Corn and soybean prices continue to decline after US signals point to ample supplies

Corn futures extended their losses after the US Department of Agriculture unexpectedly raised its forecast for US ending stocks in the 2025-2026 marketing year, as stronger exports were offset by weaker demand from the ethanol sector. Soybean futures also continued to retreat after supply projections came in above expectations, accompanied by another reduction in US export forecasts.

Meanwhile, hard red winter wheat futures advanced after the USDA cut its forecast for the drought-stricken wheat crop by more than expected. The crop had already been projected to post its smallest harvest in 62 years.

The USDA's monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report contained few major surprises for corn, soybeans, or wheat. However, the broader picture of abundant near-term supplies kept prices near the lows reached during the sharp selloff seen over the past two weeks.

The department increased its estimate for US corn ending stocks in the 2025-2026 marketing year by 3 million bushels to 2.145 billion bushels, the highest level in seven years, defying market expectations for a slight reduction. It also raised its forecast for 2026-2027 ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 1.96 billion bushels.

At the same time, the USDA increased its forecast for 2025-2026 corn exports by 25 million bushels to a record 3.325 billion bushels, but lowered corn use for ethanol production by the same amount to 5.575 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the department left US ending stocks for the 2025-2026 season unchanged at 340 million bushels, contrary to market expectations for a modest decline. It also maintained its 2026-2027 ending stocks forecast at 310 million bushels.

The USDA also cut its forecast for US soybean exports in the 2025-2026 season for a second consecutive month, reducing estimates by 20 million bushels to 1.51 billion bushels, the lowest level in 13 years, while slightly raising its outlook for soybean crushing and processing.

Globally, the department left its 2026 soybean production forecasts unchanged at 50 million metric tons for Argentina and 180 million metric tons for Brazil.

However, it raised its forecast for Brazil's corn crop by 3 million metric tons compared with its May estimate and increased Argentina's crop by 2 million metric tons to 61 million metric tons.

Jeremy McCann, director of farmer relations at Farmers Keeper, said this month's report is typically less influential than the acreage report due on June 30. He noted that changes to both old- and new-crop stock estimates were relatively minor, shifting market focus entirely to the end-of-month acreage report.

The USDA is scheduled to update its estimates for corn and soybean planted acreage in its June 30 report, which is expected to be a key driver of price movements throughout the summer.

In a separate report, the department estimated total winter wheat production for the 2026-2027 season at 1.03 billion bushels, down 18 million bushels from its May forecast and more than 27% lower than the 2025-2026 crop, making it the smallest harvest since 1965.

Analysts had expected production of around 1.041 billion bushels.

The hard red winter wheat crop, which has been hit hardest by drought conditions, was estimated at 496.9 million bushels, down 18 million bushels from May and 38% below last year's level.

By midday trading, December corn futures were down 6 cents at $4.4075 per bushel, while November soybean futures fell 7 cents to $11.3150 per bushel. In contrast, July hard red winter wheat futures rose 3.5 cents to $6.34 per bushel.