Copper prices rose on Monday, the first trading session of December, supported by stronger bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut as well as growing expectations of higher industrial-metal prices.

UBS expects copper to climb next year, citing tightening supply conditions due to ongoing mine disruptions, along with structurally strong long-term demand driven by electrification trends and investment in clean energy, according to a research note published last month.

In its latest revision, the bank raised its March 2026 price forecast by $750 per metric ton to $11,500, and increased its June and September 2026 targets by $1,000 each to $12,000 and $12,500. The bank also issued a new December 2026 target of $13,000 per ton.

UBS lifted its market-deficit projections to 230,000 tons for 2025, up from 53,000 previously, and to 407,000 tons for 2026, compared with an earlier estimate of 87,000. The bank noted that falling inventories and persistent supply risks will keep the market tight.

It added that this year’s mine disruptions — including production issues at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, a slow recovery in Chile, and recurring protests in Peru — underscore structural supply constraints likely to persist through 2026.

Freeport-McMoRan said last week it plans to resume output at Grasberg by July, following a fatal accident that halted operations two months earlier.

UBS also trimmed its forecast for refined-copper production growth to 1.2% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, citing declining ore grades and operational challenges.

Global copper demand is expected to grow 2.8% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by electric vehicles, renewable-energy installations, power-grid investment, and data-center expansion.

The bank said any short-term weakness in prices is likely to be temporary, recommending that investors maintain long positions in copper or use volatility-selling strategies.

In US trading, copper futures for March delivery rose 0.4% to $5.29 per pound as of 15:38 GMT.

Bitcoin fell sharply in Asian trading on Monday as the new month opened with renewed turbulence across the cryptocurrency market, following an incident at the decentralized finance platform Yearn Finance that sparked fresh concerns over liquidity.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped 5.3% to trade at $86,075.6 as of 01:07 a.m. ET (06:07 GMT).

Bitcoin slid to an intraday low of $85,638.3 over the past 24 hours and has now fallen more than 16% for the month of November.

The sell-off came after Yearn Finance said it was investigating an “incident” in its yETH liquidity pool. Reports indicated that a flaw had allowed an attacker to mint an extraordinarily large amount of yETH tokens, effectively flooding the pool with incorrect supply.

In simple terms, the exploit allowed the attacker to “create tokens out of thin air,” undermining confidence in the pool’s backing assets and prompting traders to rush for the exit.

The disruption triggered immediate volatility across bitcoin-linked assets, with other major cryptocurrencies also tumbling.

U.S. rate-cut bets in focus

The decline followed a steep monthly drop for bitcoin in November, with selling pressure persisting despite improving sentiment around U.S. monetary policy — which had supported risk assets late last month.

Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December strengthened sharply last week, driven by signs of cooling economic growth and easing inflationary pressures.

Traders are currently pricing an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December 9–10 meeting, compared with roughly 40% a week earlier. Although the prospect of easier monetary policy had initially helped steady crypto markets, the Yearn Finance incident overshadowed that optimism.

Adding to the uncertainty were comments from U.S. President Donald Trump over the weekend saying he already knows whom he will nominate as the next Federal Reserve chair — without revealing the name. The statement intensified speculation around potential candidates, including former White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, known for his dovish stance on monetary policy.

Crypto prices today: Ether down 6%, XRP drops more than 7%

Most major altcoins slumped on Monday amid a fresh wave of panic.

Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 5.7% to $2,826.92.

XRP, the third-largest token, dropped 7.3% to $2.03.

Oil prices rose by 1% on Monday after the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) halted exports following a major drone strike, while escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela added to supply concerns, and OPEC+ agreed to keep output levels unchanged for the first quarter of 2026.

Brent crude climbed by 71 cents, or 1.14%, to $63.09 a barrel as of 11:43 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 68 cents, or 1.16%, to $59.23.

CPC, which moves roughly 1% of global oil supplies, said on Saturday that it had suspended operations after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged a mooring point at its Russian Black Sea terminal. However, Chevron — one of CPC’s shareholders — said late Sunday that loading operations were still ongoing at the Russian port of Novorossiysk.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the attacks on CPC’s export terminal pushed oil higher because of reduced export volumes.

Ukraine also targeted two oil tankers en route to Novorossiysk.

OPEC and its allies had provisionally agreed to a temporary pause in early November, a move that slowed efforts to regain market share amid rising concerns about oversupply.

LSEG senior analyst Aayneh Pham said the market reacted positively to the news, adding: “For a while, the dominant narrative revolved around a surplus in global oil supply, so OPEC+ keeping its production target offered some relief and helped stabilize supply growth expectations for the coming months.”

Brent and WTI futures had closed lower on Friday for the fourth consecutive month — the longest losing streak since 2023 — as expectations of rising global output continued to weigh on prices.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that “the airspace over and around Venezuela” should be considered closed, injecting fresh uncertainty into the oil market, given the South American nation’s role as a major crude producer.

Trump said on Sunday that he had spoken with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro but did not provide further details.

The Japanese yen rose on Monday, supported by comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who hinted at a possible rate hike in December, while the dollar came under pressure as investors intensified their bets on a Federal Reserve cut this month.

Ueda said on Monday that the central bank will examine the “pros and cons” of raising interest rates at its upcoming December meeting, marking the strongest signal so far that a hike is possible this month. He added during a press conference that he will provide clearer guidance on the future rate-hike path once the policy rate reaches 0.75%, noting that the December decision will take into account wage data and other economic indicators.

These comments pushed the yen higher, sending the dollar down 0.4% to 155.51 yen.

Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC, said the stance “looks like preparation for a potential hike, making a December or January move a strong possibility,” and expects the BoJ to act this month. He added: “The question is whether this hike will be followed by another long pause. A stronger yen recovery will require firmer forward guidance.”

Traders raised the probability of a December hike after the yen fell last month to its weakest level in 10 months, intensifying pressure on the central bank to begin its tightening cycle.

Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG, said: “These remarks are the clearest signal yet that the BoJ is preparing to resume rate hikes this month, which aligns with our expectations. However, market participants remain cautious about fully pricing in an early move due to potential government resistance.”

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Sunday that the yen’s recent sharp swings and rapid weakening “do not clearly reflect fundamentals.”

Dollar weakness

Across broader markets, the dollar retreated as investors entered a critical month that could include the final rate cut of the year from the Federal Reserve, along with the potential confirmation of a more dovish successor to Chair Jerome Powell.

The euro climbed to a two-week high at $1.16155, while the British pound eased 0.2% to $1.3211 after recording its best week in more than three months, supported by renewed optimism following UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ budget announcement.

Markets are now pricing an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at next week’s Fed meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

What happens after December remains uncertain. Markets currently see limited chances of another cut before spring, while some analysts argue the December move could be a “hawkish cut” — a reduction accompanied by messaging that further easing is unlikely in the near term.

With investors assuming a December cut is almost guaranteed — and after a report indicating that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett may become the next Fed chair — the dollar continues to weaken, following its worst weekly performance in four months against a basket of major currencies.

Economists at Goldman Sachs wrote: “With the December meeting nearly fully priced for a 25-basis-point cut, we think attention will shift more toward the first-quarter meetings.” They added: “Division within the committee limits expectations for additional easing, but with a significant amount of labor-market data arriving before January, we believe markets are underpricing the odds of another cut in Q1.”

FX markets also returned to normal on Monday after a multi-hour outage last week on CME Group’s platform disrupted trading across stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies.

Bitcoin fell 5.7% to $85,949, while Ethereum dropped 6.4% to $2,828.41.