Elevated spot metal prices suggest that 2026 could be one of the strongest profit years in recent memory for diversified mining companies, with Rio Tinto and Glencore emerging as the leading beneficiaries, according to a report from Bloomberg Intelligence.

The report indicates that current price levels imply a potential uplift of between 18% and 21% to consensus EBITDA forecasts for next year, marking the largest earnings upside since early 2025. Rio Tinto and Glencore are seen delivering the strongest performance, with potential increases of around 20%–21%.

Alon Olsha, senior industry analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said earnings revisions for major miners are expected to accelerate, led by Rio Tinto and Glencore. He added that stronger earnings momentum could support further share-funded mergers and acquisitions, while also increasing execution risks, particularly for Rio Tinto.

Growth quality matters as much as scale

The report stresses that the composition of earnings growth is as important as its magnitude, with investors likely to place a higher valuation on gains driven by copper and precious metals rather than iron ore, where market expectations still point to weaker pricing.

For Glencore, strong metallurgical coal and copper prices account for roughly two-thirds of the potential earnings upside, while gold and silver contribute more than 4%, despite not being core profit drivers.

Rio Tinto, meanwhile, has seen a sharp improvement in earnings expectations, with aggregate 2026 EBIT estimates revised up by 18% over the past six months, outperforming peers. Current metal prices imply a further potential upside of 21%, strengthening its relative position but also raising the bar for any large, equity-funded acquisition.

By contrast, Glencore’s 2026 earnings have risen by just 5% over the same period, suggesting greater scope for positive revisions if current price conditions persist.

Copper becomes the “king of metals”

Copper’s growing dominance marks a structural shift in miners’ earnings mix. Previously dubbed “Dr Copper,” the metal has now been labeled the “king of commodities” by Bloomberg Intelligence. Copper is expected to account for more than 35% of diversified miners’ earnings in 2026, up about 14 percentage points from eight years ago, driven more by higher prices and portfolio simplification than by volume growth.

Rio Tinto stands out on production, having increased copper output by 54% since 2019 following the ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi project, compared with an 11% increase at BHP. The race to secure copper-rich production lines has pushed miners toward organic growth and early-stage M&A, before assets become fully de-risked and re-rated.

Companies such as Anglo American have pivoted further toward copper following their deal with Teck, with combined copper earnings expected to exceed 70%. BHP follows at around 50%, Glencore at roughly 35%, while Rio Tinto’s copper exposure stands near 26%, with iron ore still dominant at 47%.

2026 performance outlook

Bloomberg Intelligence expects diversified miners’ earnings to rise collectively in 2026, led by Glencore and Anglo American with growth of 24%–28%. Copper remains the key lever, with prices forecast to rise 25% versus 2025 under Bloomberg’s scenario, or about 16% based on consensus, while Glencore’s trading division could provide additional upside if volatility persists.

Cost pressures, particularly labor-related, remain a risk as prices rise. However, companies with meaningful by-product exposure to precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to see those revenues more than offset cost inflation.

Execution will be decisive. Glencore must improve operational performance while advancing Coroccohuayco and Alumbrera. Anglo American faces a critical phase integrating Teck and streamlining its portfolio. BHP needs to stabilize Jansen, clarify its Australian copper strategy, and deliver a technical study for Vicuna in the first quarter. Rio Tinto will focus on lithium integration, advancing ongoing projects, and completing a strategic review of its minerals business, while Vale continues work on plans to double copper output by 2030.

Bloomberg Intelligence concludes that macro trends are set to favor base metals over bulk commodities, with sustained demand from electrification, artificial intelligence, and defense spending, alongside supply constraints and expectations of interest-rate cuts. Iron ore, by contrast, faces a tougher outlook amid faster supply growth and higher trade barriers for Chinese exports.

Bitcoin rose above the $89,000 level on Wednesday but continued to trade within a narrow range, as investors balanced the weakness of the US dollar and record-high gold prices against caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision due later in the day.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading up 1.1% at $89,235.8 as of 02:07 ET (07:07 GMT).

Bitcoin trades sideways as markets await the Fed

Bitcoin found support from the broad decline in the US dollar, after President Donald Trump played down concerns over the recent weakness of the American currency.

The dollar hovered near its lowest levels in four years, while gold extended its strong rally, posting fresh record highs above $5,200 per ounce. This environment boosted demand for alternative assets seen as stores of value.

Despite these supportive factors, Bitcoin struggled to stage a decisive upside breakout, remaining confined to a tight range between $88,000 and $89,000.

Trading positions remained relatively light, as investors stayed on the sidelines awaiting clearer signals from the Federal Reserve. Risk appetite has been constrained by uncertainty surrounding the near-term path of US interest rates, as well as ongoing questions over the central bank’s independence.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its policy meeting later on Wednesday. Market participants are focusing closely on the accompanying statement and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for clues on the timing of potential rate cuts, particularly as inflation shows signs of easing while the US economy continues to display a degree of resilience.

Lower interest rates typically support non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin by reducing the opportunity cost of holding them.

Adding another layer of uncertainty, markets are also watching for developments related to Trump’s expected nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair. Investors are assessing the potential impact of political influence on the monetary policy framework and the central bank’s tolerance for higher inflation.

Cryptocurrency prices today: modest gains for altcoins

Most major alternative cryptocurrencies posted modest gains on Wednesday, tracking Bitcoin’s advance. Ether, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, rose 2.6% to $3,006.92.

XRP, the third-largest cryptocurrency by market value, climbed 1.1% to $1.92.

Oil prices held near their highest levels in almost four months during Wednesday’s trading, supported by disruptions to US crude production caused by a severe winter storm, alongside a weaker US dollar and ongoing supply issues in Kazakhstan.

By 10:17 GMT, Brent crude futures slipped 39 cents, or 0.6%, to $67.18 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 22 cents, or 0.4%, to $62.17 per barrel. Both benchmark contracts had climbed around 3% in Tuesday’s session.

This performance came amid continued weakness in the US dollar, which is trading near a four-year low against a basket of major currencies, making dollar-priced commodities such as oil cheaper for holders of other currencies.

On the supply side, ship-tracking firm Vortexa said US Gulf Coast crude oil exports fell to zero on Sunday, before recovering on Monday, after a powerful winter storm swept across large parts of the United States.

Gradual recovery in Kazakhstan

Lost output in Kazakhstan also helped support prices, although the OPEC+ member hopes to gradually resume production at the Tengiz field within a week. Sources familiar with the matter said, however, that the recovery process could take longer than expected.

In the same context, sources said CPC, the operator of the pipeline that carries around 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, has restored full loading capacity at its Black Sea terminal after completing maintenance work on one of its berths that was damaged by drone attacks.

The OPEC+ alliance, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and other allies, is expected to maintain its decision to pause oil output increases for March at a meeting scheduled for February 1, according to delegates from the group.

On the other hand, prices could face some pressure as US officials work on issuing a general license that would ease some of the sanctions imposed on Venezuela’s energy sector, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

On the geopolitical front, US officials said an American aircraft carrier and accompanying warships have arrived in the Middle East, strengthening President Donald Trump’s ability to defend US forces or carry out potential military actions against Iran. This development has heightened concerns over possible disruptions to oil supplies from OPEC’s fourth-largest crude producer.

On the demand side, a Reuters poll showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories are expected to rise in the week ended January 23, while distillate stockpiles are likely to decline. Official government data are due to be released later today at 15:30 GMT.

The US dollar regained some balance on Wednesday after a sharp sell-off, as US President Donald Trump appeared largely unconcerned about the currency’s recent weakness, while strong corporate earnings kept global equity markets near record highs ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.

The US currency edged slightly higher, moving away from levels close to a four-year low. However, market sentiment remained fragile following the largest bout of selling since Trump’s tariff measures rattled markets last April.

European equities declined, while US equity futures pointed to a positive opening on Wall Street. Japan’s Nikkei index posted modest gains, while the MSCI world equity index hovered near its all-time highs.

Jan von Gerich, chief market analyst at Nordea, said: “Last week, when it looked like there was a broad flight from US assets, we saw equities fall, pressure on Treasuries, and a weaker dollar. Now the story is much more focused on the dollar itself.” He added: “The most important aspect of tonight’s Fed meeting is that Jerome Powell may now address political pressure, something he has completely avoided so far.”

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at a meeting overshadowed by a criminal investigation launched by the Trump administration into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ongoing efforts to remove board member Lisa Cook, and the approaching announcement of a nominee to succeed Powell when his term ends in May.

Currency moves

The dollar index, which tracks the US currency against six major peers, rose 0.25% to 96.16 points, after falling more than 1% on Tuesday to its lowest level in four years.

Trump said on Tuesday that the dollar’s value was “great” when asked whether he thought the currency had fallen too far.

While this stance is not new, traders interpreted the remarks as a signal encouraging further selling pressure on the dollar, at a time when markets are bracing for potential coordinated intervention by the United States and Japan to support the yen.

The dollar’s decline pushed the euro above the $1.20 level for the first time since 2021, while the Australian dollar briefly climbed above 70 cents, marking a three-year high. Gold surged to a fresh record, and dollar-denominated commodity prices also advanced.

Steve Englander, head of G10 FX research at Standard Chartered in New York, said: “Officials usually push back against sharp currency moves, but when the president appears indifferent or even supportive of them, that encourages dollar sellers to stay in the trade.”

Strong earnings

Elsewhere, ASML, the world’s largest supplier of chipmaking equipment, reported fourth-quarter bookings that exceeded expectations, signaling continued strength in AI-related demand. The company’s shares jumped 5%, outperforming the largely flat European equity market.

On Wall Street, in addition to the Fed decision, investors are awaiting earnings results from major technology firms, with Meta and Tesla set to report after the market close.

Dollar weakness continued to support other assets, with gold surging to a new record above $5,280 per ounce, while Brent crude rose to a four-month high at just above $68 per barrel.

In Asia, stronger-than-expected Australian inflation data for December reinforced expectations of an early interest rate hike, potentially as soon as next week. ANZ and Westpac revised their forecasts accordingly, bringing all four of Australia’s major banks into alignment on a rate hike scenario.

By contrast, Indonesia’s stock market plunged 7% after MSCI raised concerns over opaque ownership and trading structures and decided to suspend updates to the inclusion of Indonesian stocks in its global indices followed by investors worldwide.