Gold prices fell on Monday amid large-scale market turmoil due to concerns about a US recession.

It comes after statements by President Trump to the press on Sunday, refusing to rule out a potential recession in 2025 due to his trade policies. 

Trump said the US economy is going through a large transition, and described his protectionist policies as “very huge”.

The fear index on Wall Street surged by 14.45% to 26.75 points after touching December 18 highs recently amid a heavy market selloff. 

Now investors await important US consumer prices and producer prices data this week.

Otherwise, the dollar index rose 0.1% as of 20:19 GMT to 103.9, with a session-high at 104.06, and a low at 103.5.

On trading, gold spot prices fell 0.8% as of 20:20 GMT to $2891.6 an ounce.

International benchmark Brent rose in European trade on Monday away from four-year lows on active short-covering despite uncertainty about tariffs. 

Prices are boosted by the prospects of additional US tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on Russia if efforts to reach a peace deal with Ukraine failed. 

Prices

Brent rose 0.75% to $70.83 a barrel, with a session-low at $69.87.

Brent rose 1.5% on Friday away from recent four-year lows at $68.37.

International oil prices lost 4% last week, the seventh weekly loss in a row due to the tariff crisis and its impact on global demand. 

Tariffs 

US President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies caused chaos in global markets as he imposed then suspended tariffs on Mexico and Canada multiple times, while imposing multiple new tariffs on China. 

Russian Sanctions 

Trump threatened new sanctions on Russia if it failed to reach a ceasefire deal with Ukraine. 

Reuters sources also said that the US is considering to alleviate sanctions on the Russian energy sector if Russia agreed to end the war with Ukraine.

Iranian Exports

The Trump administration is also attempting to choke Iranian oil exports amid efforts to pressure the country and control its nuclear program, with the Iranian supreme leader Khamenei asserting that his country won’t bend to pressures. 

Bitcoin rose over 4% on Monday on track for the first profit in five days away from a week low at $80,000 after marking the worst weekly performance this year as traders were disappointed by US reserve plans. 

Current gains are underpinned by Wall Street’s rebound from recent five-month lows amid hopes for a Fed rate cut in the first half of the year.

The Price

Bitcoin rose 4% at Bitstamp today to $84,007, with a session-low at $80077.

On Sunday, bitcoin dropped 6.4% at Bitstamp, the fourth loss in a row, plumbing a week trough at $80,000.

Last week, bitcoin swooned 14.5%, the second weekly loss in a row and the heftiest since October 2024.

The losses intensified after the announcement of the disappointing US crypto strategic reserve plans. 

Crypto Market Value 

Crypto market value rallied over $75 billion on Monday to a total of $2.850 trillion.

Wall Street

US stock indices closed higher on Friday away from recent five-month lows, following somewhat weak labor data, which bolstered hopes for a Fed rate cut in the first half of the year.

Now traders await important US inflation data, expected to provide fresh pricing for the path ahead this year for US interest rates. 

The US dollar declined in European trade on Monday against a basket of major rivals, on track for the sixth loss in a row, about to plumb four-month lows amid concerns about US growth due to Trump’s trade policies. 

The US economy added less jobs than expected in February, bolstering the odds of a Fed rate cut during the first half of the year, with traders now waiting for US inflation data this week to gather more clues. 

The Index

The dollar index fell 0.35% today to 103.56, with a session-high at 104.03.

On Friday, the index lost 0.25%, the fifth loss in a row, plumbing four-month lows at 103.46 following weak US labor data. 

The index lost 3.4% last week, the fourth weekly loss in five weeks, and the heftiest since November 2022.

Growth Concerns 

Investors are worried about slower US growth after aggressive tariffs on major trade partners, while recent labor data and government layoffs raised more concerns. 

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the economy might slow down as it shifts from government spending to private investments, and reaches a more sustainable balance.

He believes that some tariff levels will always be necessary to fix some economic imbalances around the world and secure more stable supply chains.

President Trump said during a Fox News interview that the US is undergoing a transition phase, with return of wealth to the US through trade and economic policies, including tariffs to boost local industry.

US Rates

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it remains to be seen whether Trump’s tariff plans will be inflationary. 

According to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a Fed 0.25% rate cut in March stood at just 3%.

Now investors await important US inflation data this week to gather more clues.