Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end copper price forecast by more than 10%, now expecting copper to reach $13,735 per ton compared to its previous estimate of $12,465 per ton, citing lower mine production expectations and tighter market conditions outside the United States.

The bank said it reduced its forecast for global mine supply in 2026 by 350,000 tons following production disruptions at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It added that neither operation is expected to return to full production capacity before 2028.

Larger global market deficit

Stronger-than-expected US copper imports also prompted the bank to raise its estimate for the copper market deficit outside the United States to 640,000 tons, up from a previous forecast of just 60,000 tons.

Goldman Sachs expects the market to remain supported by structural demand linked to the energy transition, grid expansion, and clean energy investments, despite ongoing risks from potential US tariff policies.

In a research note, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “US copper imports exceeded expectations during the first half of 2026, and we expect imports to accelerate again next month, supported by currently available arbitrage opportunities.”

They added that the bank’s base-case scenario assumes the United States will continue postponing tariffs on refined copper.

Citi is even more bullish

Meanwhile, Citi also raised its copper price outlook, forecasting copper to reach $14,500 per ton this month and $15,000 per ton within the next year.

Citi analysts said: “Ongoing concerns about potential US tariffs on refined copper could continue supporting market sentiment at least until the trade policy review at the end of June.”

The bank also noted that growth in mine supply and recycled copper production has been weaker than expected, while demand related to artificial intelligence and energy transition projects remains resilient.

Prices move higher

Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.4% to $13,827.50 per ton.

Meanwhile, copper futures traded on the US Comex exchange climbed 2.6% to $6.55 per pound, widening the premium over London prices.

Companies that could benefit from higher copper prices

Among the companies that may benefit from a sustained rise in copper prices are:

* Freeport-McMoRan

* Southern Copper

* Ero Copper

* Taseko Mines

* Teck Resources

* Hudbay Minerals

* BHP

* Rio Tinto

* Vale

* Anglo American

* Glencore

The upward revisions from major investment banks reflect growing confidence that the copper market is heading into a period of relatively tight supply at a time when global demand is accelerating, driven by data centers, artificial intelligence, renewable energy projects, and electrical infrastructure investments.

Bitcoin remains one of the most controversial assets in financial markets, with passionate supporters and equally vocal critics, while continuing to deliver a highly volatile investment journey.

The world's largest cryptocurrency is currently trading about 41% below the all-time high it reached last October. While the past eight months have been disappointing for bullish investors, the current bear market is not new for Bitcoin, and history may offer some clues about what could happen next.

Why is Bitcoin struggling?

It is difficult to pinpoint the exact reasons behind Bitcoin's decline since late last year. As a decentralized digital asset, Bitcoin has no executive management team and does not release quarterly earnings reports.

The author believes several factors may have contributed to the weak performance, particularly given that Bitcoin has fallen 41% while the S&P 500 has gained roughly 13% over the same period.

Among the key factors:

* Concerns surrounding quantum computing, which could pose a future threat to Bitcoin's security. This is a risk that the Bitcoin community is well aware of.

* Selling pressure caused by investors liquidating positions following tariff decisions announced by US President Donald Trump, along with profit-taking by long-term holders.

* Persistent inflationary pressures driven by higher energy prices due to geopolitical tensions, increasing the likelihood that interest rates remain elevated for longer.

* The rapid growth of the artificial intelligence sector, which is attracting a significant share of investment capital that might otherwise have flowed into Bitcoin.

Long-term optimism remains intact

Despite its rollercoaster-like volatility, Bitcoin has rewarded patient investors over the long term.

Over the past decade, the cryptocurrency has gained more than 13,700%.

There is one key fact that Bitcoin supporters continue to emphasize: Bitcoin has repeatedly recovered and gone on to set new all-time highs.

The cryptocurrency typically follows a roughly four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin halving events, which reduce the supply of newly created coins.

The most recent halving took place in April 2024, and the market is now approximately halfway through the current cycle. During the previous three cycles, Bitcoin experienced similar declines at this stage.

What happened during the previous cycle?

Bitcoin endured one of its worst periods in 2022.

Between November 2021 and November 2022, the cryptocurrency plunged 76% from peak to trough, leading many observers to declare Bitcoin dead.

What followed, however, was remarkable:

Bitcoin surged 154% in 2023.

It then jumped another 119% in 2024.

This supports the view held by many investors that sharp declines are a normal part of Bitcoin's long-term cycle.

Why could history repeat itself?

According to the analysis, Bitcoin's core fundamentals remain unchanged:

* The network has never been successfully hacked.

* Mining power (hash rate) remains near record highs.

* The maximum supply cap of 21 million coins remains fixed.

* Innovation and development across the Bitcoin ecosystem continue.

At the same time, Bitcoin remains a global asset that is influenced by broader macroeconomic forces, including:

* Monetary and fiscal policies.

* Capital flows between countries and markets.

* The attractiveness of competing assets such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities.

As a result, significant volatility is likely to remain a feature of the market, keeping some investors on the sidelines.

Conclusion

Analysts believe history shows that Bitcoin has repeatedly gone through severe downturns before returning to set new record highs.

Despite the current challenges, they argue that Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals remain strong and that the next decade could bring substantial gains if historical patterns continue to repeat.

However, this remains an investment outlook rather than a guarantee of future performance, as cryptocurrencies continue to be among the most volatile and highest-risk assets in financial markets.

Silver prices fell in European trading on Monday, extending losses for a second consecutive session under pressure from a stronger US dollar and rising global oil prices, as military tensions between the United States and Iran intensified once again.

The latest round of military attacks comes amid ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran aimed at ending the three-month conflict, with US President Donald Trump seeking stricter conditions related to Iran’s nuclear program.

Price Overview

• Silver prices today: Silver fell 1.7% to $74.00 per ounce, down from the opening level of $75.29, after reaching an intraday high of $76.30.

• At Friday’s settlement, silver lost 0.5%, marking its third decline in the last four sessions due to weaker demand amid rising US Treasury yields.

US dollar

The dollar index rose 0.15% on Monday as part of a recovery from a two-week low, reflecting renewed strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The advance comes amid heightened market caution and reduced risk appetite after the United States and Iran exchanged a new round of military strikes while continuing intensive negotiations aimed at ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy trade routes.

Global oil prices

Oil prices jumped more than 3% on Monday, rebounding from five-week lows as military tensions escalated in the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel expanded its offensive in Lebanon, reducing hopes for a ceasefire across the Middle East.

Latest developments in the Iranian war

• The United States announced strikes on Iranian military sites, and Tehran responded with an attack on an air base.

• The US military said it destroyed Iranian air defense systems, a ground control station, and two drones.

• Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced that it had retaliated by launching an attack on a US air base.

• Reports indicated that Kuwaiti air defenses intercepted missiles and drone attacks.

• The United States and Iran remain without an agreement to end the war after Trump stated that he is not in a hurry to finalize a deal.

• The US president returned the proposed agreement draft with Iran to include “stricter” conditions related to the nuclear file, extending negotiations for several additional days.

US interest rates

• According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market pricing for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December increased from 47% to 53%.

• Markets continue to price a 99% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged at the June meeting, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike stands at 1%.

• To reassess those expectations, investors are closely monitoring upcoming key US economic data releases, in addition to comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Oil prices climbed more than 3% on Monday after the United States and Iran exchanged military strikes, while Israel ordered its forces to push deeper into Lebanon as part of its confrontation with the Iran-backed Hezbollah group.

Brent crude futures rose by $2.93, or 3.2%, to $94.05 per barrel.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures also gained $3.36, or 3.9%, to $90.72 per barrel.

Despite Monday’s gains, both benchmarks posted steep losses in May, with Brent falling around 19% and US crude declining approximately 17%.

Hopes for a US-Iran agreement fade

The rally came as renewed tensions in the Middle East reduced expectations of an imminent announcement regarding an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran.

Washington hosted peace talks between Israel and Lebanon on Friday, but subsequent military developments increased uncertainty surrounding the negotiations.

The United States said on Sunday that it had carried out “defensive strikes,” while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced on Monday that its Aerospace Force had targeted an air base used in the US attacks.

US President Donald Trump said on Friday that he would soon decide whether to approve the proposed extension of the ceasefire agreement originally announced in early April.

Lebanon and Hezbollah remain central to any agreement

The report noted that Israel will be a key party to any potential agreement, while Iran has repeatedly stressed that Hezbollah must be included in any future political or security arrangements.

A US official said Washington had proposed a plan for a “gradual de-escalation” across the region.

Growing concerns over the Strait of Hormuz

Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, said concerns are increasing over the presence of naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil and gas shipping routes.

“Even if an agreement is reached, it will not result in a large and immediate increase in oil supplies,” Sycamore said.

An Axios reporter wrote on X on Friday that Iran had planted additional naval mines in the strait during the previous week.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said delays in the diplomatic process stem from a lack of trust, conflicting US positions, and continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

Weak Chinese economy fails to cap oil gains

Supply concerns overshadowed economic data released from China over the weekend, which showed slowing manufacturing activity and reinforced fears that the world's second-largest economy is losing momentum.

At the same time, a Reuters survey indicated that Saudi Arabia may lower its official selling prices for oil bound for Asia in July for the second consecutive month.

Goldman Sachs warns of demand risks

Goldman Sachs said weak oil demand in China and Europe represents a major risk to its oil price outlook for the fourth quarter.

The bank expects Brent crude to average around $90 per barrel, while forecasting US crude at approximately $83 per barrel.

However, Goldman Sachs noted that any additional supply disruptions from the Middle East could push prices above those forecasts.