Gold prices fell in European trading on Thursday for the first time in three days, pulling back from a three-week high due to profit-taking and a rebound in the US dollar. This reversal comes as investor anxiety grows over the durability of the fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran.

With global oil prices rising again, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining or even raising interest rates this year has regained some traction. Investors are now looking toward upcoming crucial US economic data to reassess the future path of monetary policy.

Price overview

* Gold prices today: the price of gold fell by 0.45% to ($4,698.88), from an opening level of ($4,719.27), while recording a high of ($4,698.88).

* At Wednesday’s close, gold had risen by 0.35%, marking its second consecutive daily gain and reaching a three-week high of $4,857.56 per ounce, supported by the dollar's decline following the announcement of the two-week truce.

US dollar

The dollar index rose by approximately 0.2% on Thursday, beginning its recovery from a four-week low of 98.53 points. This rebound across a basket of global currencies exerts downward pressure on gold, as a stronger dollar makes bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Markets are cautiously weighing the resilience of the ceasefire that began Wednesday. Tensions have remained high following violent Israeli military strikes in Lebanon, which resulted in 254 deaths and drew sharp condemnation from Tehran, casting a shadow of uncertainty over the diplomatic process.

Sho Suzuki, market analyst at Matsui Securities, noted: "Doubts may have begun to surface regarding the sustainability of the ceasefire, or even the fundamental possibility of reaching a final agreement."

Iran war updates

* U.S. Vice President JD Vance described the ceasefire as a "fragile truce," noting that Trump is "eager to make progress."

* The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament claimed the United States has already violated the ceasefire agreement.

* The truce has failed to stop fighting between Israel and Hezbollah; Washington maintains that Lebanon is outside the scope of the agreement, while Tehran insists it is a core provision.

* Iran stated that peace talks would be "illogical" following the strikes in Lebanon, yet both sides are still preparing for talks in Pakistan.

Global oil prices

Global oil prices rose by more than 1% on Thursday, recovering from multi-week lows. Renewed fears that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed again to tankers have reignited concerns over global supply stability.

US interest rates

* According to the CME FedWatch Tool: the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in April is at 98%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike stands at 2%.

* While the pause in active conflict led some traders to price in rate cuts later this year, this outlook is being challenged by the rebound in energy prices and geopolitical instability.

* Investors await crucial US data on economic growth and headline inflation, scheduled for release on Thursday and Friday, to refine these expectations.

Expectations for gold performance

Edward Meir, analyst at Marex, stated: "The ceasefire helps calm markets and ease pressures, potentially paving the way for Fed rate cuts, which is positive for gold." However, he warned that the situation remains "extremely fragile" and that the current market recovery could be short-lived if negotiations collapse.

SPDR fund

Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell by 1.43 metric tons on Wednesday, bringing the total to 1,052.99 metric tons and retreating from its highest level since February 20.

The euro fell in European trading on Thursday against a basket of global currencies, giving up its five-week high against the US dollar due to correction and profit-taking operations, as the American currency recovered from low levels amid growing investor concerns regarding the fragility of the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran.

With eurozone inflation exceeding the European Central Bank’s medium-term target due to rising energy prices, the probabilities of raising European interest rates at least once this year increased, pending the release of more crucial economic data in Europe.

Price overview

* Euro exchange rate today: the euro fell against the dollar by 0.1% to ($1.1650), from the opening price of the day at ($1.1662), and recorded the highest level at ($1.1665).

* The euro ended Wednesday’s trading up by 0.6% against the dollar, in the third consecutive daily gain, and recorded a five-week high at $1.1722, after the United States and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire, which includes opening the Strait of Hormuz to global navigation.

US dollar

The dollar index rose on Thursday by about 0.2%, to begin recovering from a four-week low at 98.53 points, reflecting a recovery in the levels of the American currency against a basket of global currencies.

Investors cautiously and anxiously assessed the resilience of the fragile ceasefire, which began yesterday, Wednesday, and lasts for two weeks between the United States and Iran, in light of escalating regional tensions, especially after Israel launched violent military attacks on Lebanon, which angered Iranian authorities and increased uncertainty in the markets.

Sho Suzuki, market analyst at Matsui Securities, said: Some doubts may have begun to appear about the sustainability of the ceasefire expectations, or even the possibility of concluding a final ceasefire at all.

Iran war updates

* U.S. Vice President JD Vance describes the ceasefire with Iran as a "fragile truce" and says that Trump is "eager to make progress."

* The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament states that the United States violated the ceasefire agreement.

* The ceasefire agreement fails to stop the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, and Israeli strikes result in the death of 254 people in Lebanon.

* Iran says that peace talks will be "illogical" in the wake of the Israeli strikes on Lebanon.

* Washington confirms that the situation in Lebanon is outside the framework of the ceasefire agreement, while Tehran insists that it is one of the fundamental clauses.

* The United States and Iran prepare for talks in Pakistan amid disputes between the two countries over the terms of the nuclear program.

European interest rates

* Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, said: the bank is ready to raise interest rates even if the expected rise in inflation is short-term.

* Data released recently showed that inflation in the eurozone exceeded the European Central Bank's target to reach 2.5% in March with the rise in energy prices.

* Following that data, the money market pricing of the probabilities of the European Central Bank raising European interest rates by about 25 basis points in this April rose from 30% to 35%.

* Sources reported to Reuters that the European Central Bank is likely to begin discussing raising interest rates during the meeting of this month.

* In order to re-price the above probabilities, investors await the release of more economic data in the eurozone regarding the levels of inflation, unemployment, and wages.

The Japanese yen fell in Asian trading on Thursday against a basket of major and minor currencies, giving up its three-week high against the US dollar due to correction and profit-taking operations, as the American currency recovered from low levels amid growing investor concerns regarding the fragility of the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran.

In light of the current division over the probabilities of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates when it meets later this year, the latest forecasts indicate that in the event of the collapse of the ceasefire in the Middle East, Japanese interest rates will remain unchanged for the third consecutive meeting.

Price overview

* Japanese yen exchange rate today: the dollar rose against the yen by 0.25% to (¥158.95), from the opening price of the day at (¥158.54), and recorded the lowest level at (¥158.45).

* The yen ended Wednesday’s trading up by 0.65% against the dollar, in the second consecutive daily gain, and recorded a three-week high at 157.89 yen, after the United States and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire, which includes opening the Strait of Hormuz to global navigation.

US dollar

The dollar index rose on Thursday by about 0.2%, to begin recovering from a four-week low at 98.53 points, reflecting a recovery in the levels of the American currency against a basket of global currencies.

Investors cautiously and anxiously assessed the resilience of the fragile ceasefire, which began yesterday, Wednesday, and lasts for two weeks between the United States and Iran, in light of escalating regional tensions, especially after Israel launched violent military attacks on Lebanon, which angered Iranian authorities and increased uncertainty in the markets.

Sho Suzuki, market analyst at Matsui Securities, said: Some doubts may have begun to appear about the sustainability of the ceasefire expectations, or even the possibility of concluding a final ceasefire at all.

Iran war updates

* U.S. Vice President JD Vance describes the ceasefire with Iran as a "fragile truce" and says that Trump is "eager to make progress."

* The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament states that the United States violated the ceasefire agreement.

* The ceasefire agreement fails to stop the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, and Israeli strikes result in the death of 254 people in Lebanon.

* Iran says that peace talks will be "illogical" in the wake of the Israeli strikes on Lebanon.

* Washington confirms that the situation in Lebanon is outside the framework of the ceasefire agreement, while Tehran insists that it is one of the fundamental clauses.

* The United States and Iran prepare for talks in Pakistan amid disputes between the two countries over the terms of the nuclear program.

Japanese interest rates

* The pricing of the probabilities of the Japanese central bank raising interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in the April meeting is stable around 10%.

* In order to re-price those probabilities, investors await the release of more data about the levels of inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan.

Expectations about the performance of the Japanese yen

Sho Suzuki, market analyst at Matsui Securities, said: With the continued situation in the Middle East, there seems to be a trend toward expansionary fiscal policy again. This in turn contributes to the weakness of the yen.

Suzuki added: In the event of the collapse of the ceasefire, expectations for a interest rate hike in April may begin to fade, which may in turn lead to the weakness of the yen.

Suzuki explained: Raising the interest rate depends heavily on the situation in Iran, so it is likely that the Bank of Japan will wait until the last moment before the meeting to assess the developments of the situation.

Iran and the United States have reached a conditional ceasefire agreement for a period of two weeks, during which maritime traffic will be permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

This development comes more than a month after coordinated attacks launched by the United States and Israel on Iran, and only hours after U.S. President Donald Trump issued a threat stating that "an entire civilization will be destroyed tonight" if Iran did not reopen the strait.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who mediated the negotiations, stated early Wednesday that the ceasefire had entered into effect immediately.

U.S. and Iranian Statements

Trump stated that he agreed to "suspend the bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks" provided that Tehran agrees to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for oil shipments and other exports from the Gulf.

In a post on his platform, Truth Social, Trump clarified that he agreed to the temporary ceasefire because "military objectives have already been achieved and exceeded."

This follows his earlier warnings that the United States could eliminate Iran "in one night" and that "an entire civilization will be destroyed tonight and will never return," threats that were condemned by both UN Secretary-General António Guterres and Pope Leo XIV.

Later on Wednesday, Trump stated that the United States would work closely with Iran and discuss "tariff exemptions and sanctions relief." He added in another post that "any country supplying Iran with military weapons will immediately be subject to a 50% tariff on all goods sold to the United States, effective immediately, and there will be no exceptions or exemptions."

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the U.S. military will ensure Iran adheres to the ceasefire and comes to the negotiating table. He added that forces will remain "in their positions, ready, vigilant, and prepared to resume operations at any moment."

For its part, Iran agreed to allow the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks, with the passage to be coordinated by the Iranian military. Iran also issued a 10-point plan, including, among other things: a complete halt to the war in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen; "full commitment" to lifting sanctions on Iran; the release of frozen Iranian funds held by the United States; and "full payment of compensation for reconstruction costs." The plan added that "Iran fully commits to not seeking to possess any nuclear weapons."

The Iranian Supreme National Security Council said in a statement: "Iran's victory on the ground will also be consolidated in political negotiations."

According to Sharif, the ceasefire will also include Lebanon, where Israel is engaged in confrontations with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group.

Israel's Position

Sirens sounded in Israel immediately after Trump’s announcement, and the Israel Defense Forces said they intercepted missiles launched from Iran. Loud explosions were also heard in Jerusalem on Tuesday evening.

Hours after the ceasefire was confirmed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: "Israel supports President Trump’s decision to suspend strikes on Iran for two weeks provided that Iran opens the straits immediately and ceases all attacks on the United States, Israel, and other countries in the region." The statement added that "the ceasefire does not include Lebanon," where Israeli ground forces are present. It remains unclear to what extent Netanyahu was involved in the decision-making process with Trump.

Next Steps

Pakistan, which is mediating the negotiations, called for delegations to meet in Islamabad on Friday "to negotiate more broadly on a final agreement to settle all disputes."

White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt acknowledged that there are ongoing discussions regarding in-person meetings, but stressed that "nothing is final until it is officially announced by the President or the White House."

Regardless of the form of the negotiations, they are expected to be extremely difficult. Some strikes continued after the ceasefire, as Kuwait reported Wednesday morning that Iranian attacks caused damage to power and desalination plants as well as oil facilities. The Kuwaiti military said in a statement on the X platform: "Kuwait's air defenses intercepted an intense wave of hostile Iranian attacks, as 28 drones targeting the State of Kuwait were dealt with."

The United States and Iran appear to have contradictory positions on what the ceasefire includes. It is worth noting that both countries held two rounds of talks during the past year, and both rounds led to an escalation of military tension amid negotiations.

The leaders of France, Italy, Germany, Britain, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, Spain, and the European Union welcomed the ceasefire and called in a joint statement for a "swift and lasting end" to the war. They said: "We call on all parties to implement the ceasefire, including in Lebanon."