Gold price forecast update 25-09-2024
Gold price shows bearish bias to test the breached resistance of the bullish channel that appears on the chart, and the price needs to consolidate above 2647.00$ to keep the bullish trend active for today, as breaking it will push the price to start bearish wave on the intraday basis.
On the other hand, the price needs to get positive momentum that assist to resume the expected bullish wave for today, reminding you that our next main target reaches 2700.00$.
The expected trading range for today is between 2650.00$ support and 2690.00$ resistance.
Trend forecast: Bullish
The GBPUSD forecast update 25-09-2024
The GBPUSD price shows some bearish bias now to head towards potential test to the key support 1.3355$, as it is affected by the RSI negativity, and as we mentioned this morning, the price needs to hold above this support to keep the bullish trend valid for today, as breaking it will force the price to turn to decline, while the price needs to surpass 1.3400$ barrier to confirm heading towards 1.3500$ that represents the next target of the suggested bullish wave.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.3355$ support and 1.3505$ resistance.
Trend forecast: Bullish
The EURUSD price forecast update - 25-09-2024
The EURUSD price finds solid resistance at 1.1200$ level, to show some slight bearish bias now, affected by stochastic negativity, waiting to get positive motive that assist to push the price to resume the expected bullish trend for today, which its targets begin by breaching the mentioned level to confirm heading towards 1.1300$, reminding you that failing to achieve the breach will put the price under negative pressure that targets 1.1100$ areas mainly.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.1130$ support and 1.1280$ resistance.
Trend forecast: Bullish
Oil Prices are Nearing a New Recovery Phase... Is Now The Best Time To Invest?
Global Oil Prices Decline
Global oil prices slipped earlier in September 2024 to their lowest levels, pressured by concerns over weak global demand, especially due to declining consumption in China.
With increased buying at low levels, along with growing fears of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their potential negative impact on global supplies, oil prices are nearing a new recovery phase.
This recovery could turn into a significant surge in global oil prices, especially after OPEC+ postponed its planned production increase, initially scheduled for October, to a later date.
Additionally, China announced a series of monetary stimuli to support struggling economic activities, which is expected to boost demand and consumption in the world's second-largest fuel consumer.
Factors supporting oil prices include the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at a significant pace as part of a new easing cycle in the United States.
Moreover, major central banks in Europe, the U.K., Canada, and New Zealand continue to lower interest rates to support weak economic activities, which is expected to contribute to improving global demand.
However, potential delays in oil price recovery could arise if global economic indicators continue to show signs of contraction, along with the reduced likelihood of the new conflict between Israel and Hezbollah turning into a wider regional war.
From the above narrative, it is evident that the factors supporting higher global oil prices are the dominant ones, enhancing the chances of a new recovery that opens the door to promising short and medium-term investment opportunities.
Geopolitical Tensions
The opening of a new military conflict front in the Middle East between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon has escalated geopolitical tensions, which could evolve into a wider regional war at any moment, threatening oil supplies from the largest production area in the world.
Israel launched airstrikes on targets in southern Lebanon, killing nearly 500 people in the deadliest day of strikes since its 2006 war with Hezbollah.
Hezbollah responded with a large-scale rocket attack on the city of Haifa, which sounded air raid sirens for the first time since 2006.
The Israeli army continues to amass ground forces along the northern border in preparation for a ground intervention in southern Lebanon, further exacerbating global geopolitical tensions.
Iran, which supports Hezbollah, said earlier it was ready to de-escalate the tensions.
OPEC+ Production Delay
The OPEC+ alliance postponed the planned production increase, which was supposed to start in October by about 180,000 barrels per day, citing the sharp decline in global oil prices as the reason for the delay.
Goldman Sachs expects the alliance to begin increasing production in December, and predicts Brent crude will trade in the range of $70 to $85 per barrel.
Chinese Monetary Stimulus
The Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, announced a series of monetary stimulus measures during a conference in Beijing this week, marking the largest intervention by Chinese authorities so far to achieve the country's 5% economic growth target for this year.
The stimulus measures include lowering the short-term benchmark interest rate of the People's Bank of China to boost lending by banks to consumers and businesses.
These measures represent the largest intervention since the Chinese central bank's efforts to support the world's second-largest economy during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, aiming to quickly pull the economy out of contraction and achieve the country's economic targets.
The broader-than-expected monetary package is Beijing's latest attempt to restore confidence after a series of disappointing data that raised concerns of a prolonged structural slowdown.
IG Market Analyst Tony Sycamore said: "The crude oil market has been desperately looking for more stimulus from Chinese authorities to counter the economic slowdown."
Sycamore added: "Today's announcement will go a long way in removing the downside risks to crude oil prices."
Key Challenges for Oil Prices in 2024
- Continued geopolitical uncertainty, including the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East.
- Global economic slowdown, which could negatively impact oil demand.
- Increased production from non-OPEC+ countries, which could raise supply.
- The shift towards renewable energy, which may reduce reliance on fossil fuels.
- Concerns about climate change and environmental pressures on governments and companies to reduce carbon emissions.
Major Forecasts for Oil Prices in 2024
- Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to rise to $85 per barrel this year.
- Citi Bank forecasts oil prices will rise to $95 per barrel this year.
- Morgan Stanley predicts oil will reach $98 per barrel by the end of 2024.
- Deutsche Bank forecasts oil prices will reach $97 per barrel by the end of 2024.
- Barclays Bank raised its oil price forecast by $5, targeting $92 per barrel by the end of this year.
- Jefferies Financial Group expects Brent crude to end the year at $96 per barrel.
Frequently Asked Questions on Oil Prices
- Is the current oil price good for investment? Oil is currently trading around $70 per barrel, and with expectations of rising prices, these levels are considered suitable for investment.
- How can one invest in oil? You can invest in oil through oil ETFs, buying shares of oil companies, or trading oil futures contracts.
- Will oil prices reach $100 per barrel? Based on geopolitical and economic factors, it is possible that prices could rise during 2025.
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Technical Analysis of Oil Prices
The weekly oil price chart shows that the price has been under downward pressure since the beginning of the third quarter of this year, entering a bearish wave nearing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level measured from $0.441 to $126.34. This signals further potential corrections in the medium and long term.
On the other hand, the price has been consolidating inside a descending triangle since the historical peak mentioned earlier. The support level of this pattern lies at $63.40, and a breakdown could push the price lower, testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $48.54.
Alternative Perspective
On the daily chart, we observe that the price continues to make lower highs during its downward journey from the previously mentioned peak. After a brief corrective upward move, the price is once again facing bearish pressure, which is likely to continue the downtrend, as indicated by the loss of positive momentum shown clearly by the Stochastic indicator.
These factors suggest that the price is likely to continue its bearish trend in the near term, targeting $69.60 and $66.00, followed by a critical support level at $63.40. Breaking this support would result in further declines towards the targets mentioned earlier.
Alternative Scenario
On the other hand, a recovery above the resistance areas around $78.25 would halt the expected bearish trend and push the price toward recovery, initiating new bullish waves targeting $85.00, followed by $96.60.
