Copper prices rose on Friday, supported by hopes that the United States and Iran could sign a peace agreement over the weekend, easing concerns about rising inflation and slowing global economic growth.

The benchmark three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange gained 1.2% to $13,650 per metric ton during official trading, ending a two-day decline that had pushed the metal to its lowest level in three weeks.

Copper prices had fallen on Thursday amid one of the sharpest escalations between the United States and Iran since the two sides agreed to a ceasefire in April.

A Western source told Reuters that a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran aimed at ending the Gulf conflict could be signed as early as Sunday.

"I've lost count of how many times we've heard about peace agreements, but the market is at least trying to build some optimism around this deal, and hopefully this time will be different," said Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen.

He added: "The market is betting that we could see an end to inflation concerns—not necessarily a collapse in inflation, but at least a halt to further acceleration."

The most actively traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.2% to 104,660 yuan ($15,474) per ton, while US copper futures on COMEX advanced 1.8% to $6.39 per pound.

The gains came as other markets also reacted to the news, with oil prices declining and global equities moving higher.

Aluminum on the London Metal Exchange climbed 0.8% to $3,531 per ton, amid expectations that any peace agreement could ease pressure on Gulf aluminum smelters affected by recent disruptions.

The premium for spot copper over three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange narrowed to $6.05 per ton from $104.56 at the beginning of the month, when concerns over supply shortages were at their peak.

"The sharp decline in this premium reflects the fading of geopolitical risk premiums and speculative long positions as the market reassesses the scale and duration of supply disruptions," said Rubankar R.M., Head of Market Research and Data Intelligence at AL Circle.

Among other base metals, zinc on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.8% to $3,560 per ton, lead gained 0.5% to $1,955 per ton, nickel added 0.7% to $17,820 per ton, and tin advanced 1.1% to $53,450 per ton.

Bitcoin returned to positive territory on Friday as investor risk appetite improved following signs that tensions between the United States and Iran could be easing.

The rebound came after traders reacted to indications that Washington and Tehran may be moving toward de-escalation, following President Donald Trump's decision to cancel planned strikes against Iran and his statement that an agreement could be reached soon.

Oil prices retreated after the developments, with Brent crude falling toward the mid-$80-per-barrel range, easing concerns that elevated energy prices could prolong inflationary pressures.

This is particularly important for the cryptocurrency market because inflation driven by higher oil prices could encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance. Reduced geopolitical tensions also tend to ease pressure on higher-risk assets, including Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies advance

Bitcoin was trading at $63,500 as of 13:34 GMT, up 1.2%, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Ethereum traded near $1,671, gaining about 0.97% over the past 24 hours while holding support around the $1,650 level despite a weak week for spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds.

BNB was trading near $605, while Solana hovered around $66.69 after posting daily gains of 1.95%. XRP also climbed to approximately $1.14, up 3% on the day.

Dogecoin rose to around $0.086, while Hyperliquid advanced to roughly $59.17 and ranked among the strongest-performing major cryptocurrencies, despite remaining weaker on a weekly basis.

By contrast, TRON was the weakest performer among the major cryptocurrencies mentioned, trading near $0.312, down 2.86% over the past 24 hours and 3.79% over the last seven days.

The broad-based rebound reflects a reduction in risk-off positioning among traders. However, the move remains in its early stages and has yet to recover the losses suffered during June's market downturn.

ETF outflows continue to weigh on sentiment

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of $19.03 million on June 11, according to data from SoSoValue, marking a fifth consecutive day of withdrawals and highlighting continued caution among institutional investors.

Spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded net outflows of $15.89 million on the same day, extending their streak of withdrawals to three consecutive sessions.

The cryptocurrency market selloff in June was driven by a combination of factors, including the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, escalating tensions with Iran, continued ETF outflows, and a wave of liquidations in leveraged positions.

Strong investor interest in the upcoming SpaceX IPO also absorbed part of the speculative liquidity in financial markets. While it was not the sole reason behind the decline, it contributed to weakening demand across the cryptocurrency sector.

As a result, Bitcoin's current recovery continues to face pressure from ongoing ETF outflows. If positive fund flows return, the rebound could gain stronger momentum. However, if withdrawals persist, the rally may struggle to break through the next major resistance levels.

Oil prices fell more than 3% on Friday, hitting their lowest levels in nearly two months after US President Donald Trump canceled planned new strikes against Iran, easing fears of a broader escalation following the exchange of attacks earlier this week.

Brent crude futures dropped $3.13, or 3.46%, to $87.25 a barrel by 11:11 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell $3.14, or 3.58%, to $84.57 a barrel. Both benchmarks touched their lowest levels since April 17.

A Western source told Reuters that a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran aimed at ending the Gulf conflict could be signed as early as Sunday, with Geneva emerging as the most likely venue for the signing ceremony.

Trump backed away from his threats of further military action on Thursday, while Iran's Mehr News Agency reported that final negotiations over the memorandum of understanding would focus on nuclear and economic issues, with Iran's missile program excluded from the talks.

Iran's IRNA news agency also reported that nuclear negotiations would take place over a 60-day period following the signing of the memorandum.

"Headlines are driving the market once again, with growing confidence in a deal and the reopening of the strait," said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates.

He added that global and regional oil inventories remain low and could continue to decline even if an agreement is reached, as it would take time for oil flows to fully normalize.

Iran announced on Thursday that it was closing the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping activity had already been limited, warning that any vessel attempting to transit the waterway would be targeted.

The strait normally handles around one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.

However, the US military said on social media that commercial vessels continue to transit through the waterway.

Analysts at ING said in a note on Friday that they believe the market could reach a "tipping point" by late July if oil flows do not resume before then, as low inventories and strong seasonal demand could push prices toward $120-$130 per barrel.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs lowered its average Brent crude price forecast for 2027 to $80 per barrel, citing stronger supply growth and weaker demand. However, the bank expects prices to remain above their 2025 average due to inventory rebuilding and a geopolitical risk premium linked to supply concerns.

On Thursday, OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 970,000 barrels per day from a previous estimate of 1.17 million barrels per day, marking the second consecutive downward revision.

At the same time, the group said oil consumption is expected to accelerate later on, raising its 2027 demand growth forecast to 1.73 million barrels per day, up 190,000 barrels per day from its previous projection.

Gold prices rose in European trading on Friday, extending their recovery for a second consecutive session from the lowest levels of 2026. The metal continued to benefit from bargain buying at lower levels, while a weaker US dollar and falling oil prices provided additional support after President Donald Trump announced that Washington and Tehran were moving closer to signing a peace agreement that could bring an end to the military conflict in the Middle East.

Lower oil prices are helping to ease concerns about accelerating inflation, potentially giving major central banks more room to keep interest rates unchanged in the near term while increasing expectations for rate cuts over the longer term.

The Price

• Gold prices today: Gold rose 0.8% to $4,246.39 per ounce from an opening level of $4,212.31, after touching an intraday low of $4,170.33.

• At Thursday's settlement, gold gained 3.45% after earlier falling to $4,023.86 per ounce, its lowest level since November 2025.

• In addition to bargain buying, gold rallied sharply after President Donald Trump announced the suspension of planned airstrikes against Iran.

US dollar

The US Dollar Index fell around 0.1% on Friday, extending losses for a second straight session and moving further away from two-month highs, reflecting continued weakness in the US currency against a basket of major and minor peers.

As a weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated bullion more attractive to holders of other currencies, the decline has provided additional support for gold prices.

Beyond profit-taking after the dollar's recent rally to two-month highs, the greenback has also come under pressure as hopes grow for a final agreement that could end the conflict in the Middle East.

Global oil prices

Oil prices fell around 3% on Friday, deepening losses for a second consecutive day and hitting their lowest levels in two months amid renewed hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could fully reopen to oil tanker traffic, allowing supplies to flow more freely into global markets.

Developments in the Iran conflict

• President Donald Trump unexpectedly announced a halt to planned military airstrikes against targets inside Iran, saying a preliminary agreement had been approved by senior leaders in Tehran.

• Trump stated that the final points of the peace agreement had been approved in principle by all parties involved.

• Countries participating in the framework reportedly include the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Egypt.

• Reports indicated that discussions regarding Iran had been elevated to the highest levels of Iranian leadership and had received preliminary approval.

• The naval blockade will remain in place until the agreement is finalized, with the time and location of the signing ceremony to be announced later.

• Iran said no final decision has been made regarding the agreement that Trump hopes to sign soon, as the relevant authorities continue reviewing its details.

• Trump maintained that the war with Iran has ended and said the agreement could be signed in Europe over the weekend in the presence of the Vice President.

• The G7 expects a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran to be signed in Geneva on Sunday.

US interest rates

• Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged throughout 2026 and postpone any rate cuts until 2027, citing stronger economic activity and continued job growth.

• With oil prices falling, CME Group's FedWatch Tool now shows the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December declining from 67% to 55%.

• Markets have also reduced the probability of rates remaining unchanged in June from 98% to 95%, while the odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut have increased from 2% to 5%.

Gold outlook

Edward Meir, analyst at Marex, said gold prices are being driven almost entirely by geopolitical developments, and any further positive news regarding US-Iran peace talks would support the continuation of the current recovery.

Meir added that markets will closely watch for any signal that the Federal Reserve may consider raising interest rates. If policymakers begin to hint in that direction, he believes gold could fall below the $4,000 level.

SPDR Gold Trust

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, were unchanged on Thursday, leaving total holdings at 1,013.64 metric tons, the lowest level since October 9, 2025.