Copper prices climbed on Wednesday as traders increased their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, alongside growing expectations of stronger industrial-metal prices.

UBS said it expects copper to rise next year, citing tightening supply caused by ongoing disruptions at major mines, in addition to long-term structural demand driven by electrification and clean-energy investment, according to a research note released Friday.

In its latest forecast update, the bank raised its March 2026 copper target by 750 dollars per metric ton to 11,500 dollars. It also lifted its June and September 2026 targets by 1,000 dollars each, to 12,000 dollars and 12,500 dollars, respectively, and introduced a new December 2026 target of 13,000 dollars per ton.

UBS also sharply increased its market-deficit projections to 230,000 tons for 2025, up from a previous estimate of 53,000 tons, and to 407,000 tons for 2026, compared with 87,000 tons earlier. The bank said falling inventories and persistent supply risks will keep conditions tight.

It added that this year’s mine disruptions—including production issues at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, slow output recovery in Chile, and recurring protests in Peru—highlight structural supply constraints likely to persist into 2026.

Freeport-McMoRan said last week it plans to resume production at Grasberg by July, after a fatal accident forced operations to halt two months ago.

UBS downgraded its refined-copper production-growth estimates to 1.2% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026, citing ore-grade deterioration and operational challenges.

The bank expects global copper demand to grow 2.8% in both 2025 and 2026, supported by electric vehicles, renewable energy, grid investment, and data-center expansion.

UBS added that any downside in prices would likely be short-lived, recommending that investors maintain long positions or use volatility-selling strategies.

In US trading, March copper futures jumped 1.7% to 5.17 dollars per pound as of 15:51 GMT.

Bitcoin held relatively steady on Wednesday, maintaining its calm performance after slipping last week to a seven-month low, as investors cautiously assessed the rising odds of a US interest-rate cut and awaited the possible appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency dipped 0.5% to trade at 87,536.7 dollars by 01:39 Eastern Time (06:39 GMT).

After sliding below recent support levels to nearly 80,000 dollars, the token recovered some ground to hover around 88,000 dollars, but remains locked in a narrow range amid cautious trading and subdued risk appetite.

Rising rate-cut bets… and anticipation over a possible new Fed chair

Investor optimism about a December rate cut increased, as weaker-than-expected US economic data revived expectations that the Federal Reserve could soon ease borrowing costs.

At the same time, speculation that Kevin Hassett — a close adviser to Donald Trump — could replace the current Fed chair injected fresh momentum into markets. Reports indicated that Hassett is viewed as someone likely to support a more aggressive rate reduction if appointed.

Many believe this scenario would pave the way for a more accommodative monetary stance, typically supportive of high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Still, digital-asset investors remain cautious after the recent slide. The sharp drop and heightened volatility rattled market confidence, leading many participants to avoid large positions until the economic signals and policy outlook become clearer.

CFTC calls for nominations to new “Executive Innovation Council”

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is inviting nominations for its proposed new “Executive Innovation Council,” an initiative introduced by acting commissioner Caroline D. Pham to expand US oversight of cryptocurrencies and digital-asset markets.

Announced on Tuesday, the council aims to provide industry-led guidance on regulating digital assets, tokenized collateral, stablecoins, and other emerging market-structure issues.

Nominations must be submitted by December 8, including the candidate’s name, position, affiliated organization, and proposed areas of focus.

Pham described the initiative as “essential for moving quickly” as the agency broadens its supervision of the digital-asset sector.

Cryptocurrency prices today: slow action among altcoins

Most alternative cryptocurrencies saw muted price action on Wednesday, trading within tight ranges.

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, rose 0.4% to 2,934.92 dollars.

XRP, the third-largest token globally, fell 2.2% to 2.19 dollars.

Oil prices stabilized on Wednesday after falling in the previous session to a one-month low, as investors assessed the prospects of an oversupply and the ongoing discussions related to a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

Brent crude futures rose by 13 cents to 62.61 dollars per barrel as of 11:35 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 19 cents to 58.14 dollars per barrel.

Priyanka Sachdeva, analyst at Phillip Nova, said: “The market remains fundamentally skewed toward the downside, as investors increasingly price 2026 as a year of supply surplus, with no convincing catalyst on the demand side to offset it.”

Both Brent and WTI settled 89 cents lower on Tuesday after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told European leaders he was ready to move forward with the US-backed framework to end the war with Russia, with only a few points of contention remaining.

Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG Market, said in a note to clients: “If a final agreement is reached, it could lead to a rapid unwinding of Western sanctions on Russian energy exports, potentially driving WTI prices toward 55 dollars per barrel.”

He added: “For now, the market is waiting for more clarity, but risks appear tilted toward lower prices unless talks stall.”

US President Donald Trump said he instructed his representatives to meet separately with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian officials. A Ukrainian official said Zelensky may visit the United States in the coming days to finalize the agreement.

The United Kingdom, the European Union, and the United States have tightened sanctions on Russia in recent weeks, while India’s imports of Russian oil are expected to fall to their lowest level in three years in December.

On the supply front, the OPEC+ alliance is likely to keep production levels unchanged at its meeting on Sunday, according to three OPEC+ sources quoted by Reuters on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) said it resumed oil loading overnight after operations were suspended earlier in the week following a Ukrainian drone attack.

US crude inventories fell last week while fuel stocks increased, according to market sources on Tuesday citing data from the American Petroleum Institute.

Official inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration is scheduled for release on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time (15:30 GMT).

The US dollar remained near a one-week low during Wednesday’s trading as markets awaited further economic data and continued to speculate about Federal Reserve policy.

Growing expectations of an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December helped support global equities.

The dollar index stayed close to its lowest level in a week, while China’s offshore yuan touched a 13-month high after the Chinese central bank guided the currency toward stronger levels alongside broad US-dollar weakness.

With markets becoming more certain about a Fed rate cut next month, traders believe the path for long-term forward premiums will depend more heavily on the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision scheduled for December 5.

Data released Tuesday showed that US retail sales rose less than expected in September, while producer prices came in line with expectations.

US consumer confidence declined in November as households grew increasingly worried about jobs and their financial conditions.

This prompted traders to increase their bets on a Fed rate cut next month, with markets now pricing an 84% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction, according to the CME FedWatch tool — keeping pressure on the US dollar.

Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said: “The overnight data certainly paints a picture of a slowing US economy, adding to the justification for a near-term rate cut by the FOMC.”

Against a weaker dollar, the euro moved close to the 1.16 level and was last traded at 1.1567, supported by slight indications of progress on a peace plan between Russia and Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that his country is ready to move forward with the US-supported framework to end the war with Russia and that he would discuss the remaining points of contention with US President Donald Trump, in talks that should include European allies.

The British pound was little changed, stabilizing at 1.3166 ahead of the highly sensitive budget announcement to be presented today by UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who is expected to reveal tens of billions of pounds in tax increases.

Traders rushed into the options market for protection against potentially sharp swings in the pound ahead of the budget outcome.

Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie, said in a note: “Speculative activity and hedging against sterling have risen in the weeks leading up to the UK’s Autumn Budget statement.” He added that the currency may see a temporary boost if the proposed budget is viewed as “fiscally disciplined.”

The US dollar fell 0.03% against a basket of major currencies to 99.82, after losing 0.3% in the previous session — its biggest daily decline in about three weeks.

The greenback also came under pressure following a Bloomberg report stating that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has emerged as a leading contender for the Federal Reserve chairmanship.

Like Trump, Hassett has argued that interest rates should be lower than they are under Jerome Powell’s leadership. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that there is a good chance Trump will announce his choice before Christmas.

Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank, said: “Hassett is viewed as being closely aligned with President Trump’s preference for lower interest rates, and his appointment would likely strengthen the administration’s push for a more accommodative monetary policy.”

Meanwhile, a weaker dollar provided some relief to the yen, which slipped 0.1% on Wednesday to 156.24 per dollar, but remained far from last week’s ten-month low of 157.90.

Traders remain alert to the possibility of intervention from Tokyo to halt the currency’s decline, with Thursday’s US Thanksgiving holiday offering a potential window for authorities to act.

Kong of Commonwealth Bank of Australia said: “Thanksgiving will mean thinner liquidity, and that could be a convenient time for Japanese authorities to intervene, as the impact on markets would be larger.” She added: “I do think direct intervention is definitely a risk this week, based on the recent comments from Japanese officials.”