Trending: Oil | Gold | BITCOIN | EUR/USD | GBP/USD
WhatsApp Telegram LinkedIn Facebook X TikTok Instagram

Election Day 2024: How Today’s Trump vs. Harris Outcome Could Shape Financial Markets

Economies.com
2024-11-05 00:13AM UTC
 

A sense of calm, caution, and risk-aversion prevails in most global financial markets, as investors prepare to follow the voting process in the US presidential election, set to begin on Tuesday, November 5.   This election is expected to decide the heated confrontation between the Democratic Party candidate "Kamala Harris" and the Republican candidate "Donald Trump," adding further tension to markets that await results likely to have a significant impact on future economic policies.  

 

The US presidential election is a pivotal event not only within the United States but also has large and deep effects on the global economy. This electoral race is considered critical on a broad scale, as its results could reshape economic policy in the United States, significantly affecting investments and financial markets worldwide.   Historically, the US presidential election has proven its ability to influence financial markets, with investors always responding to potential decisions and policies the winner might adopt.   Forecasts suggest that a Harris victory may lead to continuity in the current economic policies in the United States without any substantial changes.  

 

Super Tuesday

 

There is an atmosphere of anticipation in the United States with the approach of "Super Tuesday" in the presidential election, where unprecedented closeness is evident between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.   "Super Tuesday" is a major turning point in the campaign, as voters anxiously await the election results, and swing states are expected to play a decisive role in determining the identity of the next president.  

 

Historically, states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia have represented key deciding factors, and this may recur in the current election scheduled for November 5. "Super Tuesday" will be a decisive stop in the history of US elections, and we await the outcome of this heated confrontation between Harris and Trump.  

 

Opinion Polls

 

According to recent opinion polls, Harris and Trump are tied at 49% each, making every vote crucial. This tie highlights the intense polarization currently existing in the United States, where small differences in voter turnout percentages play a critical role in determining the winner.  

 

Some statistics indicate a slight lead for Harris nationally, but the race in several swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan remains tight, increasing the importance of these states in deciding the winner.   A poll by the "Des Moines Register" in Iowa showed Harris leading by 3 percentage points over Trump, which is seen as a strong indicator of her potential performance in neighboring Wisconsin, particularly among female voters.   Analysts from JPMorgan wrote in a note: "Since last week, Harris has seen a lead in the polls, highlighted by the 'Selzer' polls in Iowa, which some use as an indicator of performance in critical blue wall states."  

 

The betting platform "Predict It" showed Harris at 54 cents compared to 52 cents for Trump, reflecting what investors are willing to bet for a chance to win one dollar, compared to 42 cents for Harris and 61 cents for Trump just a week ago.  

 

Key Economic Issues

 

The upcoming US election on Tuesday will leave a profound mark on the economy of the United States, determining new standards for taxes imposed on Americans and the country’s directions in international trade.   Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party’s candidate, and Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, reflect sharply contrasting political and economic visions.   These visions will not only affect immigration policies and the job market but also define how energy resources are managed and everyday living costs, ranging from commodity prices to loan interest rates for families and businesses.  

 

The economic impact of this election will not be limited to the identity of the elected president alone but will also be greatly influenced by party control over Congress.   This control will be crucial for approving tax changes, even though the president holds broad powers to make strategic decisions, particularly in the fields of trade and immigration.  

 

Taxes

 

Kamala Harris seeks to extend tax cuts for middle-class households while increasing them for the wealthy and large corporations, and offering additional exemptions to families and small businesses.   Conversely, Donald Trump aims to extend current tax cuts and reduce corporate taxes, offsetting revenue losses through tariffs on imports.   The makeup of the next Congress will be critical in determining future tax policies, especially as the 2017 tax cuts are set to expire.  

 

Trade

Kamala Harris supports the trade policies of current President "Joe Biden" and warns that Trump’s plans might impose a national sales tax. She also opposes foreign takeovers of sensitive industries.   In contrast, Donald Trump proposes significant tariff increases to compel companies to relocate production back to the United States, which could reduce GDP and increase inflation in the country. He also opposes foreign takeovers of sensitive industries.  

 

Immigration

 

Harris plans to take limited steps to reduce illegal border crossings, a policy that will require bipartisan support if Congress remains divided post-election. The new president will have broad authority in immigration matters.   Conversely, Trump has promised to deport large numbers of undocumented immigrants, which could negatively impact sectors such as construction, hospitality, and retail, disrupting the labor market and business operations at a high cost.  

 

Energy

 

Kamala Harris leans toward clean energy, pledging to reduce household energy costs and focusing on addressing the climate crisis through clean energy initiatives and protecting public lands.   In contrast, Donald Trump adopts the slogan "Drill Hard," promising to reduce regulations on oil, natural gas, and coal production while making more federal land available for fossil fuel production, which would lead to cost reductions.  

 

The former president also stated he would work to end current President Joe Biden's policies that support green energy generation.  

 

Deficit

 

Analysts predict that the fiscal deficit will increase under the plans of both candidates, but Trump's plan may nearly double the deficit compared to Harris’s plan.   According to estimates by the Federal Responsibility Committee, Harris's plan would add $3.95 trillion to the deficit over a decade, while Trump’s plan could add $7.75 trillion.   The growing deficit could lead to higher interest rates and borrowing costs. Nonetheless, investors are currently interested in buying US Treasury bonds.  

 

This suggests diminishing concerns about US fiscal policy, despite warnings of an unsustainable fiscal path that could lead to market volatility.  

China File

 

The world eagerly awaits the results of the US presidential election to see who will lead the world's largest economy, though China may be the one exception to this enthusiasm.   Despite internal divisions within the United States, there is broad consensus among both Republicans and Democrats on adopting a firm stance toward Beijing.  

 

Donald Trump announced his intention to resume his tough trade policies against China, including tariffs ranging from 10% to 60% on Chinese imports.   Kamala Harris, on the other hand, has pointed to a different approach based on risk reduction with China rather than complete disengagement.  

 

Experts believe the US stance on China will remain tough, but the differences lie in how these policies are implemented; each candidate's approach to dealing with Beijing will depend on either direct escalation or more balanced strategies.  

 

US Dollar

 

Analysts believe that Trump's ambitious policies on immigration, tax cuts, and tariffs could place upward pressure on inflation, bond yields, and the US dollar.   In contrast, Harris is viewed as the candidate for continuity, retaining fiscal and monetary policies without major changes, which would keep downward pressure on bond yields and the US dollar.  

 

Chris Weston, an analyst at Pepperstone Brokerage, stated: "Trump's victory is widely considered favorable for the US dollar, though many believe this outcome is already priced in."   Weston added: "A Trump presidency with full congressional control could have the most significant impact, potentially leading to intense selling of Treasury bonds, resulting in a substantial rise in the US dollar."  

 

Weston explained: Harris's victory and a split Congress would likely lead to a swift exit of Trump-linked trades from pricing, making the dollar likely to decline.  

 

Gold and the $3,000 Threshold per Ounce

 

Most analysts and experts expect that a potential victory for former President Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election and his return to power in the United States will lead to a significant rise in gold prices.  

  • The previous impact of Trump on gold prices: During his previous presidency, Trump adopted controversial economic and trade policies, including tariffs on China and trade wars with other countries.  
  • The potential impact of Trump on gold prices: Analysts and experts predict that a potential victory for former President Donald Trump in the next presidential election could drive gold prices to new record levels.  
  • Opinions and analyses: Michael Morrison, an economist at Goldman Sachs, stated: "A Trump victory would increase market uncertainty due to his unconventional economic approaches and controversial statements, which could push gold prices up once again."  
 

US Stocks in Wall Street

 

Some circles speculate that "US stocks in Wall Street" are betting on Trump winning the heated electoral race.   When examining actual investments in the stock market based on these expectations, calmness seems to be the dominant theme.  

 

Investment professionals understand that predicting the winner of the election before it occurs can yield significant gains, but the challenge lies in the extremely close nature of the current election, making the risk of error exceedingly high for many.  

 

Bitcoin and Historic Levels

 

The past October was unlike any other in the world of cryptocurrencies, with prices not experiencing the traditional rises that the crypto community has come to expect, diverging from the forecasts that once gave the month the name "Uptober."  

 

Former US President Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s candidate in the upcoming presidential election, expressed support for cryptocurrencies in the United States, stating that he plans to make his country "the planet's cryptocurrency capital."  

 

Trump stated that if the United States does not adopt cryptocurrency and Bitcoin technology, China will. He added that Washington will not allow Beijing to dominate and does not want China to succeed in this matter.  

 

Thanks to these comments, a Trump victory in the election is seen as strong support for Bitcoin and crypto assets, potentially pushing the largest cryptocurrency to new historical highs before the end of the year.  

 

 

Best Trading Brokers During the US Presidential Election

 

  • Pepperstone, the best trusted trading company for beginners. 
  • XM, the best trading platform. It offers educational materials and trade copying. 
  • PuPrime , a trusted and safe option for beginners in trading.
 

General Technical Outlook on Markets

 

Technical Analysis of Gold

 

The price of gold continues to rise, reaching historic peaks as it hit $2,787.50 last week. We observe that the upward trend lines are supporting the price to achieve further anticipated gains, moving within a short-term upward channel that has been guiding the bullish wave since last July. This channel supports the chances of continued growth, reaching new historic levels beyond $2,800 and approaching the $2,900 zone per ounce.

 

 

 

Technical indicators support the ongoing upward trend, with the 50-moving average providing positive support, while the Stochastic Indicator is attempting to gain positive momentum over medium and long timeframes, adding further reinforcement to the expected positive scenario.

 

On the other hand, it’s essential to note that the U.S. election results may trigger a shift toward a downward trend, possibly prompting a corrective decline, especially if Trump prevails in the election. This could drive the price out of the ascending channel by breaking the support level at $2,690, potentially initiating declines, starting with testing the $2,557 areas and possibly extending to $2,414.20 if the previous level is breached.

 

 

 

 

Therefore, caution is advised in the coming trades, especially during the elections and upon the announcement of results, as markets may witness mixed trades and require some time before fully absorbing the results, leading to clearer movements.

 

In general, the upward trend is expected to persist unless the $2,690 support level is broken, which would initiate the potential downward correction.

 

Technical Analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index

 

The daily chart of the U.S. Dollar Index shows that the index began a downward correction after its upward momentum from the 89.50 to the 114.72 area. During this corrective journey, in mid-last year, the index relied on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 99.14, rebounding upwards in an attempt to resume its primary upward trend. However, it continues to lose momentum with each upward attempt, falling back closer to the mentioned retracement level.

 

 

 

This movement pattern suggests a potential decline in the index in the upcoming period, likely leading the dollar to lose value against major currencies. Breaking below 102.11 will confirm the trend toward challenging the critical support at 99.14, which, if breached, would set the index on a downward path, targeting areas like 95.45 and potentially reaching the previously mentioned low of 89.50 as the next negative target.

 

Why will U.S. election results be significant for the U.S. Dollar Index? A Trump victory would favor the dollar, leading it to recover and gain in the short to medium term, with surpassing the 105.10 resistance marking the beginning of new upward movements, with targets starting around 108.75 and potentially reaching the high mentioned at the start of this report at 114.72.

 

Thus, a natural movement in the index would suggest a decline in the upcoming period unless a positive trigger bolsters the dollar, prompting new bullish waves.

 

Technical Analysis of Bitcoin Price

 

The price of Bitcoin has resumed its general upward trend, nearing the historic peak recorded at the beginning of this year at $73,817.90. The path seems open to continued growth and reaching new historic highs, especially after successfully breaking the downward trend line shown in the chart below. The price is approaching a critical support level around $66,910.00, waiting to resume positive trades.

 

 

 

The exponential moving average (EMA) of 50 provides positive support for the price, enhancing chances of continued growth in the short and medium term. If the price breaks above $73,817.90, it will achieve new positive targets, starting at $76,000 and reaching the next key milestone at $80,000.

 

The Stochastic Indicator shows positive signs on daily timeframes, providing additional positive support and favoring continued upward movement in the coming period.

 

However, caution should be exercised, as a break below $66,910.00 would pressure the price into a downward correction. The first targets are around $60,040 - $60,000, where the price might attempt to stabilize before resuming its upward trend. If this level is broken, it would lead to further negative pressure, with new losses possibly extending to $55,000 and then $51,515 in the short term.

 

Technical Analysis of Dow Jones Industrial Index

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Index continues its long-term rise, and recently, after reaching a peak at 43,379.50, the index has shown a downward pullback, which could be a potential short-term corrective decline. However, we mainly rely on the upward channels shown in the chart below, which suggest the continued dominance of the general upward trend.

 

 

 

Technical indicators provide positive signals supporting the continued dominance of the upward trend, with the 50-exponential moving average (EMA) providing solid support from below, while the Stochastic Indicator shows positive momentum, which we expect to contribute to further gains in the coming period. The index needs to surpass the aforementioned peak to pave the way for moving toward the 45,000 target as the next primary goal.

 

Conversely, the index might face downward corrective pressure if the support of the current upward channel around 40,500 is broken. This would trigger a downward wave targeting the 37,440 level as the primary target, after which the index is expected to resume the main upward trend, achieving long-term expected gains.

 

 

 

In conclusion, we expect the upward trend to continue in the medium to long term. Surpassing 43,380 will confirm the continued positive trades, while breaking 40,500 will initiate a downward correction targeting areas around 37,440 before any new upward attempt.

 

International Seaways price tries to recoup some losses - Forecast today - 04-11-2024

Economies.com
2024-11-04 13:08PM UTC

International Seaways’ stock price (INSW) inched higher in the intraday levels, while trying to recoup some recent losses, as it also vents off oversold saturation in the RSI, amid the dominance of the downward correctional trend in the short term, with negative pressure from trading below the 50-day SMA. 

 

Therefore we expect the stock to return lower,targeting the pivotal support of $40.11, provided the resistance of $47.95 holds on.

Dow price amid negative outlook - Forecast today - 04-11-2024

Economies.com
2024-11-04 13:08PM UTC

Dow’s stock price fell in the intraday levels, while suffering negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day SMA, amid the dominance of the downward correctional trend in the medium term, with negative signals from the RSI despite settling at oversold levels. 

 

Therefore we expect more losses for the stock, targeting the pivotal support of $47.26, provided it settles below the resistance of $50.46. 

UnitedHealth price trapped in a hesitant place - Forecast today - 04-11-2024

Economies.com
2024-11-04 13:04PM UTC

UnitedHealth Group’s stock price (UNH) edged higher in the intraday levels, while trading alongside the main upward trend line in the short term, with positive signals from the RSI after reaching oversold levels, as the stock suffers negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day SMA.

 

Therefore we expect more gains for the stock, targeting the pivotal resistance of $607.94, provided the support of $554.70 holds on.

Frequently asked questions

What is the price of Gold today?

The price of Gold is $3308.680 (2025-07-07 08:55AM UTC)