 48% probability just one day earlier.

Investors planning to buy shares in SpaceX through its initial public offering, which is approaching a $2 trillion valuation, are betting on CEO Elon Musk and his ability to transform the company’s growing satellite business into something much larger by using an as-yet unproven rocket system to support massive artificial intelligence ambitions.

Musk successfully transformed SpaceX into the world’s largest rocket company by launching thousands of Starlink internet satellites and pioneering reusable rocket technology that reshaped the economics of the space industry.

But the company is now seeking a valuation based not only on its current achievements, but also on the empire it could eventually become if Musk’s ambitious bets on Mars colonization, space-based data centers, and artificial intelligence leadership succeed.

At the center of these ambitions lies a chain-reaction thesis in which each stage unlocks the next phase of funding and expansion. Starlink is expected to generate the cash flow needed to fund the next-generation Starship rocket, while Starship would lower launch costs and expand the market, eventually supporting the company’s new artificial intelligence business, which continues consuming enormous amounts of capital.

Josh Gilbert, analyst at trading platform eToro, which plans to offer trading in the stock after listing, said: “The risk is not whether SpaceX is a real company, because it clearly is. The real risk is whether a $1.75 trillion valuation adequately reflects the execution challenges of a company that is partly a rocket business, partly an internet provider, and partly an artificial intelligence project — all driven by the vision of one person.”

SpaceX is already testing investor patience after revealing in its S-1 filing losses of $4.28 billion during the three months ending March 31, an eightfold increase compared with the same period last year.

Those losses alone are likely to push investors toward relying less on traditional financial metrics and more on belief in Musk’s ability to execute his promises.

Investor confidence in Musk

From building Tesla into an electric vehicle company worth more than $1 trillion and accelerating the global shift toward clean transportation, to leading SpaceX into becoming the first private company to transport astronauts for NASA, Musk has repeatedly transformed high-risk engineering bets into dominant businesses. That track record strengthened investor confidence that even his most ambitious assumptions for SpaceX could eventually become reality.

Greg Martin, co-founder of Rainmaker Securities, said during a video call: “You cannot justify a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion for SpaceX using traditional financial metrics alone. Many investors believe SpaceX could eventually become a company worth between $5 trillion and $10 trillion.”

Musk’s projects frequently arrive behind schedule. Tesla’s Cybertruck, unveiled in 2019, did not begin deliveries until 2023, while the Roadster 2 announced in 2017 remains under development, alongside Tesla’s low-cost EV platform and Optimus robots. The robotaxi service expected to support near-term growth has also rolled out more slowly than earlier promises suggested.

Even so, investors, analysts, and fund managers interviewed by Reuters largely remain optimistic, with many believing the company’s satellite and space operations alone justify a valuation approaching $2 trillion.

Business risks

SpaceX would join a very small group of companies valued above $2 trillion, most of which generate stable revenue and strong profits.

In contrast, SpaceX’s accumulated deficit reached approximately $41.31 billion by March 31, reflecting years of spending that vastly exceeded revenues due to the cost of developing reusable rockets, the massive Starlink network, and giant artificial intelligence data centers.

Starlink remains the company’s financial backbone after generating $3.26 billion in revenue during the quarter ending in March, up nearly one-third year-on-year, although profit margins faced pressure from international expansion and other expenses.

SpaceX presented Starship not merely as a rocket, but as a core component of the company’s future, stating in the risk factors section of its filing:

“Our ability to execute our growth strategy depends heavily on Starship.”

The company warned that any delays in development or in achieving cost targets could disrupt deployment of next-generation satellites and artificial intelligence infrastructure, increase expenses, and weaken growth and customer retention.

It also stated that its currently operational Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets are incapable of deploying the company’s newest satellites.

Revenue from the space business declined 28.4% during the March quarter, while losses widened to $662 million from $70 million a year earlier as SpaceX poured massive investment into Starship development.

Meanwhile, losses in the artificial intelligence business jumped to $2.47 billion, while capital expenditures tripled to $7.72 billion, exceeding the combined capital spending of all other operations.

SpaceX summarized the challenge by stating:

“The complexity and interconnectedness of our engineering, manufacturing, assembly, ground infrastructure, and space transportation systems mean that disruption in any single component could trigger cascading effects across our entire operations.”

Copper prices surged to new record levels as rising geopolitical disruptions combined with strong long-term demand, although analysts warned that the rally may be moving faster than the market’s actual fundamentals.

The latest gains were driven partly by supply concerns linked to tensions in the Arabian Gulf region, where shipping disruptions created broad effects across industrial inputs. One of the biggest concerns for mining companies is the availability of sulfuric acid, a key material used in copper extraction and processing. Traders say restrictions on this input have already started affecting production costs and supplies across parts of the global mining sector.

At the same time, copper demand continues to benefit from the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure, the clean energy transition, and rising defense spending. Data center construction has become a major new source of demand, as major technology companies continue pouring huge investments into computing capacity and related electrical infrastructure.

Copper market tests record levels

Nikos Tzabouras, analyst at Tradou, said the copper rally reflects the convergence of short-term supply shocks with long-term demand trends that have been building for years.

He added that copper prices “reached new record highs as structural demand drivers converged with supply concerns,” pointing to the growing impact of geopolitical disruptions and shifts in industrial policy. Copper futures on the COMEX exchange tested historic levels last week and extended their strong gains since August.

He explained that the closure of key transportation routes created immediate supply pressures, especially through its impact on sulfuric acid markets, further increasing pressure on already elevated mining costs.

Beyond the current disruptions, Tzabouras said copper’s long-term outlook remains supported by its central role in several structural growth trends.

He said: “Major technology companies continue allocating capital toward building data centers, while the clean energy transition is gaining momentum due to rising oil prices, alongside expanding defense programs as security budgets increase and geopolitical uncertainty intensifies.”

Why is copper performing so strongly?

Copper’s high electrical conductivity and broad industrial use make it essential for power grids, electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and advanced computing infrastructure. As governments and corporations accelerate investments in decarbonization and digital infrastructure, demand for the metal has continued rising even during periods of weaker global industrial activity.

However, Tzabouras warned that the strength of the recent price rally may not be fully supported by short-term market fundamentals. Despite the strong optimism and record prices, the market could move back into surplus later this year as additional supply enters the market and demand growth remains uneven.

He said: “Fundamentals are more mixed than record prices suggest, as the market may return to surplus later this year.”

What about stagflation risks?

These warnings come as the global economy faces increasing pressure from higher energy prices and growing geopolitical fragmentation. Elevated oil prices resulting from Middle East disruptions have revived concerns about stagflation returning to parts of the global economy, which could weaken industrial demand for key raw materials including copper if manufacturing activity slows.

Tzabouras said: “Economic uncertainty could negatively affect consumption of critical metals,” adding that the market’s direction will ultimately depend on whether structural demand can offset cyclical weakness.

For now, copper remains caught between two opposing forces: strong demand linked to electrification and technology, and short-term economic disruption risks. Although the long-term narrative remains positive, analysts believe the speed and scale of the recent rally leave the market vulnerable to volatility if sentiment shifts.

Tzabouras added: “The rally may continue, but the industrial metal remains exposed to correction risks in a highly volatile macroeconomic environment.”

UBS raises copper price forecasts

UBS raised its copper price forecasts, citing a positive fundamental outlook supported by supply constraints and continued energy transition demand, despite mixed short-term demand indicators.

The bank increased its 2026 copper price forecast by 13%, while also raising its 2027 and 2028 forecasts by 4% and 3% respectively to $6 per pound, or $13,200 per ton. It also raised its long-term forecast by 10% to $5.5 per pound.

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange recently climbed back near record highs above $13,000 per ton after a temporary pullback following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. Physical and paper markets have also returned their focus toward copper and mining-related equities.

UBS pointed to ongoing disruptions and lower production estimates at mines including Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg. The bank believes energy price volatility will increase the need for sustainable investment in renewable energy, electricity grids, and industrial reshoring, supporting medium-term copper demand.

According to the bank’s supply and demand model, the market is likely to move into deficit, with tighter physical markets and falling inventories expected to support elevated prices.

However, UBS also warned that the market is not currently facing an extremely severe shortage, as demand indicators remain mixed.

The bank added that mine production continues facing pressure while smelter output remains resilient, meaning the expected copper market deficit may take longer to emerge, and existing inventories must first be depleted before a clear physical shortage appears.

UBS noted that persistently high prices will increase pressure toward demand rationing and substitution, making the short-term outlook more balanced following the recent gains.

Bitcoin remained supported above the $76,000 region, where it formed a price base and stabilized above the $76,500 level before starting a new recovery wave. The price managed to break above both the $76,650 and $77,000 levels.

Buyers also pushed the price above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from the $82,017 high to the $76,020 low. In addition, a bearish trendline with resistance near $77,200 was broken on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin is currently trading above the $77,500 level and also above the 100-hour simple moving average. If the price maintains stability above this area, it may attempt another upward move. Immediate resistance is located near the $78,300 level.

The first major resistance stands near the $79,000 level, which also coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from $82,017 to $76,020.

If Bitcoin closes above the $79,000 resistance zone, the price could continue rising toward the $80,500 level. Any further gains may push the price toward $81,500, while the next key obstacle for bulls could appear near the $82,000 level.

Is Bitcoin heading toward another decline?

If Bitcoin fails to break above the $79,000 resistance area, it may begin another downward move. Immediate support is located near the $77,200 level.

The first major support stands near $76,500, followed by another support zone around $76,000. If losses continue, the price could decline toward the $75,000 support area in the near term.

The main support is currently positioned near $73,500, a level below which Bitcoin may struggle to recover.

Technical indicators:

• The hourly MACD is gaining momentum in positive territory.

• The RSI for the BTC/USD pair is trading above the 50 level.

Key support levels:

• $76,500

• $76,000

Key resistance levels:

• $78,300

• $79,000