Copper prices fell on Tuesday despite a decline in the dollar against most major currencies, due to expectations of production growth in Chile.

Chile, which represents about a quarter of global copper production, expected its output to expand during this year despite the challenges facing two of its largest mines, providing some relief to a global market suffering from tight supply.

A fatal accident at the largest mine of state-owned Codelco, in addition to problems in mine waste at a project run by Teck Resources Ltd., complicated Chile’s efforts to reach its annual target estimated at about 5.6 million metric tons. However, the giant Escondida mine of BHP recorded an 11% increase in output in the first half compared to the same period last year, while the Collahuasi mine is preparing to exit from a period of low-grade ore production, and the El Salvador mine, after its redevelopment, has begun to increase its operating capacity.

Mining Minister Aurora Williams said, in an interview from her office in downtown Santiago, that she still expects growth this year and next, reaching a record level of 6 million tons by 2027. She added that this would be a remarkable achievement for a country whose production fell to its lowest level in 20 years in 2023, at a time when companies are struggling to renew old mines and find new deposits that are difficult to develop. She also pointed out that the outlook for the metal is improving in the long term.

Williams said: “I believe that production will increase, and that Chile will be able to enhance its participation in the global market. Market indicators show more supply in the future.”

This comes with the rise in global demand for copper used in electrical wires, driven by the transition toward clean energy and the construction of more data centers to operate artificial intelligence technologies.

But the copper market has previously experienced disappointments from Chile, as the state copper agency Cochilco expected several years ago that production would exceed 7 million tons by now, which has not yet been achieved. And Codelco remains a key player in that equation, as it tries to compensate for years of weak investments.

Expectations have recently improved with the conclusion of two integration deals expected to add nearly 300,000 tons to the country’s total output, according to company estimates. Codelco is putting the final touches on a merger between the Andina mine and Anglo American’s Los Bronces mine, while Anglo and Teck are working on a similar deal to merge the Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca mines. In addition, BHP and Lundin Mining Corp. have a major project on the border with Argentina, and BHP and Rio Tinto are cooperating in promising exploration projects with Codelco.

The minister considered that the merger agreement between Anglo and Teck represents a “positive signal” about the vitality of Chile’s mining industry and the global copper market.

Regarding the recovery of the El Teniente mine from a tunnel collapse that killed six workers, Williams said that Codelco may have to use other means — such as more automation — to reach deeper levels of deposits, depending on the results of the investigation being conducted by the Sernageomin authority.

She added: “Chile faces the challenge of developing underground mining at increasing depths. And if there are risks, in a country where safety is a priority, we will have to look for alternative mechanisms.”

On the other hand, the dollar index fell by 0.5% by 16:15 GMT to 96.8 points, and recorded the highest level at 97.3 points and the lowest level at 96.7 points.

As for trading, copper futures for December delivery fell by 0.2% to $4.70 per pound at 16:10 GMT.

Bitcoin prices moved in a narrow range on Tuesday, extending recent gains amid growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week. However, most altcoins underperformed, while concerns over the sustainability of large corporate investments in digital assets capped Bitcoin’s upside.

Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $115,300 by 13:19 GMT, after gaining about 5% over the past week.

Bitcoin in Waiting Mode Ahead of the Fed

The world’s largest cryptocurrency has recovered part of the steep losses suffered between mid-August and early September, but remains well below its August peak. The market has faced heavy profit-taking alongside mounting worries about the growing reliance of corporates on their treasuries as a vehicle to hold Bitcoin.

Those concerns intensified after Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) was rejected for inclusion in the S&P 500, prompting JPMorgan analysts to warn that the lack of such index entries undermines the long-term viability of the corporate treasury approach. This trend has left the crypto sector lagging behind the rally in other high-risk assets, particularly equities.

Fed Decision in Focus

Digital asset markets are now bracing for the Fed’s policy meeting, with CME FedWatch data showing a 99.6% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut and just 0.4% for no change. Lower interest rates typically boost risk assets like cryptocurrencies by increasing market liquidity, but uncertainty remains over the longer-term easing path given persistent inflation concerns. Despite growing pressure from the White House, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a cautious stance without committing to further cuts.

Strategy Expands Its Bitcoin Bet

In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Strategy disclosed the purchase of an additional 525 Bitcoin between September 8 and 14, worth about $60.2 million at an average price of $114,562 each.

This brings the company’s holdings to 638,985 Bitcoin, with a market value near $73.4 billion, compared to a total acquisition cost of $47.2 billion, or an average of $73,913 per coin including fees and expenses.

Executive Chairman and co-founder Michael Saylor said the holdings now account for more than 3% of Bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million coins. At current prices, the company sits on paper gains of roughly $26 billion.

Silver prices rose in the European market on Tuesday, extending gains for the fifth consecutive session and hitting a fresh 14-year high. The metal is now on track to surpass the $43 per ounce threshold for the first time since 2011, supported by the broad decline in U.S. dollar levels.

Later today, the Federal Reserve kicks off its key monetary policy meeting, with decisions due Wednesday. Markets broadly expect at least a 25-basis-point rate cut.

Price Overview

• Silver prices today: The metal rose 0.25% to $42.78 an ounce — the highest since September 2011 — up from an opening level of $42.68, after touching an intraday low of $42.35.

• On Monday, silver settled 1.2% higher, marking a fourth straight daily gain, aided by weaker U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.

U.S. Dollar

The dollar index fell 0.3% on Tuesday, extending losses into a second session and hitting a 10-week low at 97.04, reflecting continued weakness of the U.S. currency against a basket of global peers.

As is well known, a weaker U.S. dollar makes dollar-denominated precious metals more attractive to holders of other currencies. The current drop stems from active selling of the greenback ahead of the Fed’s expected 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday.

This comes as President Donald Trump continues to pressure Fed policymakers for deeper cuts. In a social media post on Monday, Trump urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to deliver a “larger” reduction in the benchmark rate, citing risks to the U.S. housing market.

Federal Reserve

The Fed’s two-day meeting begins later today, with decisions due Wednesday. Markets expect a 25-basis-point cut, while policymakers’ statement, economic projections, and Powell’s remarks will provide stronger clues on the likelihood of further easing later this year.

Rate Expectations

• According to CME’s FedWatch tool: markets are pricing a 100% chance of a 25-basis-point cut this week, and a 4% chance of a larger 50-point move.

• For October, rate-cut expectations remain fully priced at 100% for 25 basis points, with just 3% odds for a deeper 50-point cut.

Oil prices held steady on Tuesday as markets weighed the potential disruption of Russian supplies following Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries against expectations of an imminent U.S. interest-rate cut.

Brent crude futures slipped 20 cents, or 0.3%, to $67.24 a barrel by 08:19 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 19 cents, or 0.3%, to $63.11. Brent had settled 45 cents higher at $67.44 on Monday, while WTI gained 61 cents to $63.30.

Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russian energy infrastructure in a bid to weaken Moscow’s war capabilities as peace talks stall. JPMorgan analysts noted: “Targeting an export hub like Primorsk is primarily aimed at curbing Russia’s ability to sell oil abroad, with direct implications for export markets.” They added: “More importantly, such attacks signal a growing willingness to disrupt global oil markets, which could add further upward pressure on prices.”

Goldman Sachs estimated that Ukrainian strikes disrupted about 300,000 barrels per day of Russian refining capacity in August and early September. The bank added that “despite rising uncertainty around secondary tariffs and additional sanctions, we assume Russian output will decline only slightly, with Asian buyers still showing willingness to take in Russian crude.”

Separately, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that Washington would not impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods to pressure Beijing to halt purchases of Russian oil unless European nations also imposed similar measures on China and India, the two largest buyers of Russian crude.

Investors are also focused on the Federal Reserve’s September 16–17 meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to deliver a rate cut. While lower borrowing costs typically support fuel demand, analysts have expressed caution over the broader resilience of the U.S. economy.

Attention is also on U.S. inventory data. Walter Chancellor, energy strategist at Macquarie Group, said in a client note he expects U.S. crude stockpiles to have fallen by 6.4 million barrels in the week to September 12, after rising by 3.9 million barrels the previous week.

A Reuters survey on Monday showed analysts anticipate U.S. crude and gasoline inventories fell last week, while distillate stocks likely rose.