Copper prices slipped during US trading on Monday, weighed by a slightly stronger dollar and growing bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut.

Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.2% to 10,780.5 dollars per metric ton as of 4:40 p.m. Mecca time.

Markets now assign a 78% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December, up from roughly 41% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch.

UBS sees structurally tighter supply and higher copper ahead

UBS expects copper prices to move higher next year, citing tightening supply conditions driven by persistent mine disruptions and strong long-term demand from electrification and clean-energy investment, according to a research note published Friday.

In its latest revision, the bank raised its March 2026 copper forecast by 750 dollars to 11,500 dollars per metric ton. Forecasts for June and September 2026 were lifted by 1,000 dollars to 12,000 and 12,500 dollars respectively, while a new December 2026 target was set at 13,000 dollars.

The bank also sharply increased its projected market deficit to 230,000 tons in 2025, up from 53,000 tons previously, and to 407,000 tons in 2026, compared with an earlier estimate of 87,000 tons — pointing to low inventories and ongoing supply risks.

UBS highlighted this year’s mine disruptions — including production issues at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, slower output recovery in Chile, and recurring protests in Peru — as evidence of structural supply constraints likely to persist through 2026.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.N) said last week it plans to resume output at Grasberg by July, following a fatal accident that halted operations two months earlier.

The bank cut its refined copper production growth forecasts to 1.2% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026, citing declining ore grades and operational challenges.

Global copper demand is expected to grow 2.8% in both 2025 and 2026, supported by electric vehicles, renewable energy, grid investment and data-center expansion.

UBS said any short-term weakness in copper prices is likely to be temporary, recommending holding long positions or using volatility-selling strategies.

In Shanghai, the most-active SCFcv1 contract ended daytime trading 0.09% higher at 86,080 yuan (12,112.68 dollars) per metric ton.

During US hours, March copper futures fell 0.5% to 5.06 dollars per pound as of 15:04 GMT.

Bitcoin posted a slight rebound on Monday after a difficult week, though the broader crypto market remained under pressure amid persistent institutional outflows and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy path heading into December.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was up 1.4% at 87,050.5 dollars as of 01:25 ET (06:25 GMT).

Bitcoin had fallen more than 10% last week, hitting a seven-month low near 80,000 dollars.

Continued ETF outflows extend institutional selling pressure

The token dipped to a 24-hour low of 88,610.4 dollars before recovering above 90,000 dollars.

Data showed that US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs logged another week of heavy redemptions, extending their losing streak to a fourth straight week. According to SoSoValue, these funds recorded 1.22 billion dollars in net outflows during the week ending November 21, bringing total redemptions over the past four weeks to about 4.34 billion dollars.

At the same time, trading volumes in spot Bitcoin ETFs surged to record levels, which analysts described as a sign of “institutional capitulation.” Weekly trading activity in these funds exceeded 40 billion dollars.

Fed uncertainty persists despite rising easing bets

Economic uncertainty continues to weigh on crypto assets. Market pricing now suggests roughly a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December, up from around 44% a week ago.

But despite rising expectations, many Fed officials remain cautious, warning that inflation is still elevated and the labor market remains resilient.

Without fresh catalysts, the crypto market may stay under pressure in the near term.

Uncertainty was also amplified by the recent US government shutdown, which delayed key economic releases. The absence of timely data has left markets “flying blind,” raising doubts about how aggressive Fed easing can realistically be.

Investors are now watching for crucial reports such as retail sales and the producer price index, due later this week.

Crypto prices today: modest gains in altcoins after a steep weekly pullback

Most major altcoins edged higher on Monday following sharp declines last week, though trading remained confined within narrow ranges.

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, rose 1.2% to 2,842.88 dollars.

XRP, the third-largest token by market value, climbed 1.7% to 2.07 dollars.

Oil prices held steady on Monday after slipping about 3% last week, as investors weighed the prospects of a US interest-rate cut against the possibility of a Ukraine peace deal that could ease sanctions on Russia, one of the world’s major producers.

The US and Ukraine were set to resume work on a revised peace plan ahead of the Thursday deadline set by President Donald Trump, after both sides agreed to adjust the earlier version that critics said tilted too far in Moscow’s favor.

Brent futures rose 12 cents, or 0.2%, to 62.68 dollars a barrel by 13:00 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate gained 11 cents, or 0.2%, to 58.17 dollars.

Jorge Montepeque, managing director at Onyx Capital Group, said: “The market is very focused on the macro picture — the Ukraine peace treaty and the US economy.”

Analysts are waiting for more clarity on negotiations between Washington and Kyiv.

Montepeque added that US sanctions on state-owned Rosneft and private-sector Lukoil, which took effect on Friday, would normally create supply concerns that push prices higher, but the market is preoccupied with the peace effort.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Sunday that the Thursday deadline may not be final.

A peace deal could pave the way for rolling back sanctions that have constrained Russian crude exports. Russia was the world’s second-largest crude producer in 2024, behind the United States, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Uncertainty around potential US rate cuts is another factor capping investor risk appetite.

Expectations for a December rate cut rose after New York Fed President John Williams hinted that the central bank may have room to ease in the near term.

Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet in New Delhi, said: “The prospect of a Fed rate cut in December could provide some balance to the current downward bias by supporting global risk appetite.”

She added: “Crude prices have already fallen about 17% this year, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment… At these lower levels, value-buying is expected to emerge gradually.”

The Japanese yen was the weakest major currency against the broadly softer US dollar on Monday as investors waited for any sign of official buying from Tokyo to slow the currency’s slide.

A national holiday in Japan reduced liquidity during the Asian session, keeping the yen down 0.3% at 156.89 per dollar and close to the ten-month low it hit last week.

The yen continues to face pressure from a combination of highly accommodative fiscal policy and some of the lowest interest rates in the world. It found brief support on Friday after rebounding from ten-month lows, following stronger verbal warnings from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.

Traders see a risk of official intervention somewhere between 158 and 162 per dollar, with the thin liquidity expected during the US Thanksgiving holiday later this week viewed as a potential window for action.

Nick Rees, head of macroeconomic research at Monex Europe, said: “The yen is currently caught between two forces: short-term rates are rising as the Bank of Japan continues tightening, while the long end of the yield curve is being pushed higher by broader financial-risk concerns.”

Rees added that markets are focusing more on Japan’s long-term structural risks rather than the short-term implications for the currency.

Takouji Aida, a private-sector member of a key government committee, told NHK on Sunday that Japan is capable of intervening actively in FX markets to mitigate the economic damage from a weak yen.

Rees noted that any intervention might slow USD/JPY’s climb but is unlikely to reverse it entirely, given that the fundamental forces behind the trend remain intact.

Euro rises as sterling holds steady ahead of UK budget

Elsewhere in FX markets, the euro rose 0.2% to 1.1531 dollars as traders renewed bets on a December Fed rate cut following comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who said there is room for further easing in the near term.

The euro showed little initial reaction to the updated peace-framework discussions between Kyiv and Washington, which build on and modify last week’s 28-point proposal.

The dollar index was steady at 100.15, with most major currencies hovering near recent lows.

Sterling was little changed at 1.3095 dollars ahead of Wednesday’s UK budget, where Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is expected to balance support for a slowing economy with demonstrating fiscal discipline.

The New Zealand dollar held at 0.5608 dollars after an 8% slide since July due to weakening economic prospects. Markets are almost fully pricing a 25-basis-point RBNZ rate cut on Wednesday, while expectations for another cut next year remain uncertain.

The Australian dollar traded at 0.6457 dollars as investors awaited Wednesday’s CPI release — the first full monthly inflation report. A Reuters poll showed core inflation likely holding at 3.6%.

Peter Dragicevich, APAC currency strategist at payments company Corpay, said: “A result like this, in our view, would reinforce the idea that the Reserve Bank of Australia may not cut rates again in this cycle.”