Copper prices declined on Monday as the U.S. dollar edged higher against most major currencies and markets tracked developments in global trade tensions.

Trump’s announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports pushed U.S. copper prices to record highs, but analysts expect prices to gradually retreat in the coming months as traders offload the large stockpiles they had built in anticipation of the new duties.

The tariff follows a U.S. Commerce Department investigation launched in February, which had been expected to result in a 25% duty. However, even the anticipation of the move prompted a stockpiling surge, with copper prices on the COMEX exchange rising 25% from January through last Monday.

Following Trump’s announcement on Tuesday, COMEX prices soared to an all-time high of $5.6820 per pound, or $12,526 per metric ton — over $2,920 more than the benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) price of around $9,600 per ton.

Expected Price Decline as U.S. Demand Slows

Tom Price, analyst at Panmure Liberum, stated: “Once the noise around Trump’s tariffs subsides, we expect U.S. copper prices to decline and converge with global prices, as American consumption is likely to be deferred.”

He noted that U.S. copper demand is weak, forecasting a 16% drop this year to 1.32 million tons from last year.

Part of the decline stems from tariff-related uncertainty, which has slowed economic growth. U.S. manufacturing data — from a sector heavily reliant on copper — shows the industry remains in contraction.

U.S. Copper Stockpiles Show Major Surplus

According to analysis by Macquarie, using trade data from January to May and June shipping figures, U.S. copper imports totaled around 881,000 metric tons in the first half of the year, while actual demand amounted to only 441,000 tons.

This leaves a surplus of 440,000 tons, split between 107,000 tons in visible COMEX storage and 333,000 tons in unreported inventories or pre-purchased stock held in industrial supply chains.

U.S. Inventories Rise While London’s Shrink

A large share of the surplus has been stored in COMEX warehouses, where copper inventories reached 221,788 short tons (about 201,203 metric tons) as of July 7 — up more than 127,000 short tons, or 135%, since late March when global shipments began arriving at U.S. ports.

Meanwhile, LME copper inventories have fallen 66% since mid-February, dropping to about 90,000 metric tons by late June — their lowest level since August 2023.

Some of the U.S. stock is held in free trade zones, meaning it has not yet cleared customs and can be more easily re-exported.

Copper stored in duty-paid COMEX warehouses would face more hurdles for re-export, but it's still possible. Duncan Hobbs, research director at Concord Resources, said: “There’s nothing stopping re-exported, customs-cleared copper… but it would require a financial incentive, such as a drop in the COMEX premium.”

Tariff Exemptions Add to Uncertainty

Another factor that could weigh on U.S. copper prices is the possibility of exemptions for certain countries. This could erode the COMEX premium, according to industry sources.

Chile is a strong candidate for exemption, accounting for 70% of U.S. copper imports in 2023 — about 646,000 metric tons, per Trade Data Monitor. The U.S. also has a trade surplus with Chile, making a political exemption more feasible.

Citi analysts, including Tom Mulqueen, expect countries like Canada, Chile, and Mexico to eventually face a reduced tariff of just 25%, as “core partners.”

Traders Face Hurdles Offloading Stockpiled Copper

For now, traders who rushed to get ahead of the tariffs are left holding some of the most expensive copper in the world — which may be hard to sell unless U.S. market premiums persist.

Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.1% to 97.9 at 16:09 GMT, reaching a high of 98.1 and a low of 97.7.

As for trading, September copper futures were up 1.2% at $5.53 per pound at 16:04 GMT.

Bitcoin soared to record highs against the U.S. dollar on Monday morning, as markets gear up for a critical week of crypto legislation in the United States, with several major bills slated for votes in Congress.

The cryptocurrency traded above $122,000 early Monday, up 3.3%, after hitting its highest price ever earlier in the day.

On a year-over-year basis, Bitcoin has more than doubled in value following U.S. President Donald Trump’s election victory.

Trump is known for his favorable stance on digital assets. He previously spoke about Bitcoin during his campaign and his family launched a crypto venture with its own token — a move that sparked ethical debate.

Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell, commented: “Donald Trump spoke about making America the global capital of crypto, and now the market is hoping those words turn into action.”

He added: “Bitcoin’s recent price action signals that investors and traders are expecting something big during this so-called ‘Crypto Week.’ The coin has risen nearly 10% in just five days — a clear sign of FOMO (fear of missing out), a pattern we see every time Bitcoin headlines dominate.”

He continued: “Crypto enthusiasts are convinced digital assets are the future of finance. And while there’s momentum from investors, governments, and corporations alike, the landscape remains unsettled, with more questions than answers.”

What Is “Crypto Week” in the United States?

This week, the U.S. Congress is expected to vote on a series of landmark bills that could shape the future of the digital asset market. According to investment platform AJ Bell, the most notable bills include:

1. The Clarity Act

Full name: The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act

This bill aims to provide a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, including cryptocurrencies.

2. The Genius Act

Full name: The Guiding Innovation for National Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act

This legislation would establish the first federal regulatory structure for stablecoins — cryptocurrencies pegged to traditional currencies like the U.S. dollar.

The Senate already passed the bill last month, marking a major milestone in crypto regulation. It now awaits House approval, and crypto advocates hope for swift passage.

The bill is significant because it would allow private companies to issue stablecoins. Amazon and Walmart have already expressed interest in becoming early issuers.

3. The CBDC Act

Full name: The Anti-Surveillance Central Bank Digital Currency Act

This bill aims to block the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC), amid concerns it could be used as a surveillance tool.

Bitcoin Rally Lifts Broader Crypto Market

- Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency, surged past the $3,000 mark, up 2.8% early Monday.

- Publicly traded crypto-related stocks also climbed in premarket trading:

– Shares of Strategy Incorporated (MSTR) — formerly MicroStrategy — jumped.

– Shares of Coinbase (COIN) also rose.

Silver prices rose in the European market on Monday, extending gains for the third consecutive day and successfully breaking above the $39-per-ounce barrier for the first time since 2011. The metal is now strongly poised to surpass the $40 threshold in the near term, amid heavy inflows and robust demand for the white metal.

Commodity and metal prices have entered a bullish awakening, fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of an expanded trade war and tariffs on copper and other metals, as China moves to boost its strategic reserves of key industrial materials.

The Price

Today’s Silver Price: Silver rose by 1.9% to $39.13 per ounce — the highest since September 2011 — from an opening level of $38.39, with the session low also at $38.39.

On Friday, Silver settled up by roughly 3.75%, marking its second straight daily gain, driven by Trump’s trade threats.

Last week, The metal rose 4.0%, its second consecutive weekly gain.

Strong Demand

Silver has jumped more than 8% since the start of July and is on track for a third straight monthly gain, supported by strong industrial demand as well as growing retail interest, with the metal seen as undervalued compared to gold, which continues to trade near historical highs.

Industrial Demand

Silver is widely used in green technology sectors such as solar panels, electric vehicles, and electronics, due to its excellent conductivity.

Some global forecasts suggest that the solar energy sector could consume up to 30% of the world’s annual silver production by 2030, as each solar panel typically requires about 20 grams of silver.

Global industrial demand has already hit record levels, with expectations of reaching 710 million ounces by 2025, potentially fueling further price increases in the second half of this year.

Chinese Demand

Recent positive data from Beijing has revived hopes of an economic rebound in China, which would boost demand for metals and commodities in the world’s largest consumer market.

Chinese authorities have recently rolled out a series of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to support the world’s second-largest economy and steer it out of a prolonged slowdown.

Retail Demand

Retail investors, seeking financial assets to hedge against risks stemming from the global shift toward looser monetary policy, increasingly view silver as the most cost-effective and undervalued safe haven.

The current rally in silver is being driven in part by growing awareness among retail traders that the white metal remains significantly underpriced compared to gold, which continues to hover near its historic highs.

Oil prices rose on Monday, hitting a three-week high, as investors awaited further U.S. sanctions on Russia that could impact global supply. Strong Chinese crude imports also supported prices.

Brent crude futures climbed by 58 cents, or 0.8%, to $70.94 per barrel by 09:00 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 59 cents, or 0.9%, to $69.04 per barrel.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said: “Higher crude imports into China and market expectations surrounding an upcoming announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump on Russia are providing additional support to prices.”

Trump promises a “major announcement” on Russia

Trump said on Sunday that he would send Patriot missile systems to Ukraine and indicated that he would issue a “major statement” regarding Russia on Monday, expressing frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the lack of progress in ending the war in Ukraine.

In an attempt to pressure Moscow into serious negotiations, a bipartisan U.S. bill to impose new sanctions on Russia gained momentum in Congress last week. At the same time, European Union representatives were close to reaching an agreement on the 18th package of sanctions against Russia, which is expected to include a reduction in the price cap on Russian oil, according to four European sources following a meeting on Sunday.

China drives the market with strong import support

Customs data released Monday showed that China’s crude oil imports rose by 7.4% year-on-year in June to reach 12.14 million barrels per day — the highest level since August 2023.

JPMorgan’s research team said in a client note: “China is likely to continue building its oil inventories, but with storage nearing 95% of the peak accumulation recorded in 2020, these stocks may begin to appear in visible Western market locations — critical zones in price formation — potentially putting downward pressure on prices.”

Weekly gains amid tightening market expectations

Brent crude posted a 3% weekly gain last week, while WTI rose by about 2.2%, following comments from the International Energy Agency that the global oil market may be tighter than it appears.

Investors are also closely watching developments in trade negotiations between the U.S. and its key partners, especially amid rising tensions from Washington’s recent protectionist policies and tariff announcements.