Copper prices jumped toward record levels on Monday, as supply concerns intensified following a strike at a Chilean mine, alongside expectations of market deficits and declining inventories in warehouses approved by the London Metal Exchange.

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 2.8% to $12,823 per metric ton by 10:42 GMT, after touching an intraday high of $12,905.5 per ton earlier in the session. The metal, widely used in the energy and construction sectors, had reached a record level of $12,960 per ton last week.

Traders said the strike at the Mantoverde copper-gold mine, operated by Capstone Copper in northern Chile, reinforced the narrative of tightening supply in the market.

Mantoverde is expected to produce between 29,000 and 32,000 metric tons of copper. While this represents only a small share of global mined copper output, estimated at around 24 million tons this year, it nonetheless strengthens expectations of a supply shortfall.

Analysts at UBS said in a note: “We expect copper demand to grow by around 3% in 2026, versus growth in refined copper supply of less than 1%, resulting in a deficit of between 300,000 and 400,000 tons, rising to around 500,000 tons in 2027.”

Copper prices were also supported by falling inventories at the London Metal Exchange, which declined to 142,550 tons, down 55% since late August.

A large portion of the copper leaving the LME system has been shipped to the United States, where prices also remain elevated, as tariffs on copper are under review, despite the metal being granted an exemption from import duties that came into force on August 1.

In related markets, aluminum earlier touched $3,069 per ton, its highest level since April 2022, amid concerns over potential supply shortages, partly linked to China’s production cap of 45 million tons.

Gregory Wietbicker, president of Wittsend Commodity Advisors, said: “For the past 20 years, prices on the London Metal Exchange have largely been set based on capital costs in China. Now the market has to start thinking about capital spending in places like Indonesia, Finland, or India.”

Aluminum rose 1.5% to $3,060 per ton, zinc gained 1.4% to $3,171, lead edged up 0.3% to $2,012, nickel increased 0.4% to $16,885, while tin surged 3.7% to $41,925 per ton.

Bitcoin climbed to its highest level in three weeks, breaking through a widely watched technical level, as digital assets began to catch up with gains in equities and precious metals.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency rose as much as 2.3% on Monday, trading just below $93,000 by 6:34 a.m. New York time. Ether also posted modest gains. Bitcoin’s advance came alongside rallies in gold, silver, and equities following the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Bitcoin moved above its 50-day moving average for the first time since the crypto market selloff began in early October, one of several signals suggesting prices are stabilizing on firmer footing. The token is up about 6% so far this year.

Political uncertainty sparked by Maduro’s arrest by US forces late last week did little to dampen investor appetite for higher-risk assets such as technology stocks, while helping drive further gains in gold and silver. US equity futures rose on Monday, led by technology shares.

At times, Bitcoin has been viewed as a safe haven during periods of turmoil, while in other phases it has traded in line with equities and risk assets. The cryptocurrency fell 24% in the fourth quarter, sharply diverging from the trajectory of gold and silver prices.

Sean McNulty, head of derivatives trading for Asia-Pacific at FalconX, said the latest gains were driven by so-called crypto-native firms — companies focused exclusively on digital assets — alongside a lack of selling pressure from groups including Bitcoin miners, wealthy family offices, and other large investment funds.

Tight trading range

Bitcoin had been stuck in a narrow trading range for weeks, missing the equity rally over the Christmas holiday period and ending 2025 down 6.5%. Its performance last year fell short of expectations, despite a wave of crypto-friendly US policies promoted by President Donald Trump.

On January 2, investors poured a combined $471 million into 12 US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, marking the largest inflow since November 11 and reinforcing signs of a shift in market sentiment.

Derivatives positioning is also showing increased activity. Funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual futures — a measure of the cost of borrowing to maintain bullish bets — climbed to their highest level since October 18, according to CryptoQuant data.

Timothy Meiser, head of research at crypto firm BRN, said: “This is a market that is stabilizing rather than accelerating. The coming weeks will determine whether fresh capital inflows can translate into sustained momentum, or whether time remains the dominant force shaping prices.”

Traders are now watching to see whether Bitcoin can hold a sustained break above $94,000, while $88,000 is seen as the key support level on the downside, according to McNulty.

Oil prices fell on Monday, as ample global supply offset concerns about the impact of the US arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on crude flows from Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest oil reserves.

Brent crude futures slipped by 23 cents, or 0.4%, to $60.52 a barrel by 09:40 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell by 21 cents, or 0.4%, to $57.11 a barrel.

Benchmark prices were volatile in early Asian trading, as investors assessed developments in Venezuela, an OPEC member whose oil exports had been subject to US sanctions, as well as the potential impact on global oil supply.

US President Donald Trump said Washington would take control of the country and that sanctions would remain in place, after Maduro was detained in a New York prison on Sunday.

In a global market characterized by abundant supply, analysts said any additional disruption to Venezuelan exports would have a limited and immediate impact on prices.

Venezuela’s oil output has collapsed over recent decades due to mismanagement and a lack of investment from foreign companies after the country nationalized its oil operations in the early 2000s.

Average production stood at around 1.1 million barrels per day last year, equivalent to roughly 1% of global output.

Kazuhiko Fuji, a senior fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, said the US strikes had not damaged Venezuela’s oil sector.

Fuji said: “Even if Venezuelan exports are temporarily disrupted, more than 80% of them are shipped to China, which has built up large stockpiles.”

Venezuela’s interim president offered cooperation with the United States on Sunday.

Analysts at SEB said: “This reduces the risk of a prolonged ban on Venezuelan oil exports, with the possibility that oil shipments could flow freely from Venezuela within a relatively short period.”

Trump also warned of possible further US interventions, suggesting that Colombia and Mexico could face military action if they fail to curb illicit drug flows.

Analysts are also watching Iran’s response, after Trump warned on Friday of possible intervention in the crackdown on protests in the OPEC member state.

Separately, the OPEC and its allies agreed to keep output levels unchanged at their meeting on Sunday.

The US dollar began its first full trading week of 2026 by climbing to multi-week highs against a range of currencies, following a weak performance in December, as attention turns to a slate of key US economic data due later this week.

Traders were also closely watching developments in Venezuela, following a US raid and the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro.

US President Donald Trump told reporters on Sunday that he could order another strike if US efforts to open Venezuela’s oil sector and halt drug trafficking fail. He also hinted at possible military action against Colombia and Mexico.

Against a tense geopolitical backdrop, the dollar posted modest gains. However, analysts said it is still too early to conclude that the move is sustainable. The US monthly jobs report, due on Friday, is seen as a decisive factor in shaping monetary policy expectations — and as having a greater influence on the dollar than geopolitical developments.

Macroeconomics outweigh geopolitics for now

The dollar index rose for a fifth consecutive session, gaining 0.25% to reach its highest level since December 10, driven mainly by euro weakness. The euro fell 0.31% to $1.16845, its lowest level since the same date. The dollar index had declined 1.2% in December, marking its weakest monthly performance since August.

Jeremy Stretch, head of G10 FX strategy at CIBC Markets, said: “While we do see this geopolitical risk, I don’t think we should get stuck on it. We’ll very quickly get back to macro reality, because there’s a torrent of US data through the course of this week.”

He added: “Often, the first move in FX following a big event is the wrong one. I’m not saying it’s wrong here, but I do think this dollar strength could be vulnerable to correction if we see signs of fragility in the employment data.”

Stretch noted that a recent run of strong US economic releases has pushed markets to consider a slower pace of interest rate cuts this year.

This week’s data releases begin with the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday and conclude with the monthly nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said: “I would argue that FX markets are not really pricing in the risks from Venezuela so much as what the US data will reveal about the Federal Reserve’s policy path.”

Traders are currently pricing in two US interest rate cuts this year, according to calculations by LSEG based on futures pricing.

US rate cuts still in focus

Investors are also awaiting Trump’s pick for the next Federal Reserve chair, with Jerome Powell’s term set to expire in May. Trump has said he will announce his choice this month, indicating the successor would be “someone who believes in lower interest rates… by a lot.”

In Japan, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that the central bank would continue raising interest rates if economic conditions and price developments evolve in line with its forecasts. He has repeated this stance several times in recent months, including after December’s widely expected rate hike to the highest level in three decades.

The dollar was steady against the Japanese yen at 156.81, rose 0.34% against the Swiss franc to 0.795, and gained around 0.2% against both the Australian and New Zealand dollars.