Copper prices rose on Friday, yet most investment portfolios remain without exposure to the metal that underpins electric vehicles, renewable energy, and AI infrastructure. Despite China — which consumes 60% of global supply — showing signs of economic weakness, prices continued to climb in what analysts describe as an “unnatural” move.

Major banks expect copper to reach $15,000 per ton — a 43% increase from current levels — but stress that this outlook depends on distinguishing between temporary disruptions and long-term structural drivers. The market faces a structural supply deficit through 2027, leading analysts to label the present situation as a buying opportunity, albeit one fraught with volatility risks.

Supply Shocks Tighten the Global Market

Three major disruptions have removed large amounts of copper from global supply:

Grasberg Disaster: Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world’s second-largest, was forced into full closure after a catastrophic mudflow collapse on September 8, 2025. This could wipe out between 525,000 and 591,000 tons of supply through end-2026 — around 2.6% of global mine production.

Chile Mine Collapse: Codelco halted operations at its El Teniente mine following a tunnel collapse that killed seven workers.

Peru Protests: Hudbay suspended milling at its Constancia mine amid social unrest and protest blockades.

Goldman Sachs revised its 2025 forecast from a surplus of 105,000 tons to a deficit of 55,500 tons. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence expects the deepest deficit since 2004. Analysts note: “When three major mines shut down simultaneously, the market doesn’t just adapt — it reprices everything.”

AI Infrastructure Creates New Demand

Artificial intelligence is driving unexpected demand. Each hyperscale AI data center requires up to 50,000 tons of copper — compared with 5,000–15,000 tons for traditional centers. BloombergNEF estimates AI-driven data centers will consume an average of 400,000 tons annually over the next decade, peaking at 572,000 tons in 2028. By 2035, cumulative copper demand from these facilities could exceed 4.3 million tons.

Power consumption is also surging: AI data center electricity demand is projected to rise from 77 GW in 2023 to 334 GW by 2030, requiring vast amounts of copper in internal distribution and grid connections.

Electrification Supports Long-Term Demand

Several structural trends reinforce sustainable growth in copper demand:

Electric Vehicles: EVs use 2–3 times more copper than conventional cars. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts demand at 33 million tons by 2035 and 37 million tons by 2050, up from 27 million in 2024.

Renewables: Wind, solar, and grid modernization projects rely heavily on copper for generation and transmission.

Given the 17-year average lead time for new mine development, supply is unlikely to catch up quickly, entrenching the deficit.

Market Forecasts

Bank of America: $11,313 per ton in 2026, rising to $13,501 in 2027.

UBS: $11,000 per ton by September 2026.

J.P. Morgan: ~$11,000 per ton average in 2026.

Citi: Medium-term scenarios between $11,000–12,000.

As of 15:29 GMT in U.S. trading, December copper futures rose 1.9% to $5.04 per pound.

Bitcoin rose on Friday to its highest level in seven weeks, near $120,000, extending its path toward strong weekly gains. The rally was driven by seasonal optimism known among crypto investors as “Uptober,” along with expectations of higher liquidity following the U.S. government shutdown.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was up 1.2% at $120,052.2 by 02:20 ET (06:20 GMT), its highest since mid-August, after briefly surpassing $121,000 on Thursday.

Bitcoin has rebounded about 10% this week after a sharp late-September selloff triggered by mass liquidations of leveraged positions worth billions of dollars. More than $20 billion in crypto derivatives were liquidated last week, deepening the downturn before large whale buyers stepped in to support prices.

Bitcoin rebound supported by “Uptober” and liquidity expectations from U.S. shutdown

Historically, October has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, earning the nickname “Uptober” among investors.

This year’s seasonal optimism is reinforced by continued inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, along with expectations that broader macroeconomic conditions could become more accommodative.

Reports also suggested that the looming U.S. government shutdown may provide a short-term liquidity boost. The shutdown could delay key economic data releases and curb Treasury operations, which some investors believe may redirect liquidity toward alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies.

On the other hand, a prolonged shutdown could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook by depriving it of critical economic indicators, potentially adding to market volatility.

CME Group prepares for round-the-clock crypto trading

CME Group Inc (Nasdaq: CME) announced Thursday it will begin offering 24/7 trading of crypto futures and options starting in early 2026, pending regulatory approval.

The exchange operator said in a statement the move aims to meet rising client demand for continuous trading. Trading will run nonstop on the CME Globex platform, with only a brief weekly pause for maintenance.

The company added that its crypto products have seen record activity this year, including open interest reaching $39 billion in September and a 230% year-on-year surge in average daily trading volumes in August.

Oil prices rose slightly on Friday but remained on track for a weekly loss between 7% and 8%, amid reports of a potential increase in OPEC+ supplies.

Brent crude futures gained 43 cents, or 0.67%, to $64.54 a barrel by 08:26 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 46 cents, or 0.76%, to $60.94 a barrel.

On a weekly basis, Brent declined about 8%, while WTI was heading for a 7.3% drop.

Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, said: “We are in wait-and-see mode regarding what OPEC+ will decide over the weekend,” noting that Friday’s mild recovery in prices was likely driven by improved risk appetite in markets.

Sources told Reuters this week that OPEC+ may agree to raise oil output by as much as 500,000 barrels per day in November—triple the increase approved for October—as Saudi Arabia looks to reclaim market share.

Analysts said expectations of higher OPEC+ supply, alongside refinery slowdowns from maintenance and seasonal demand declines in the coming months, will weigh on market sentiment.

Rystad Energy analyst Jivnish Shah noted: “Demand indicators have weakened slightly in the Atlantic Basin as the summer peak ends. From a fundamentals perspective, signs of a surplus from October are becoming clearer.”

Similarly, JPMorgan analysts said they believe September marked a turning point, with the oil market heading toward a significant surplus in the fourth quarter and into next year.

Elsewhere, a fire broke out Thursday night at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery, but a local official said the blaze was contained to one area. The refinery is among the largest on the U.S. West Coast with a capacity of 290,000 barrels per day.

It was not immediately clear whether production was affected, but analysts downplayed the impact on prices.

Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM, said: “El Segundo is on the West Coast, which is isolated from the rest of the U.S. in terms of domestic oil flows, so the impact on the broader market is likely to be minimal.”

Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank, added: “Aside from boosting already elevated gasoline prices in California, I don’t expect the fire to have a wide market effect.”

The US dollar is heading on Friday to end its worst week since late July, amid rising uncertainty driven by the US government shutdown, while the Japanese yen retreated from its highs this week as investors await the Bank of Japan’s next move ahead of the ruling party’s leadership election at the weekend.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of major peers, slipped 0.1% to 97.78. The euro rose 0.2% to 1.17355 dollars, while the British pound gained 0.2% to 1.346 dollars.

Michael Brown, head of research at Pepperstone, said: “We now have a US government shutdown that has no direct practical impact, but it means market participants lack the usual economic data such as today’s nonfarm payrolls report, which explains the weakness and quiet tone in trading.”

He added that the upcoming ISM data from the US “is unlikely to be market-moving.”

As for the yen, it slipped 0.1% to 147.375 per dollar after earlier falling 0.4%, though it remains on track for a weekly gain of about 1.4%, its largest since mid-May.

This weakness followed cautious remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda about the global economy, reducing expectations of an imminent rate hike. Investors are also awaiting Saturday’s Liberal Democratic Party leadership election, which will decide the country’s next prime minister. Brown noted: “Markets were somewhat disappointed that Ueda did not show a clear inclination toward an October hike as some of his colleagues have recently, and this weighed on the yen.”

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey on Wednesday showed an improvement in sentiment among major manufacturers for a second consecutive quarter. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida also pointed Thursday to improving business conditions and higher corporate profits despite pressure from US tariffs.

But Ueda reiterated in his Friday speech that global factors—particularly the performance of the US economy—will shape the outlook for wages and prices in Japan. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note: “Ueda’s comments support our view that the probability of an October hike is very low.”

On the political front, Japan heads to elections on Saturday that will influence the budget and central bank policies. Among the leading contenders, long-serving politician Sanae Takaichi, who favors accommodative policy, could add to uncertainty in the bond market, while Agriculture Minister Shinjirō Koizumi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi are seen as less likely to bring major shifts.

In the US, a Chicago Fed report—based on public and private data—showed the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in September, unchanged from August, suggesting a sharp rise in joblessness has yet to begin. But details of the report, along with other data, reflected labor market weakness, as Wednesday’s ADP report showed a 32,000-job decline in the private sector in September, reinforcing expectations for two more Fed rate cuts this year.

Traders now see a 25-basis-point cut in October as virtually certain, while pricing in an 89% chance of another cut in December, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said Thursday that last month’s rate cut was an appropriate step to prevent severe labor market deterioration, but added that the slowdown remains gradual and expressed reluctance toward further easing at this stage.

Elsewhere, investors are awaiting speeches from several top central bankers at a farewell symposium for outgoing Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot, including ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.