Copper prices rose on Friday as the US dollar weakened and hopes grew for stronger demand in China, ahead of the US jobs report later in the session which may provide further clarity on the path of US interest rates.

The three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange gained 0.5% to $9,947 per metric ton in official trading. The contract had touched its highest level in five months at $10,038 on Wednesday, driven by mounting expectations of a US rate cut later this month.

Lower interest rates improve the outlook for growth-linked metals, while the decline in the US currency—last down 0.3%—makes dollar-priced metals more attractive to holders of other currencies.

Highlighting the continued tightness in copper concentrate supplies that is pressuring Asian smelters, JX Advanced Metals, one of Japan’s largest copper smelters, said it may cut production by tens of thousands of tons in the fiscal year ending March.

In the US, inventories in Comex-owned warehouses—which are already at their highest in 22 years—continued to rise this week, supported by the ongoing premium of Comex copper contracts over the London Metal Exchange benchmark, recently ranging between 1% and 2%.

That premium had narrowed at the end of July after Washington excluded refined copper from import tariffs on certain copper products, but the reduction was not sufficient to trigger stock drawdowns from the US, according to one trader.

Meanwhile, inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses remained broadly steady after rising 74% since late June, keeping the cash discount to the three-month contract at $61 per ton.

Analysts at Macquarie said in a note: “Even with the copper market still distorted by US inventory builds, the weaker spreads in London suggest oversupply outside China, but any weakness in prices appears to be met with strong Chinese buying.”

The Yangshan copper premium—reflecting demand for imported copper into China—held steady on Friday at its highest level in three months at $57 per ton.

Other Metals Prices

Aluminum rose 0.8% to $2,612 per ton.

Zinc climbed 0.7% to $2,864.5 per ton.

Lead gained 0.5% to $1,995 per ton.

Tin rose 0.3% to $34,675 per ton.

Nickel advanced 0.3% to $15,275 per ton.

Oil extended its decline for a third straight session on Friday, heading for its first weekly loss in three weeks, amid growing expectations of increased supply and a surprise build in US crude inventories that added to demand concerns.

Reuters reported on Wednesday that eight members of the OPEC+ alliance will discuss the possibility of raising output further at Sunday’s meeting. US crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels last week, while analysts had expected a draw.

Brent crude futures fell 35 cents, or 0.5%, to $66.64 a barrel by 08:10 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate dropped 33 cents, or 0.5%, to $63.15 a barrel.

John Evans of oil brokerage PVM said: “The stories and indicators are building for a future where supply will not be the problem.”

On a weekly basis, Brent is down 2.2%, while WTI has fallen 1.3%.

Expectations are rising that OPEC and its allies, including Russia — known collectively as OPEC+ — will push more barrels into the market to reclaim market share during Sunday’s meeting.

Any fresh increase would mean that OPEC+, which supplies nearly half of the world’s oil, begins to unwind a second layer of production cuts totaling about 1.65 million barrels per day, or 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule.

Analysts at BMI said in a report that refining sector strength has been a key support for prices, but margins are likely to face pressure in the coming months as global demand growth slows and refinery maintenance rises.

Still, supply risks continue to underpin the market. A White House official said President Donald Trump told European leaders on Thursday that Europe must halt purchases of Russian oil.

Any reduction in Russian crude exports or further disruptions to supply could push global oil prices higher.

Gold prices rose in the European market on Friday, resuming gains that had paused yesterday amid profit-taking and correction moves, approaching once again their all-time highs and heading for a third consecutive weekly gain, supported by strong demand for the metal as the best alternative investment.

A series of weak data on the US labor market boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting to near full pricing.

To confirm this pricing, global financial markets await later today the release of the monthly US jobs report, which the Fed relies on heavily in determining the course of US monetary policy.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: gold rose by 0.45% to $3,561.15, from an opening level of $3,545.88, recording a low at $3,540.22.

• On Thursday, prices fell by 0.4%, the first loss in eight days, amid profit-taking after hitting an all-time high of $3,578.61 per ounce on Wednesday.

Weekly Performance

Over the course of this week—ending officially at today’s settlement—gold prices are up about 3.3%, heading for a third straight weekly gain and the biggest weekly rise since June.

These weekly gains are attributed to strong safe-haven demand amid rising concerns about global debt levels and renewed tensions over Trump’s tariffs.

US Dollar

The dollar index fell by 0.25% on Friday, reflecting the decline of the greenback against a basket of global currencies, which in turn supported higher gold and other dollar-denominated commodities.

US Interest Rates

• On Wednesday and Thursday, the US released a series of economic data showing further weakness in the labor market.

• Following this, CME FedWatch data showed pricing for a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in September jumped from 92% to 99%, while the probability of no change dropped from 8% to 1%.

• October rate-cut probabilities also rose, with a 25 basis point reduction priced at 99%, versus just 1% for no change.

• Several Fed officials reiterated that labor market concerns continue to support the case for rate cuts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated he believes the central bank should lower rates at its upcoming meeting.

US Jobs Report

To further confirm the above pricing, markets are awaiting the US monthly jobs report later today, which will include key labor data such as non-farm payroll additions for August, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings.

At 12:30 GMT, non-farm payroll data is expected to show the US economy added 75,000 jobs in August, compared to 73,000 in July, with unemployment rising to 4.3% from 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to hold steady at a 0.3% increase.

Outlook for Gold

• Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said the short-term direction for gold depends on US jobs data and its impact on rate-cut expectations, bond yields, and the dollar. He noted that weaker-than-expected jobs figures could push prices toward $3,650, while the $3,450–$3,500 range remains a key support zone.

• Hansen added that the mix of lower funding costs, concerns about Fed independence, geopolitical risks, a steepening yield curve, and a weaker dollar all point toward further gains in precious metals.

SPDR Fund

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, fell yesterday by 2.29 metric tons, marking a second consecutive daily decline, bringing the total down to 981.97 metric tons.

The euro rose in the European market on Friday against a basket of global currencies, moving into positive territory versus the US dollar, supported by the weaker performance of the greenback in the foreign exchange market, ahead of the release of US monthly jobs data.

Consumer price data released this week highlighted persistent inflationary pressures on European Central Bank policymakers, which led to a decline in expectations for an ECB rate cut in September.

Price Overview

• Euro exchange rate today: the euro rose against the dollar by 0.2% to $1.1675, from the opening level of $1.1649, with a low at $1.1643.

• The euro ended Thursday’s session down 0.1% versus the dollar, as concerns over financial stability in Europe receded.

European Interest Rates

• Data released this week showed an unexpected increase in core inflation in the euro area during August, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures on the ECB.

• Following this data, pricing of a 25 basis point ECB rate cut in September fell from 30% to 10%.

• Five sources told Reuters that the ECB is likely to keep rates unchanged next month, though discussions about further cuts may resume in the autumn if the eurozone economy weakens.

US Dollar

The dollar index fell by about 0.2% on Friday, reflecting declines in the US currency against a basket of global peers, as labor market data from the US reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.

According to the CME FedWatch tool: probabilities of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in September are currently steady at 99%, while the probability of no change is at 1%.

To reassess those expectations, investors await the US monthly jobs report later today, which the Federal Reserve relies on heavily in evaluating the state of the labor market and setting appropriate monetary policy for the world’s largest economy.

Euro Outlook

At Economies.com, we expect that if US jobs data come in below market forecasts, expectations of a September Fed rate cut will be confirmed, supporting further gains in the euro against the US dollar.