Corn futures in Chicago recorded fresh contract lows again this week, while soybean prices edged closer to single digits, as forecasts continue to point to abundant U.S. crops.

December corn contracts remain slightly above last year’s levels, while November soybean contracts reached their lowest for this date in five years. However, when adjusted for inflation, current July averages for both corn and soybeans are at their lowest for any July since 2006.

This sharp decline comes as U.S. exporters struggle to maintain their global market share in grains and oilseeds—once considered strongholds—amid continued expansion of Brazilian production.

Low prices weigh on U.S. farmers

Low prices are particularly painful for U.S. farmers, as input costs remain relatively high. Corn prices have fallen by at least 30% since mid-2022, both in nominal and inflation-adjusted terms.

Yet the national average cost of producing corn has declined by only 3% this year compared to 2022, and by 11% after accounting for inflation.

In other words, today’s $4-per-bushel corn price does not carry the same value it once did, even though U.S. supply forecasts remain historically modest.

2006 Benchmark

So far in July, the average corn price for December contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade stands at $4.21 per bushel, while the average for November soybean contracts is $10.20.

This compares to full-month July 2024 averages of $4.12 for corn and $10.67 for soybeans.

U.S. data released Tuesday showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-over-year in June, pushing the inflation-adjusted average corn price for July 2024 to $4.23—roughly equal to the adjusted price of July 2020.

In nominal terms, corn prices have been lower in July on 11 occasions since 2006.

But after adjusting for inflation, the current $4.21 price is the lowest since 2006, when the inflation-adjusted price was $4.19—or $2.65 in nominal terms.

As for soybeans, there have been 9 Julys since 2006 where nominal prices were lower than the current average of $10.20.

Yet after adjusting for inflation, this is also the lowest since 2006, when the inflation-adjusted price was $9.74—or $6.15 in nominal terms.

Modest rebound… but still far from the peak

Despite a slight rebound in corn and soybean prices this week, they remain well below this year’s highs recorded in February, when U.S. crop insurance guarantees for the upcoming harvest season were set.

Still, the decline in prices since then is not exceptional—something that dampens enthusiasm for bullish investors. So far this month, December corn contracts are trading 10% below the February average, a smaller drop than in the previous two years.

November soybean contracts are down just 3% compared to February, even though larger declines were seen in four of the past seven years, including 2024.

Are supplies justifying the drop?

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects U.S. ending corn stocks for the 2025–2026 season to rise by 24% year-over-year.

This follows a projected 24% decline in 2024–2025, which ends on August 31.

A year ago, forecasts called for a 12% increase in 2024–2025—similar to the 18% forecast for 2020–2021.

Interestingly, inflation-adjusted corn prices in July 2020 and 2024 are very close to current levels, suggesting a logical relationship between supplies and prices.

But that argument weakens when considering actual volumes. The projected ending stocks for 2025–2026 stand at 1.66 billion bushels—21% and 37% lower, respectively, than the forecasts for 2024–2025 and 2020–2021 at the same point in the calendar.

Still, the market may be trading on the assumption of a final stock figure closer to 2 billion bushels, given the strong likelihood of improved yields—which supports the rationale for continued low prices.

Soybeans… potential support

The USDA estimates that U.S. soybean stocks for 2025–2026 will decline by 11% year-over-year—the first annual drop expected in July since 2020, when the figure was -32%.

In July 2019, the forecast was for a 24% drop. But the average inflation-adjusted soybean prices in July 2019 and 2020 were both above $11 per bushel, suggesting room for prices to rise this year—especially if August weather forecasts turn unfavorable.

Corn

As for trading, December corn futures settled down 0.8% at $4.21 per bushel.

Soybeans

November soybean futures rose 0.7% to $10.26 per bushel.

Wheat

September wheat futures closed down 1.3% at $5.33 per bushel.

Ethereum edged lower on Thursday amid profit-taking after the cryptocurrency surged to a five-month high on Wednesday, driven by a growing wave of publicly listed companies adding ETH to their treasuries.

Earlier this month, Minnesota-based SharpLink Gaming announced a $225 million Ethereum acquisition, according to a press release issued Tuesday. The company had pivoted from online gambling marketing to crypto treasury strategy in May after raising $425 million in funding and appointing Ethereum co-founder and Consensys CEO Joseph Lubin to its board.

This move made SharpLink the largest public holder of Ethereum, with a treasury reaching 280,000 ETH — equivalent to roughly $884 million at current prices. The firm’s stock (SBET) has surged over 1,000% since its shift to crypto, according to TradingView.

Similarly, BitMine Immersion Technologies last month announced the creation of its own ETH treasury. The Bitcoin mining firm raised $250 million in late June to build an Ethereum reserve, appointing Fundstrat’s Tom Lee as chairman.

Since then, BitMine has purchased over $500 million worth of Ethereum, and its shares (BMNR) have jumped more than 1,100% following its first ETH acquisition. Notably, Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund disclosed a 9.1% stake in the company on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Bit Digital, another Bitcoin miner, announced in June it would halt mining operations to focus on Ethereum-based treasury and staking strategies. Last week, the company fully converted its reserves into Ethereum, now holding 100,603 ETH — worth over $316 million. On Monday, it announced a $67.3 million stock sale to acquire more ETH.

“Ethereum is no longer just a speculative asset,” said Kevin Rasher, founder of crypto lending platform RAAC, in a note to Decrypt. “It’s now a yield-generating programmable financial asset that institutions see as a store of value. That’s a major factor supporting ETH’s price, as corporate treasuries reduce circulating supply and reflect long-term confidence.”

These developments reflect a broader trend of public companies leveraging crypto treasuries to boost stock performance, echoing Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin strategy.

For example, Canadian firm Cannabis Sativa rebranded as Dogecoin Cash after acquiring $3.5 million worth of DOGE. More recently, a group of investors revealed a $540,000 purchase of meme token Dogwifhat on Solana, announcing plans to go public via a reverse merger in an attempt to ride the wave of institutional crypto adoption.

At the time of writing, Ethereum was down 0.2% at $3,389.8 on CoinMarketCap, as of 21:13 GMT.

Oil prices climbed on Thursday amid escalating security tensions in the Middle East and following upbeat US economic data that boosted optimism over demand.

Oil fields in Iraq's Kurdistan region were subjected to ongoing drone attacks for a fourth consecutive day, leading to a reduction in the region's crude output by an estimated 140,000 to 150,000 barrels per day, according to Reuters.

Positive data on US retail sales and jobless claims further supported sentiment toward the American economy and local demand growth.

At settlement, Brent crude futures for September delivery rose by 1.5%, or $1, to $69.52 a barrel.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for August delivery increased by 1.75%, or $1.16, to close at $67.54 a barrel.

In a new research memo outlining potential scenarios if President Donald Trump were to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, analysts warned that regardless of how events unfold, “it would be chaotic.”

Tobias Marcus and Chutong Zhu of Wolfe Research wrote in a client note: “We expect, as most do, that the outcome would be sharply negative for markets, including broad-based selling in equities and an unwarranted rise in long-term yields.”

Wolfe Research predicted that the Supreme Court might ultimately have to decide whether Trump has the authority to remove Powell “for cause.”

The analysis came just hours after reports shook the perceived stability of Powell’s leadership at the central bank—reports that were quickly walked back.

CNBC had reported Wednesday morning, citing a senior White House official, that Trump had told a group of Republican lawmakers on Tuesday evening of his intention to “fire Powell soon.”

But during a press Q&A in the Oval Office, Trump swiftly denied his own official’s comments.

“We are not planning to do that,” Trump said, adding: “I never rule anything out… but I think it’s highly unlikely unless [Powell] is involved in fraud.”

Still, Trump is known for unpredictability and has a long history of firing officials shortly after publicly expressing support for them.

In Powell’s case, Trump has criticized him for months, accusing him of refusing to lower interest rates in line with White House demands.

Analysts call the idea ‘disastrous’

Roger Altman, founder of Evercore and former Deputy Treasury Secretary under President Bill Clinton, told CNBC’s Closing Bell: “There are a lot of bad ideas, but firing the Fed Chair—or trying to, because it’s unclear if it would succeed—is among the worst.”

Altman called the idea “horrifying,” highlighting the clear difference in economic performance between countries with truly independent central banks, like the United States, and those where monetary policy is government-controlled, such as Turkey and Argentina, which have seen double-digit inflation in recent years.

“I don’t believe Powell would resign if asked to,” Altman added, suggesting the matter would “end up in the courts.”

Potential chaos scenarios

Wolfe Research analysts agreed with Altman’s view, writing: “If Trump actually proceeds with firing Powell instead of just pressuring him to resign, Powell would likely sue to block the move.”

They asked: “The first question is, would Powell still be considered fired during the legal process?”

They noted that Trump had previously fired commissioners at independent agencies during his second term, and while some filed lawsuits to reclaim their positions, those efforts “failed.”

The memo added: “The exception with Powell is that he heads the agency he leads—unlike prior dismissals of commissioners who were not chairpersons, after Trump had already appointed a new chair.”

“In those cases, the new agency head could enforce dismissals. But at the Fed, there is no one with the authority to remove Powell.”

Wolfe Research outlined three possible scenarios if Trump goes through with the firing:

- Powell continues to function as Fed Chair while Trump seeks a court order to remove him.

- Powell voluntarily resigns and sues the government seeking reinstatement.

- Powell refuses to leave while Trump attempts to remove him via executive order.

The memo warned that the third scenario would be the most dramatic, referencing a recent incident in March when police were called to remove staffers from the US Institute of Peace after Elon Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency” accused them of trespassing.

“It goes without saying,” the note read, “that the image of Powell being escorted out of the Fed by police would be profoundly unsettling for markets.”

Will the Supreme Court intervene?

If the matter escalates to a legal case, it is likely to reach the Supreme Court.

Analysts noted that the Court recently signaled in an unrelated case that it views the Fed as distinct from other independent agencies in terms of the protections afforded to its leadership.

The majority opinion stated: “The Federal Reserve is a unique, quasi-private entity that falls within a historically distinct tradition beginning with the First and Second Banks of the United States.”

Wolfe Research wrote: “We believe Powell has a good chance of winning in court, but it’s not guaranteed.”

They added that the core issue isn’t just whether the Court will uphold the ‘for cause’ removal protection for the Fed Chair, but also whether it will restrict the President’s authority to define what constitutes ‘cause.’

They raised another potential scenario: that a lower court might issue an injunction preventing Trump from carrying out the dismissal, and that such an order could remain in effect while the case proceeds.

The memo concluded that this would be enough to allow Powell to complete his term as Fed Chair.