Gold advances to near a record high
Gold prices rose on Thursday on track for the third straight session, hitting a two-week high and trading near a recent record high on strong haven demand amid mounting global trade tensions.
US inflation has also slowed down in February, bolstering the odds of a Fed interest rate cut in the first half of the year.
Prices
Gold prices rose 0.5% today to $2948 an ounce, the highest since February 25, with a session-low at $2933.
On Wednesday, gold rose 0.6%, the second profit in a row on strong heaven demand.
The precious metal hit record highs on February 24 at $2956 an ounce before entering a downward correction.
Global Trade Tensions
US President Donald Trump announced plans to escalate the global trade war through imposing additional tariffs on European commodities.
The threat comes after Trump already imposed 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, triggering strong reactions from all major US partners.
European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen announced plans to retaliate on a variety of US products starting April 2025, including bourbon and Harley Davidson products.
US Rates
Recent data showed US consumer prices slowed down more than expected, bolstering the odds of a Fed rate cut in the summer.
According to the Fedwatch tool, the odds of a Fed 0.25% rate cut in March stood at just 3%.
However, the odds of such a cut in June are much higher at 78%.
Now traders await important US producer prices and unemployment claims data today to gather more clues.
SPDR
Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust rose 3.44 tons yesterday to a total of 898.64 tons, the highest in a week.
Euro backs off five-month high on Trump's trade threats
The euro fell in European trade on Thursday against a basket of major rivals, extending losses for the second session against the dollar and backing off five-month highs on profit-taking, as Donald Trump threatens more tariffs on the EU.
Trump already imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, hitting the EU in particular, which announced retaliatory tariffs on US products worth 26 billion euros.
The Price
The EUR/USD fell 0.1% today to $1.0878, with a session-high at $1.0897.
The pair fell 0.3% on Wednesday, marking the first loss in four days on profit-taking away from a five-month high at $1.0947.
Trade Tensions
US President Donald Trump announced plans to escalate the global trade war through imposing additional tariffs on European commodities.
The threat comes after Trump already imposed 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, triggering strong reactions from all major US partners.
European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen announced plans to retaliate on a variety of US products starting April 2025, including bourbon and Harley Davidson products.
Trump reiterated his threats of reciprocal tariffs on the EU for any tariffs they announce.
Lagarde
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde cautioned that the eurozone is exposed to exceptional shocks due to the trade war, military conditions, and climate issues, threatening increasing inflation.
Yen resumes gains on Japanese treasury yields
The Japanese yen rose in Asian trade on Thursday against a basket of major rivals, resuming gains against the dollar after a two-day hiatus and approaching five-month highs once more amid active haven demand, while Japanese 10-year treasury yields rallied.
Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda expects real wages and consumption in Japan to improve, thus increasing inflationary pressures and the need to normalize the monetary policy.
The Price
The USD/JPY pair fell 0.3% to 147.80 yen per dollar, with a session-high at 148.37.
The yen fell 0.3% against the dollar on Wednesday, the second loss in a row, on profit-taking away from a five-month high at 146.54.
Japanese Yields
Japan’s 10-year treasury yields rose 1.3% today to near a 16-year peak at 1.585%, underpinning the yen.
Reuters reports that the BOJ might consider another rate hike in May due to expected growth in wages and extended rises in food prices.
Sources said the BOJ decision will depend on price outlook and the impact of Trump’s policies on the financial markets.
Ueda
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Thursday that when inflation accelerated in 2022, the gains of wages were late compared to the increase in import costs, keeping real wages and consumption weak.
However, now the BOJ expects a balanced inflation boosted by both wage increases and higher import costs, with consumption ticking up steadily.
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