Corn futures extended their losses after the US Department of Agriculture unexpectedly raised its forecast for US ending stocks in the 2025-2026 marketing year, as stronger exports were offset by weaker demand from the ethanol sector. Soybean futures also continued to retreat after supply projections came in above expectations, accompanied by another reduction in US export forecasts.

Meanwhile, hard red winter wheat futures advanced after the USDA cut its forecast for the drought-stricken wheat crop by more than expected. The crop had already been projected to post its smallest harvest in 62 years.

The USDA's monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report contained few major surprises for corn, soybeans, or wheat. However, the broader picture of abundant near-term supplies kept prices near the lows reached during the sharp selloff seen over the past two weeks.

The department increased its estimate for US corn ending stocks in the 2025-2026 marketing year by 3 million bushels to 2.145 billion bushels, the highest level in seven years, defying market expectations for a slight reduction. It also raised its forecast for 2026-2027 ending stocks by 3 million bushels to 1.96 billion bushels.

At the same time, the USDA increased its forecast for 2025-2026 corn exports by 25 million bushels to a record 3.325 billion bushels, but lowered corn use for ethanol production by the same amount to 5.575 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the department left US ending stocks for the 2025-2026 season unchanged at 340 million bushels, contrary to market expectations for a modest decline. It also maintained its 2026-2027 ending stocks forecast at 310 million bushels.

The USDA also cut its forecast for US soybean exports in the 2025-2026 season for a second consecutive month, reducing estimates by 20 million bushels to 1.51 billion bushels, the lowest level in 13 years, while slightly raising its outlook for soybean crushing and processing.

Globally, the department left its 2026 soybean production forecasts unchanged at 50 million metric tons for Argentina and 180 million metric tons for Brazil.

However, it raised its forecast for Brazil's corn crop by 3 million metric tons compared with its May estimate and increased Argentina's crop by 2 million metric tons to 61 million metric tons.

Jeremy McCann, director of farmer relations at Farmers Keeper, said this month's report is typically less influential than the acreage report due on June 30. He noted that changes to both old- and new-crop stock estimates were relatively minor, shifting market focus entirely to the end-of-month acreage report.

The USDA is scheduled to update its estimates for corn and soybean planted acreage in its June 30 report, which is expected to be a key driver of price movements throughout the summer.

In a separate report, the department estimated total winter wheat production for the 2026-2027 season at 1.03 billion bushels, down 18 million bushels from its May forecast and more than 27% lower than the 2025-2026 crop, making it the smallest harvest since 1965.

Analysts had expected production of around 1.041 billion bushels.

The hard red winter wheat crop, which has been hit hardest by drought conditions, was estimated at 496.9 million bushels, down 18 million bushels from May and 38% below last year's level.

By midday trading, December corn futures were down 6 cents at $4.4075 per bushel, while November soybean futures fell 7 cents to $11.3150 per bushel. In contrast, July hard red winter wheat futures rose 3.5 cents to $6.34 per bushel.

Oil prices declined on Thursday after US President Donald Trump canceled airstrikes that had been planned against Iran later in the day, citing ongoing discussions with Tehran.

During trading, US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.13% to $87.21 per barrel as of 1:35 p.m. Eastern Time, while Brent crude dropped 3.36% to $89.97 per barrel.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he had decided to cancel the planned strikes and air operations against Iran after discussions with the Islamic Republic reached the highest levels of Iranian leadership and after obtaining approvals from all relevant parties.

Earlier, Trump had said the United States would strike Iran "very hard" on Thursday evening, following a wave of airstrikes on Wednesday targeting Iranian surveillance capabilities, communications systems, and air defense sites.

The US president also threatened to take control of Kharg Island, Iran's largest oil export terminal, asserting that the United States would establish "complete control" over Iranian oil and gas markets, similar to what it had done in Venezuela.

Recent days have witnessed escalating military exchanges between Washington and Tehran after US forces launched attacks on targets inside Iran, prompting Tehran to respond with missile strikes against several Gulf countries.

Iranian state media reported that Tehran targeted US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, including Ali Al Salem Air Base, Ahmad Al Jaber Air Base, and Sheikh Isa Air Base. Bahrain, meanwhile, said its air defenses intercepted and destroyed the Iranian threats.

Iranian media also reported that Iran carried out missile and drone attacks against US vessels operating in the Strait of Hormuz, while Kuwait closed its airspace and intercepted projectiles on Thursday.

Despite the latest escalation, energy consultancy Rystad Energy said the oil market is now better equipped to absorb disruptions than during previous crises, citing higher US oil exports, weaker Chinese demand, and the availability of alternative export routes that reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the firm also warned that the chances of a rapid diplomatic breakthrough have diminished, leaving oil prices vulnerable to sharp swings as uncertainty over the future of the conflict persists.

SpaceX's highly anticipated initial public offering on Friday could mark a defining moment for global capital markets and may ultimately serve as a "referendum" on Elon Musk's leadership, according to market observers.

The company's targeted valuation of $1.75 trillion reflects a price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 100 times, compared with about 20 to 25 times for NVIDIA and around 10 times for Apple.

Nasdaq recently amended its listing rules to facilitate the inclusion of SpaceX and other companies planning mega IPOs into the Nasdaq-100 Index, while S&P Global declined to make exceptions that would allow the company early entry into the S&P 500 Index.

What voting rights will Elon Musk retain?

Investors are also being asked to accept exceptions related to the company's lofty valuation, as well as Musk's insistence on retaining an estimated 80% to 85% of SpaceX's voting rights, a governance structure that has often raised concerns among investors, even for companies with established profitability records.

Matt Calkins, chief executive of Appian, told CNBC that the IPO "represents a referendum on Elon Musk and how much confidence investors have in this entrepreneur."

"I think investors have tremendous confidence because he has accomplished so much, and they are betting on his ability to open entirely new markets," he said. "But it remains a very high-risk bet."

He added: "Personally, I have no desire to invest, nor would I even want to speculate on an IPO of this nature."

Calkins noted that markets remain in a very early stage marked by significant uncertainty and that many investments are currently driven more by conviction than by traditional financial fundamentals.

Ben Ritchie, head of equities at abrdn, wrote in a note on Thursday that the offering will test "how willing investors are to embrace a new model of public equity ownership based on elevated valuations, limited governance rights, and trust in a founder-led vision."

"That combination has worked before, but can it work at this scale?" he asked.

Could SpaceX shares reach $330?

Despite concerns over valuation, many investors remain optimistic about SpaceX's prospects in both the near and long term.

Analysts at New Street Research said in a note on Thursday that they expect the stock to reach $165 within 12 months of the IPO, implying a 22% gain and a valuation of approximately $2.3 trillion when factoring in the proposed acquisition of code-editing company Cursor.

"The opportunity within the space sector is enormous and diverse and will develop over more than a decade," the analysts wrote.

They added that their $2.3 trillion valuation assumes SpaceX captures roughly 75% of the addressable market based on their conservative growth estimates.

Under a more optimistic market-growth scenario, while assuming the company captures only 50% market share, they believe fair value could reach $330 per share.

James Dow, however, urged caution when assessing the company's long-term future.

"SpaceX's valuation depends on what the company will be doing 20 years from now," he told CNBC.

"But 20 years from now, Musk will be much older, and I don't know what role he will be playing at that point."

He added that SpaceX's value is "heavily tied to Musk himself, and I believe that is one of the company's biggest risks."

Retail investor orders exceed $100 billion

According to people familiar with the matter, retail investor demand for SpaceX shares has exceeded $100 billion as the potentially record-breaking IPO approaches its final stages.

The company is expected to allocate at least 20% of the offering to retail investors, according to sources who requested anonymity because the information remains confidential.

At a $75 billion offering size—the largest in history—such an allocation would still leave most retail demand unmet, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Demand has climbed from more than $70 billion, a figure Bloomberg reported earlier on Thursday, as orders continued to increase throughout the marketing period.

The more than $100 billion figure includes orders from retail investors both inside and outside the United States.

Major institutional investors, including sovereign wealth funds, have reportedly secured allocations exceeding $1 billion each.

Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund and Kuwait's Kuwait Investment Authority submitted large orders, while the Qatar Investment Authority is also expected to make a significant commitment, according to previous reports.

Market observers believe that if many Elon Musk supporters fail to receive sufficient allocations—or receive no shares at all—demand for the stock could surge once trading begins.

Musk has built a strong retail-investor following through his leadership of Tesla, whose shares are estimated to be about 40% owned by individual investors, according to BNP Paribas analyst James Picariello.

In 2020, Musk wrote on X: "I'm a big fan of small retail investors."

Referring to a potential IPO of Starlink, he added at the time: "I'll make sure they get top priority, and you can hold me to that."

Sources said the rocket, satellite, and artificial intelligence company has received orders from roughly 1,000 institutional investors.

The terms of the offering are unlikely to change, including the $135 share price and the planned issuance of 555.6 million shares.

SpaceX is expected to raise approximately $75 billion in a deal that values the company at around $1.8 trillion.

The company is also expected to allocate less than 10% of the shares to international investors, while the allocation reserved for Japan was reportedly increased this month to $2.5 billion from $2 billion.

Discussions remain ongoing, and some details of the offering—including the retail allocation percentage—could still change.

Banks are expected to stop accepting institutional orders before final pricing on Thursday, with trading scheduled to begin on Friday.

The deal is expected to become the largest IPO in history, surpassing the 2019 listing of Saudi Aramco, which raised $29.4 billion.

The offering could also pave the way for other giant AI-related IPOs. OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO on Monday, while Anthropic took a similar step last week.

According to Bloomberg calculations, the three companies could collectively add as much as $3.6 trillion in market value to US stock exchanges.

The IPO is being led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase, alongside 18 additional banks.

The company, formally known as Space Exploration Technologies, is expected to begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol "SPCX."

While markets have focused on the recent sharp decline in gold prices, the broader precious metals sector has also come under heavy selling pressure, with platinum group metals among the hardest hit, according to a report from Bank of America.

Both platinum and palladium recently fell to their lowest levels of the year as pressure from slowing global economic growth and geopolitical tensions continued to weigh on the sector.

Economic slowdown and Middle East tensions weigh on platinum group metals

The bank's commodity analysts said the rally in platinum group metals has lost momentum since late January, largely due to movements in gold and ongoing economic headwinds related to the Middle East conflict, which continue to negatively affect industrial demand for these metals.

Despite the recent weakness, the bank maintained its long-term bullish outlook for the sector, noting that it remains optimistic about gold heading into the fourth quarter. Bank of America believes any renewed rally in gold could draw investors back into platinum group metals and support prices.

Spot platinum fell to around $1,711 per ounce, down more than 2% during the session, while palladium traded near $1,203 per ounce, up roughly 0.5%.

Since the sharp selloff on Friday, platinum has lost more than 9% of its value, while palladium has fallen more than 6%.

Ambitious price targets despite weak industrial and jewelry demand

Despite current pressures, Bank of America still expects platinum to average around $3,000 per ounce between the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027.

The bank also forecasts palladium to average around $2,200 per ounce during the final three months of the year.

Platinum group metals delivered strong gains in 2025 as escalating global trade tensions and threats of tariffs on precious metals caused significant disruptions in physical market liquidity.

However, analysts noted that most of those concerns faded after tariff threats failed to materialize on a broad scale.

According to the report, the absence of tariffs led to more than 200,000 ounces of platinum leaving NYMEX warehouses, equivalent to roughly half of the inflows recorded during the second half of 2025.

Palladium experienced outflows in late January before sentiment reversed after the US Department of Commerce imposed final anti-dumping duties of 133% and countervailing duties of 109% on Russian palladium.

Structural shifts in demand

The bank also highlighted structural changes in demand for platinum group metals.

Platinum is expected to record a modest supply deficit this year, while palladium is projected to remain in a slight surplus.

Analysts pointed to China's rapid shift toward electric vehicles as a key source of market volatility, given the reduced demand for internal combustion engine vehicles, which rely heavily on platinum group metals in catalytic converters.

Electric vehicles are expected to account for about 40% of China's light-vehicle production this year, surpassing traditional combustion-engine vehicles for the first time. Conventional vehicles are projected to represent 36% of production, while hybrid vehicles account for the remaining 24%.

Production of internal combustion engine vehicles in China has already fallen to around 14 million units in 2025, compared with 21 million units in 2020.

By contrast, the transition toward electric vehicles remains slower in Europe and the United States, particularly after Washington rolled back some of its earlier electrification initiatives.

Weak jewelry demand in China

Demand for platinum jewelry has also slowed, particularly in China, where elevated inventories accumulated during the manufacturing boom of mid-2025 continue to weigh on the market.

Although some of those inventories have been recycled, retailers still hold large stockpiles amid weak consumer demand, increasing the risk of a significant contraction in Chinese jewelry manufacturing volumes this year.

Energy costs threaten South African production

Despite uncertainty surrounding global demand, Bank of America believes supply-side risks could become increasingly important in the coming period.

The bank noted that persistent Middle East tensions, higher energy prices, and inflationary pressures could negatively affect production, particularly in South Africa, one of the world's largest producers of platinum group metals.

South Africa depends heavily on imported oil and continues to face constraints in domestic refining capacity, making its mining sector highly sensitive to rising fuel costs.

Diesel remains widely used in mining operations, transportation networks, and backup power generation, especially amid the country's ongoing electricity shortages.

Diesel prices have surged since the conflict began, while state-owned utility Eskom increased electricity tariffs by 8.76% effective April 2026, significantly raising mining costs.

In this context, Sibanye-Stillwater reported a 13% year-over-year increase in unit operating costs during the first quarter, citing ongoing inflationary pressures, including higher labor and energy expenses.

During Thursday's trading session, spot palladium rose 1.5% to $1,264 per ounce as of 16:00 GMT.