Copper prices continue to climb steadily as supply pressures that have been anticipated for years are beginning to emerge across the global market.

According to the report’s author, copper remains “the simplest investment idea in the market,” arguing that current developments are unfolding exactly as expected. The world, the report says, does not have enough copper to meet the surge in demand expected from the expansion of artificial intelligence applications and the global energy transition.

At the same time, developing a new copper mine typically takes more than a decade, while the pipeline of new mining projects is becoming increasingly limited. As a result, any supply shortage can only be resolved through higher prices, followed later by the substitution of copper with aluminum in lower-value applications.

Front-month US copper futures are currently trading at $6.65 per pound, approaching the record high reached last month.

The report notes that US copper prices continue to trade at a premium to global markets due to US tariff policies. On the London Metal Exchange, three-month copper is trading around $13,600 per metric ton, implying a premium of roughly 6% in the US market.

The United States is expected to make a final decision on copper import tariffs by the end of July, with markets already beginning to price in the potential outcome.

Citigroup and Goldman Sachs raise copper forecasts

Citigroup has turned bullish on copper, stating that uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, combined with hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz later this summer, could push prices significantly higher.

The bank’s analysts expect copper to reach $15,000 per metric ton within the next year.

“We expect continued strategic ambiguity from US policymakers rather than a clear and definitive announcement regarding tariffs,” Citigroup analysts said. “We believe the US administration will refrain from imposing tariffs on refined copper, but will stop short of confirming that explicitly in order to encourage continued stockpiling of excess copper inventories within the United States.”

Similarly, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end copper target on Monday to $13,735 per metric ton, up from its previous forecast of $12,465.

War with Iran and supply risks

At the start of the conflict with Iran, there were concerns that higher oil prices and geopolitical tensions would weaken copper demand, but that has not materialized so far.

However, the report warns of a new threat to the copper market in the form of sulfur shortages, as a significant portion of global sulfur shipments passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed.

Sulfur is a critical component in copper production. Any disruption to supply could rapidly increase production costs and prices, potentially slowing mine output over time.

Morgan Stanley also sees copper reaching $15,000

Morgan Stanley has likewise projected copper prices reaching $15,000 per metric ton, noting that the metal is already trading near record highs while long positions on the COMEX exchange have reached unprecedented levels.

“Although copper is already trading near historical highs and net long positions on COMEX are at record levels, we believe any pullbacks will be short-lived given escalating supply disruptions, continued strength in US imports, and signs that China is rebuilding inventories during price declines,” the bank said.

Morgan Stanley added that the upcoming US tariff decision remains the market’s key catalyst, although the current price spread between COMEX and the London Metal Exchange is already encouraging copper shipments into the United States.

The bank also noted that any decision by Washington to increase tariffs could further accelerate the rally.

Copper mining stocks benefit from the rally

The report concludes by arguing that copper mining stocks remain the best way to gain exposure to the metal, highlighting that the COPX copper miners ETF rose 3.4% during the session and is approaching the upper end of its current trading range.

Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $65,710 on June 3, 2026, after dropping more than 6% over the past 24 hours, pressured by massive outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds ranging between $2.8 billion and $3.5 billion, as well as a Bitcoin sale by Strategy, one of the cryptocurrency’s most prominent institutional buyers since 2020.

The selling pressure triggered $1.8 billion in liquidations within a single day, the highest level since February 2026, with long positions accounting for approximately $1.35 billion of the total liquidations.

The move pushed Bitcoin to its lowest level in several weeks, placing the cryptocurrency near the key technical support level of $65,000, which traders view as a critical threshold before a potential test of the $60,000 level.

Unlike previous sharp ETF outflow episodes, the current streak of withdrawals has persisted for 10 to 11 consecutive days, reflecting broad institutional selling that has gradually weakened market conditions.

Record ETF outflows

Total net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached between $2.8 billion and $3.5 billion over a period of 10 to 11 consecutive redemption sessions.

This marks the longest streak of withdrawals since the launch of these funds in January 2024 and has pushed year-to-date flows into negative territory.

Simultaneous redemptions from major funds such as iShares Bitcoin Trust, Fidelity’s FBTC, Grayscale’s GBTC, and ARKB suggest a broad institutional risk-reduction strategy rather than issues specific to any individual fund.

The iShares Bitcoin Trust, which holds the largest share of assets among US spot Bitcoin ETFs, has typically recorded the largest dollar-denominated outflows during such periods.

The trend has also appeared globally, with European crypto investment products recording approximately $1.67 billion in outflows during the week of May 25–29, highlighting a broader reassessment of institutional exposure to digital assets.

Strategy sale raises concerns about the future of its holding strategy

Meanwhile, Strategy’s recent sale of 32 Bitcoin at an average price of roughly $77,135, generating about $2.5 million, represented less than 0.004% of the company’s $60 billion Bitcoin reserve.

Despite the small size of the transaction, its impact on market sentiment was significant.

Since 2020, Strategy has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest corporate supporters through continuous accumulation. However, the shift toward selling—particularly following comments by Michael Saylor about the possibility of liquidating a portion of holdings to fund dividend payments—introduced a new layer of uncertainty into the market.

Following the news, Strategy shares fell about 6% amid concerns that the company’s long-standing “never sell” philosophy may be weakening, potentially increasing future Bitcoin supply.

Market participants believe that perception contributed to Bitcoin’s accelerated decline toward the $65,710 level, as the transaction was viewed as a possible signal of future actions involving the company’s cryptocurrency reserves.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session as military confrontations in the Middle East intensified and talks between Tehran and Washington remained deadlocked with little sign of progress.

During trading, Brent crude futures climbed $2.30, or 2.4%, to $98.30 per barrel by 08:41 GMT.

US West Texas Intermediate crude also advanced $2.34, or 2.5%, to $96.10 per barrel.

Earlier in the session, Brent reached its highest level since May 27, while WTI touched its strongest level since May 22.

Iran launches missiles, US responds with strikes

Iran launched ballistic missiles toward both Kuwait and Bahrain, while US forces carried out strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island.

At the same time, diplomatic talks between Iran and the United States remain stalled, keeping market sentiment cautious and pessimistic.

IEA warning supports prices

Oil prices also found support after the International Energy Agency warned that global oil inventories could fall to critically low levels ahead of peak summer demand if current stock drawdowns continue.

“The stalemate in US-Iran negotiations and the IEA’s warning about global inventories falling to critical levels are adding further risk premiums to already elevated oil prices,” said Emril Jamil, Senior Oil Analyst at London Stock Exchange Group.

US inventories fall for a seventh straight week

In the United States, data from the American Petroleum Institute, cited by market sources, showed that US crude inventories declined for a seventh consecutive week last week.

According to the sources, crude stockpiles fell by 6.8 million barrels during the week ended May 29.

The market is now awaiting official US government inventory data, due later on Wednesday.

Renewed strength in the US dollar pushed the Japanese yen back toward the critical 160-per-dollar level on Wednesday, prompting verbal warnings from Japanese officials and keeping traders on alert for possible intervention in the currency market, while fresh military developments in the Gulf boosted demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

Renewed clashes in the Middle East

The United States said Iran launched ballistic missiles toward neighboring countries in the region, though no targets were hit, adding that US forces carried out strikes on Qeshm Island in response.

At the same time, diplomatic talks between Iran and the United States remain stalled, keeping a cautious mood across financial markets. The dollar typically benefits during periods of escalating regional tensions due to its safe-haven status and the relatively lower sensitivity of the US economy to energy-price shocks. In contrast, the yen tends to weaken when oil prices rise because of Japan’s heavy dependence on energy imports.

The critical level

The yen fell to the 160-per-dollar level on Wednesday, a threshold closely watched by markets after Japanese authorities previously intervened around that area. The decline erased gains achieved following Tokyo’s intervention last month, when authorities spent JPY11.7 trillion, equivalent to roughly $73 billion, to support the struggling currency.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi later said authorities stand ready to act and respond to foreign-exchange movements when necessary.

Following her remarks, the dollar eased slightly to JPY159.66.

“Terms-of-trade shock is the biggest factor weighing on the yen,” said Gustav Helgesson, macro strategist at SEB.

“If the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, I would expect some of the pressure driving yen weakness to fade,” he added.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda was scheduled to deliver a closely watched speech later on Wednesday, with investors looking for clues regarding the likelihood of an interest-rate increase in June.

Global currencies remain range-bound

Across broader currency markets, movements remained relatively subdued.

The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.1620, while sterling was little changed at $1.3460.

Data released on Tuesday showed eurozone inflation accelerated further last month, driven by higher energy and services costs, strengthening expectations that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates later this month.

The prolonged conflict in the Middle East and persistently elevated energy prices have led investors to increase bets on tighter monetary policy from major central banks this year, marking a sharp shift from the rate-cut expectations that dominated before the conflict began.

The Dollar Index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of major currencies, held steady at 99.29.

US labor market data in focus

US data released on Tuesday showed job openings rose at the fastest pace in five years during April, although the surge may overstate the underlying strength of the labor market.

Private-sector employment data is due later on Wednesday, ahead of Friday’s closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls report.

“The Nonfarm Payrolls report could be very important for the dollar,” said Helgesson of SEB.

“It could push the Federal Reserve further away from an easing bias and toward thinking about raising interest rates. I believe this could mark the beginning of a shift in market sentiment toward the dollar.”

Markets are currently pricing in roughly 18 basis points of US rate increases by December, with a full quarter-point hike priced in by March next year.

Swiss franc weakens as markets reassess positions

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc edged lower against both the dollar and the euro.

“Last year, the Swiss franc appeared to be one of the biggest beneficiaries, alongside gold and Bitcoin, of the dollar-debasement narrative,” said Chris Turner, Global Head of Markets at ING.

“But if markets become more confident that the Federal Reserve could actually move toward raising rates, we may see further unwinding of those dollar-bearish positions,” he added.