Copper consumption fell sharply short of expectations as China's period of peak industrial activity draws to a close, with manufacturing operating rates slipping to their lowest seasonal levels in years.

This marks yet another example of how quickly demand can retreat in the world’s largest consumer market for copper when prices rise too sharply. Global prices surged to record highs late last month following a series of disruptions at mines around the world.

ING commodity strategists Eva Manthey and Warren Patterson noted that Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, has raised its price forecasts for both this year and next.

Copper supply faces a wave of disruptions

Chile’s copper agency Cochilco said global supplies have been strained by disruptions, alongside lower interest rates, a weaker dollar, and a resilient global economy. The agency now expects average prices of 4.45 dollars per pound this year and 4.55 dollars in 2026, according to its quarterly report. Its previous projection had been 4.30 dollars per pound for both years.

The report added that copper supplies have been disrupted this year by a series of incidents, including an accident at the El Teniente mine in Chile last July.

Cochilco now expects zero production growth in Chile this year, after previously forecasting an increase of 1.5%. In 2026, Chilean output is projected to grow 2.5% to reach 5.6 million metric tons. However, the outlook depends heavily on El Teniente operating normally next year — something state-owned miner Codelco says is unlikely.

As for trading, copper futures for March delivery rose 0.2% to 5.10 dollars per pound at 14:29 GMT.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) posted a mild rebound on Thursday, trading near 92,000 dollars as stronger-than-expected earnings from Nvidia (NVDA) helped lift risk assets and pushed cryptocurrency-mining stocks higher. The move comes after a volatile week marked by record outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and a brief drop below the key 90,000-dollar level.

Nvidia’s upbeat results, released late Wednesday, temporarily eased concerns about a potential slowdown in the AI sector. The company reported third-quarter revenue of 57.01 billion dollars, up 62% year-on-year, and issued strong guidance for the fourth quarter.

CEO Jensen Huang said demand for AI chips continues to exceed supply, noting that “Blackwell sales are off the charts and cloud GPUs are fully sold out,” with computing needs accelerating across both AI training and inference.

The optimism triggered broad pre-market gains, particularly among Bitcoin-mining companies reliant on high-performance GPUs. Cipher Mining (CIFR) rose 11%, IREN (IREN) gained 8%, and Hut 8 (HUT) advanced about 6%.

The momentum helped stabilize Bitcoin after a sharp mid-week decline driven by heavy redemptions across spot ETFs. BlackRock’s (BLK) IBIT — the world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF — saw 523 million dollars in outflows on Wednesday, its largest single-day withdrawal since launching in January 2024, according to Farside data. The selling pushed Bitcoin to a local low near 88,400 dollars, erasing all its year-to-date gains.

Rising political pressure between Trump and the Fed intensifies monetary policy bets

The price swings come amid heightened political and monetary uncertainty in the United States. President Donald Trump escalated his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday for not cutting rates more aggressively, saying, “Frankly, I’d like to fire him.”

Reports indicate that Trump is seeking to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook and appoint his economic adviser, Stephen Miran, to the FOMC — a move that could give his administration a “super-majority” aligned with more forceful interest-rate cuts.

Analysts at Bitfinex warned that if Trump succeeds in reshaping the Fed in 2026, the central bank’s independence could be at risk, prompting markets to reprice the dollar’s status as a global reserve currency and the cost of long-term borrowing.

“From historical precedent to current tactics, Trump’s approach targets direct influence over rate-setting decisions,” analysts wrote. “The outcome would not be temporary volatility but a structural discount to institutional credibility. If the Fed is forced into aggressive easing before inflation is fully contained, the US economy risks entering an ‘early-recovery-followed-by-stagflation’ cycle. For global capital, the real danger lies in losing the last line of defense protecting US monetary policy.”

Oil prices rose on Thursday after a sharp decline in the previous session, supported by a larger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories and a broad rebound across risk assets.

Brent futures climbed 57 cents, or 0.9%, to 64.08 dollars a barrel by 11:01 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate gained 51 cents, or 0.9%, to 59.95 dollars.

The benchmarks recovered after falling nearly 2% in the prior session, following reports that the United States is renewing efforts to secure a framework to end the Russia–Ukraine war, a move that could bring more Russian barrels back into the market.

Global equity markets — which often move in tandem with oil — advanced on Thursday as investor sentiment improved after Nvidia delivered earnings that exceeded expectations.

Meanwhile, the deadline for US sanctions on dealings with Russia’s oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil expires on Friday, while Lukoil and any potential buyers of its extensive international portfolio have until 13 December to complete transactions.

On the demand side, oil prices drew support from a far larger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories, reflecting higher refinery runs amid strong margins and rising demand for US crude exports.

The Energy Information Administration reported that crude stocks fell by 3.4 million barrels to 424.2 million in the week ending 14 November, compared with analyst expectations for a 603,000-barrel decline.

However, US gasoline and distillate inventories rose for the first time in more than a month, signalling a slowdown in consumption.

Gains were capped by ongoing concerns about an oversupplied oil market and by the US dollar remaining near a six-month high, making dollar-priced commodities like oil more expensive for foreign buyers.

The dollar held on to its gains on Thursday after Federal Reserve minutes showed that a December rate cut is becoming less likely, while its strong rise against the yen prompted traders to question whether Japanese authorities might step in to halt their currency’s decline. The dollar climbed to 157.78 yen in late Asian trading, its highest level since January. The yen’s latest slide began after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said there had been no specific discussion on foreign-exchange markets during her meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.

The yen managed to find some stability as European trading began, with the dollar up 0.1% at 157.36 yen, though the Japanese currency remains down about 6% since Prime Minister Sana Takayishi became leader of the ruling party last month. The decline has come despite rising Japanese bond yields, as investors worry about the scale of borrowing needed to finance Takayishi’s stimulus plans. Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho in Asia, said investors must either believe in a “sell-Japan narrative” or accept that traditional relationships between economic variables have become unstable — referring to the yen’s weakness despite narrowing interest-rate differentials between the US and Japan.

After falling below 157 per dollar and approaching levels last seen at the start of the year, traders estimate that Japanese authorities may intervene near 160, or if additional sharp moves occur. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Thursday that recent movements had been “sharp, one-sided, and concerning.”

Fed minutes signal a December rate cut is unlikely

Globally, the euro, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and British pound fell against the dollar after the Federal Reserve’s October minutes showed that “many” participants already ruled out a December rate cut, while “several” still viewed a cut as likely. Bank of Singapore strategist Mo Seong Sim noted that in Fed language, “many” implies more than “several,” delivering a hawkish message supportive of the dollar.

In the United States, expectations for a December rate cut dropped to below 25%, after being nearly fully priced in just a month ago. The euro slipped 0.2% to 1.1515 dollars, its lowest in two weeks, while sterling steadied at 1.3060 dollars but remained near its lowest level since early November.

As a result, the dollar index — which measures the US currency against a basket of major peers — rose to 100.26, nearing the six-month high it reached in early November. The index had gained 0.5% on Wednesday after the release of the Fed minutes. The next key data point for the Fed — and therefore for the dollar — will be September’s nonfarm payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time (13:30 GMT), after its delay due to the government shutdown. Given the age of the data, the central question is whether the figures will be surprising enough to overshadow their staleness.

The Swiss franc also fell to a ten-day low of 0.8072 against the dollar, pressured both by dollar strength and strong Nvidia earnings, which boosted risk appetite and pulled investors away from the safe-haven currency.