Copper prices fell during Monday’s trading amid a rise in the US dollar against most major currencies, despite the trade agreement between the United States and the European Union.

The agreement, announced on Sunday, stipulates the imposition of a 15% tariff on most European goods instead of 30%. US President Donald Trump also indicated that the deal includes a commitment from the European Union to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products over the coming years.

Senior officials from the United States and China are scheduled to meet in Stockholm today, Monday, in an attempt to extend the trade truce before the August 12 deadline.

Separately, the increase in exports to China contributed to the East African Community (EAC) achieving its first-ever trade surplus with the rest of the world during the first quarter ending in March 2025, in a sign of a potential shift in the region's stance on global trade.

The bloc, composed of eight member states, recorded a joint trade surplus of $840 million with its global trading partners, the first positive balance in its modern history, largely due to the sharp rise in exports to China, the group’s largest trading partner.

This shift may be partly due to the escalation of the US–China trade war, which some economists say could prompt Beijing to diversify its sources of essential commodities such as metals and agricultural products.

According to data from the East African Community Secretariat, the group’s member states exported goods worth a total of $17.7 billion to the rest of the world during the three-month period, an increase of 47 percent compared to $12 billion during the same period last year.

In contrast, imports from countries outside the bloc did not exceed the value of exports, despite recording a 5 percent increase to $16.8 billion in March, compared to $16.1 billion a year earlier.

As a result, there was a net inflow of foreign currency into the region, which eased pressure on the foreign exchange market and helped stabilize East African currencies, which have long suffered from sharp fluctuations due to global economic shocks over the past five years.

The recession caused by Trump’s tariffs

This development comes in the wake of the steep tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on imports from several African countries, whose implementation has been suspended until at least August 1. Economists interpret the sudden rise in exports as a preemptive move to avoid the return of these tariffs.

Phyllis Papadavid, an economist and senior researcher at the Overseas Development Institute in London, said: “The fact that the surplus is driven by growth in exports is extremely positive. Some exporters may have accelerated shipments in anticipation of tariff imposition.”

In fact, exports to the United States jumped by 35 percent, equivalent to $73 million, reaching $280 million during the year ending in March. However, this figure represents only 1.3 percent of the total increase in the bloc’s exports, suggesting other factors contributed to this shift.

The US–China trade dispute is reshaping the landscape

Among these factors is the escalation of the US–China trade dispute, which may have prompted Beijing to look for alternative suppliers, especially for metals and agricultural products — two of its key imports from Washington.

The bloc’s exports to China jumped to $5.8 billion during this period, a 66 percent increase from $3.5 billion in the previous year. In contrast, the bloc’s imports from China rose slightly by 7.6 percent to $4 billion, compared to $3.7 billion in March 2024.

This marks the first time the East African Community records a trade surplus with China, reflecting a significant shift in a relationship that had always tilted in favor of Beijing due to its imports of electronics and heavy machinery.

At the same time, the bloc’s exports to four of its other major trading partners — the UAE, Hong Kong, South Africa, and India — also increased, boosting the trade surplus.

For example, the bloc’s exports to Hong Kong tripled within a year, rising from $561.9 million in 2024 to $1.58 billion this year, making it East Africa’s third-largest export market after China and the UAE.

The bloc’s imports from some of its main trading partners — such as the UAE, India, Russia, and Germany — saw a notable decline in total value, which also contributed to the surplus.

Bernard Wabukala, an economics professor at Makerere University Business School, said: “The bloc’s total trade with the world is increasing, but export growth is outpacing import growth.”

Dr. Wabukala confirmed that rising demand for African goods from the Chinese market was the main driver behind the increase in exports, noting that the surplus was a natural result of an upward trajectory that began some time ago.

He told The EastAfrican: “We’ve seen a major jump in exports to China, reflecting strong demand from that market, along with an improvement in product quality and diversity, especially in agriculture and mining. This trend is likely to continue in the medium term, especially with better rainy seasons supporting agricultural output.”

Data from the East African Community shows that the commodity with the largest increase in exports during this period was “copper and its derivatives,” which nearly doubled to reach $6.6 billion, compared to $3.9 billion in March 2024, indicating a massive rise in exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Other exports that saw strong growth included pearls, precious metals, and gemstones, which rose by 77 percent to $2.95 billion, compared to $1.67 billion, and are mainly exported from Congo, and partially from Tanzania and Uganda.

Exports of coffee, tea, and spices — mainly from Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania — also rose by $364.4 million, or about 30 percent, reaching $1.2 billion during the same period.

Meanwhile, the dollar index rose by 0.7% to 98.3 points by 16:10 GMT, recording a high of 98.3 and a low of 97.4 points.

In trading, copper futures for September delivery dropped by 2.9% to $5.62 per pound at 16:03 GMT.

Bitcoin traded above $119,000 on Monday, rebounding slightly from two-week lows as investor optimism grew following a new trade agreement between the US and the EU, which boosted risk appetite across markets.

Bitcoin was priced at $119,552.6 early Monday, up around 1.1% as of 2:18 a.m. ET (06:18 GMT).

At the time of writing, Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $118,800 on CoinMarketCap at 14:04 GMT.

Meanwhile, other cryptocurrencies posted stronger gains, with Ether hitting its highest level in seven weeks.

Markets Await Fed Meeting and US Crypto Policy Report on July 30

Markets found some relief in the trade framework agreement announced Sunday between Washington and Brussels. The deal imposed only a 15% tariff on European imports — down from the 30% previously threatened — alongside EU commitments to purchase $750 billion in US energy and invest heavily in infrastructure and defense.

This agreement reduced political and trade-related risks, prompting investors to rotate away from safe-haven assets like gold in favor of high-risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Attention now turns to the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, which concludes Wednesday. The central bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%.

Traders will closely analyze the accompanying statement and remarks for signs of potential rate cuts later this year. A dovish tone from the Fed could further support Bitcoin by reducing the appeal of low-yielding safe assets.

Investors are also awaiting the US crypto policy report, due July 30, which is expected to outline plans for creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve and provide greater regulatory clarity, especially regarding stablecoins.

Such regulatory clarity is seen as a key factor in boosting institutional confidence in the crypto market.

Bitcoin Remains Range-Bound Despite Trade Optimism

Despite recent gains, Bitcoin has remained range-bound between $116,000 and $120,000 over the past two weeks, reflecting investor caution as markets await clearer policy signals. While trade optimism supports risk-taking, broader economic challenges and Fed guidance are capping sharp price gains.

A BBC report described the US–EU agreement as a “major concession” from Brussels. The 15% tariff remains well above pre-April levels (what Trump calls “Liberation Day”) and less favorable than the 10% rate granted to the UK.

The report added that Trump played a decisive role in securing the deal, just as he did with recent agreements with Japan and the UK. Talks are also underway between the US and China in Stockholm, with expectations of extending the current tariff truce before the August 1 deadline.

Institutional Demand for Bitcoin Remains Strong

Despite sideways price action, institutional interest remains solid. According to data from SoSoValue, US Bitcoin ETFs recorded $72.06 million in inflows last week — marking the seventh consecutive week of net inflows since mid-June.

However, the report noted that the figure is significantly lower than the large inflows seen in prior weeks, and a meaningful rise in Bitcoin prices would likely require a major uptick in institutional flows.

Silver prices declined in the European market on Monday, extending losses for the fourth consecutive session and pulling further away from the 14-year high. The drop comes amid continued profit-taking and correction activity, coupled with pressure from the rising US dollar in the foreign exchange market.

Risk sentiment in global markets improved as fears of a US economic slowdown eased, especially after the United States reached new trade agreements with Japan and the European Union, with China possibly next in line.

The Price

• Silver Prices Today: Silver fell by 0.3% to $38.06, down from the opening level of $38.17. It recorded a session high of $38.34.

• On Friday, silver settled with a loss of about 2.3%, marking its third straight daily decline, driven by continued profit-taking from the 14-year high of $39.53 per ounce.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index rose by 0.7% on Monday, extending its rally for a third session and reaching a near two-week high of 98.32 points. This reflects the continued strength of the US currency against a basket of major and minor peers.

The dollar’s rise comes as concerns over a US economic slowdown ease following recent trade deals struck by the United States with Japan and the European Union.

Additionally, strong economic data suggests that the Federal Reserve may take more time before resuming interest rate cuts.

Positive Trade Developments

The United States signed a framework trade agreement with the European Union on Sunday, imposing a 15% tariff on most European goods — half of what Trump had previously threatened to impose starting August 1.

This positive development helped avert a broader trade war between the two allies, who together account for nearly one-third of global trade.

Meanwhile, top US and Chinese negotiators are scheduled to meet in Stockholm on Monday to discuss extending the trade truce and preventing sharp tariff increases.

Oil prices rose on Monday as investors reacted to a trade agreement between the United States and the European Union that spared most European goods from tariffs that had been set as high as 30%.

Brent crude futures climbed by 76 cents, or 1.1%, to $69.20 a barrel by 10:28 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 74 cents, or 1.1%, to $65.90 a barrel.

Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Markets, said: “The trade agreement between the US and the EU, along with the possibility of extending the tariff truce with China, is supporting global financial markets and oil prices.”

The deal, announced on Sunday, imposes a 15% tariff on most European goods instead of 30%. US President Donald Trump also stated that the agreement includes a pledge from the European Union to purchase $750 billion worth of American energy products over the coming years.

Senior officials from the United States and China are scheduled to meet in Stockholm on Monday in an effort to extend the trade truce ahead of the August 12 deadline.

Thomas Varga, analyst at PVM, said the deal between Washington and Brussels has “removed another layer of uncertainty,” adding that “the focus seems to be shifting back to fundamentals.” He noted that a strong dollar and reduced crude oil imports by India were weighing on prices.

On the supply side, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is expected to stick with its current production increase plans at its meeting today, according to four delegates who spoke to Reuters on July 25.

ING expects the coalition to complete the full restoration of the 2.2 million barrels per day of additional voluntary cuts by the end of September.

Meanwhile, Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA is preparing to resume operations once Trump reinstates export and operational permits for its partners, according to company sources. Oil swaps that would allow Venezuelan crude to be exported are expected to resume if licenses are granted.

In the Middle East, Yemen’s Houthi group announced on Sunday that it would target vessels belonging to companies dealing with Israeli ports, regardless of the vessels’ nationality, in what they called the fourth phase of their military operations against Israel over the Gaza war.