Copper prices declined on Monday, giving up part of last week’s strong gains despite ongoing concerns over supply disruptions following the deadly incident at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine.

Three-month benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 0.7% to $10,639.50 per metric ton by mid-afternoon trading, erasing earlier gains after the metal recorded its biggest weekly increase in a year last week.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), three-month copper futures traded at $11,115 per metric ton ($5.0525 per pound), down 1% for the day.

Prices came under pressure as the US dollar strengthened, rising after the French prime minister’s resignation and growing expectations that Japan will appoint a pro-stimulus leader. A stronger dollar typically weighs on dollar-priced commodities, making them more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Grasberg Mine Tragedy Deepens Supply Risks

Copper markets remain tense amid continued global production disruptions. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) declared force majeure last month at its Grasberg copper and gold mine after mudflows flooded underground tunnels, forcing the company to scale back output.

In a statement issued Sunday, Freeport confirmed that all seven missing workers were found dead after five additional bodies were recovered. The Grasberg mine, located in Papua, is the second-largest copper mine in the world and a key pillar of global supply.

Focus Shifts to US Economic Data and Fed Policy

Investors will turn their attention later this week to upcoming US economic data, including jobless claims and inflation expectations, though their release may be delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown.

Market sentiment was also influenced by recent Federal Reserve comments. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said Friday that the central bank remains further from achieving its inflation goal than from reaching maximum employment, signaling caution over future rate cuts.

Analysts expect that a future monetary easing cycle could support copper and other commodities by weakening the dollar. However, Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina warned that excessive monetary easing might trigger an inflationary surge in commodity prices, potentially harming economic growth.

“LaFemina wrote in a research note: ‘Starting a rate-cutting cycle while the economy remains relatively strong should be positive for commodity prices,’” he added, “but there is still a risk of an inflationary spike in commodities that could hurt growth.”

Meanwhile, the US dollar index rose 0.4% to 98.1 by 15:40 GMT, reaching a session high of 98.5 and a low of 97.9.

In US trading, December copper futures fell 1.1% to $5.05 per pound as of 15:22 GMT.

Bitcoin prices edged lower on Monday after hitting a new record above $125,000 over the weekend, as strong inflows into US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mounting concerns over a prolonged US government shutdown continued to support market sentiment.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped 1.6% to $123,716.7 by 1:50 a.m. Eastern Time (05:50 GMT), after reaching an all-time high of $125,617.4 on Sunday.

Bitcoin had surged more than 11% last week and is now up over 30% since the start of 2025.

Bitcoin rally driven by ETF inflows; “Debasement Trade” gains traction

Data from digital asset research firm SoSoValue showed that net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $3.24 billion last week — the largest weekly increase of 2025.

The surge reflects renewed institutional interest, as investors increasingly prefer gaining exposure to Bitcoin through regulated investment products rather than direct purchases.

The rise in inflows coincided with growing concern over the ongoing US government shutdown, which has now entered its second week.

The political stalemate has delayed the release of key economic data and heightened uncertainty about fiscal policy, leading traders to bet that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more cautious stance on interest rates once government operations resume.

Reports described this trend as part of a “Debasement Trade,” where investors shift capital into assets like Bitcoin and gold to hedge against weakening confidence in fiat currencies and rising fiscal pressures.

Walmart-backed OnePay plans to launch crypto trading services – CNBC

CNBC reported Friday, citing sources familiar with the matter, that OnePay, a fintech company backed by Walmart (NYSE: WMT), plans to add cryptocurrency trading and digital custody services to its banking app later this year.

According to the report, OnePay — majority-owned by Walmart and venture capital firm Ribbit Capital — will allow users to buy and hold Bitcoin and Ether through a partnership with crypto infrastructure provider Zerohash.

The move marks the latest step in OnePay’s expansion toward building an all-in-one financial “Everything App,” as it seeks to broaden its offerings beyond savings accounts, payment cards, and “buy now, pay later” services.

Oil prices rose by more than 1% on Monday after OPEC+ announced a planned production increase for November that was smaller than expected, easing some concerns about oversupply, although weak demand forecasts are likely to cap gains in the near term.

Brent crude futures climbed 89 cents, or 1.4%, to $65.42 a barrel by 11:07 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 84 cents, or roughly 1.4%, to $61.72 a barrel.

Rystad Energy analyst Yaniv Shah said, “The market was expecting a slightly larger increase from OPEC+, as last week’s price structure indicated. But the modest 137,000-barrel-per-day hike already adds to the anticipated surplus in the supply-demand balance for the fourth quarters of 2025 and 2026.”

OPEC and its allies, including Russia and several smaller producers, announced on Sunday that they would raise output in November by 137,000 barrels per day — the same as October’s increase — amid lingering concerns about a potential supply glut.

Ahead of the meeting, sources said Russia supported the 137,000-barrel increase to avoid price pressure, while Saudi Arabia preferred a doubling or tripling of that amount to quickly regain market share.

Thomas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, noted that the modest increase comes at a time when markets are seeing higher exports from Venezuela, the resumption of Kurdish oil flows via Turkey, and unsold Middle Eastern cargoes scheduled for November loading.

Saudi Arabia kept its official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia unchanged.

Asian refiners surveyed by Reuters had expected a small price hike, but those expectations faded after concerns over rising Middle Eastern supply drove premiums down to their lowest level in 22 months last week.

Despite US pressure on India — one of the largest buyers of Russian oil — to scale back imports, an Indian government official told Reuters on Monday that refiners have sufficient Russian supply. He added that recent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure increased available volumes, partially supporting the market.

In the near term, analysts expect the upcoming refinery maintenance season in the Middle East to help limit price gains.

Weak demand fundamentals during the fourth quarter also remain a factor restraining the market’s upside.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported last week that crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories rose more than expected during the week ending September 26, as refinery activity and demand declined.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, said: “If we see a steadier increase in production, the downside in oil prices may be limited. Much now depends on whether the US economy can regain growth momentum through the rest of 2025 and into 2026, as that would significantly support demand.”

The US dollar rose against most major currencies during Monday’s trading as the government shutdown in the United States continued, with no sign of resolution in sight, prompting investors to move toward safe-haven assets such as the dollar and gold.

Reports over the weekend indicated that there was little progress toward ending the government shutdown in the United States, meaning further delays in the release of official economic data. It is likely that the foreign exchange market (forex) will witness another week of volatility, as the suspension of most economic data releases shifts the focus toward other macroeconomic developments.

In general, the longer the US government shutdown lasts, the greater the potential pressure on the US dollar. However, the greenback has so far shown remarkable resilience, which — according to Francesco Pesoli, currency analyst at ING Bank — confirms that markets have already raised the bar significantly for how bad the US economic news would need to be to prompt investors to increase short positions on the dollar.

The dollar index rose by 0.7% at 12:20 GMT to 98.3 points, recording a high of 98.5 points and a low of 97.9 points.

Local Stories May Lead G10 Currency Movements

Pesoli said: “Market pricing for Federal Reserve rate cuts in December remains slightly below 50 basis points (around 46 basis points this morning), which is close to the median projection in the Fed’s Dot Plot. The event likely to have the biggest impact on markets this week will be the release of the minutes of the September meeting of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.”

He added: “We will look in the minutes for signs that the cautious tone expressed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding further rate cuts is shared by most members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The risks appear to be tilted slightly toward the dovish side, which could lead to a mild negative reaction in the dollar. Therefore, we expect the dollar to remain relatively stable in the coming days, though downside risks persist. However, domestic stories could be the main driver for other G10 currencies, as we are currently seeing in Japan.”

The Japanese Yen May Regain Advantage if the US Shutdown Persists

Pesoli said: “We do not see much room for further upside in the USD/JPY pair from current levels. A much weaker yen would increase concerns about living costs in Japan, and continued strength in the pair could create friction with Washington. Therefore, the yen may remain a preferred option if the US government shutdown continues for an extended period. We view the move above the 150.0 level in USD/JPY as temporary rather than the beginning of a sustained uptrend.”

A Busy Week of Central Bank Officials’ Speeches

The report noted that this week will be busy with speeches from central bank officials of the G10 economies. Jerome Powell will deliver an opening speech on Thursday at the Federal Reserve’s Community Banking Conference, alongside other members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), including Michelle Bowman.

Speeches will also be heard from the heads of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England (both today), Norges Bank on Tuesday, and the Reserve Bank of Australia on Friday, along with additional remarks from several Fed officials throughout the week.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with expectations pointing to a 25-basis-point interest rate cut.