Commerzbank analysts said copper outperformed the rest of the base metals this week, supported by improving economic sentiment linked to the Strait of Hormuz, alongside ongoing problems in the global mining sector.

The strategists explained that copper prices on the London Metal Exchange rose by around 5% this week, significantly outperforming other industrial metals.

They noted that part of this rise was driven by improving expectations regarding a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which reduces the risks of a sharp slowdown in the global economy and therefore weaker demand for copper.

The report added that reopening the strait could also help ease the sulfuric acid shortage crisis, which may positively affect copper production.

Regarding supply, data showed that Chile’s copper ore production rose to 434,300 tons during March after recording its lowest level in nine years at 378,300 tons in February.

However, compared with the same period last year, the annual production decline accelerated to 9%, versus a 4.9% decline recorded in February.

The bank’s analysts also pointed to continuing production risks in Indonesia, where the Grasberg mine is operating at only 40% to 50% of capacity.

The report stressed that these developments once again demonstrate that the weakest link in global copper production remains mining operations and copper ore output.

Although the International Copper Study Group expects mine production to rise by 1.6% this year, Commerzbank analysts warned against overlooking the risks surrounding those forecasts, noting that they could directly affect global copper production and prices.

Bitcoin traded near key resistance levels on May 5, while traders monitored on-chain data, spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and overall market structure for signs that the recent decline may be nearing its end.

First test for a Bitcoin bottom signal

Bitcoin was trading near $80,870 as market analysts focused on a set of “realized price” levels positioned above the current market price.

These levels are now viewed as critical zones that could determine whether the market has successfully formed a bottom after months of pressure.

Data published by analyst “IT Tech” showed that investors from three different time periods remain in a loss position.

The first group includes Bitcoin buyers from the past three to six months, whose average realized purchase price stands at $88,880, now viewed as the first major resistance level above the market.

The second group, consisting of investors who bought between 12 and 18 months ago, has an average purchase price near $93,450.

The largest pressure zone sits even higher, as investors who bought between six and 12 months ago hold an average realized price of $111,850, around 29% above the current spot price.

These levels are important because many traders who bought during previous rallies may seek to exit once prices return to their entry levels, creating significant selling pressure above the market during any recovery attempt.

“IT Tech” said that confirming a true market bottom requires Bitcoin to reclaim the $88,880 level and maintain trading above it.

He explained that a temporary breakout would not be enough, as traders want to see buyers maintain strength above that level before considering the correction fully over.

For now, analysts believe that any rallies between $85,000 and $88,000 may continue attracting selling pressure from investors attempting to exit positions without losses, keeping the market cautious despite improving sentiment.

At the same time, some technical analysts believe market structure has already started shifting positively.

Trader “CW” said Bitcoin completed a successful retest after breaking out of a convergence pattern, adding that previous cycles showed similar behavior before new rallies began.

Convergence pattern supports bullish momentum

Technical traders are also focusing on liquidity movements and breakout structure as Bitcoin attempts to recover from recent lows.

Market analyst “Ali Charts” said Bitcoin appears to have cleared a large area of short-position liquidity between $80,000 and $84,000.

This could help reduce selling pressure from traders who had been betting on further declines during the recent correction.

According to the analysis, the next major liquidity zones now sit below current prices at $75,000, $73,000, and $70,000.

More than $55 million in liquidity is concentrated around these levels, creating two possible market scenarios.

If Bitcoin manages to maintain current support and break above the $88,000 area, traders may view that as confirmation that the market has returned to an upward trend.

However, if prices fail to hold current levels, Bitcoin could decline again toward lower liquidity zones, where buyers may once again attempt to defend support levels.

Bitcoin ETF flows boost market sentiment

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows continued supporting market confidence this week.

Data published by “Wu Blockchain” showed that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $46.33 million on May 6, marking the fifth consecutive day of positive inflows.

Spot Ethereum ETFs also continued recording positive flows, attracting $11.57 million in new investments during the same period.

Investors closely monitor cryptocurrency ETF flows because they reflect institutional demand entering the market through regulated investment products.

Consecutive positive inflows often help improve market sentiment, especially during periods of uncertainty regarding price direction.

Although ETF demand alone may not be sufficient to push Bitcoin above major resistance levels, continued inflows can still provide support during consolidation phases.

For now, traders remain focused on the $88,000 level, as a clear breakout and sustained trading above it could strengthen bets that the market has successfully formed a price bottom.

Until that happens, analysts believe caution remains necessary despite improving momentum signals.

Oil prices trimmed early gains on Friday, one day after renewed fighting near the Strait of Hormuz raised fresh questions about the future of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran.

Brent crude futures rose by 22 cents to $100.28 per barrel by 09:47 GMT, after earlier climbing by as much as 3%.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures also rose by 5 cents to $94.86 per barrel.

Despite the limited gains, both benchmark crudes remain on track for weekly losses exceeding 7%.

The Gulf witnessed clashes between US and Iranian forces, while the United Arab Emirates came under new attacks, as Washington awaited Tehran’s response to a US proposal aimed at ending the conflict, which began with joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28.

Later, US President Donald Trump told reporters that the ceasefire remains in place, attempting to downplay the latest exchange of fire.

John Evans, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said: “There are many important questions, such as how quickly supplies from Gulf countries can recover, the state of inventories as the peak gasoline season approaches, and the shape of sanctions after any settlement.”

He added: “But none of these issues can be addressed before reaching a long-term resolution to the hostilities.”

Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analytics firm Vanda Insights, said: “The US administration continues to overpromote the prospects of de-escalation, while optimistic markets are embracing that narrative.”

She added: “What is interesting is that every rebound in prices comes gradually and incompletely, making these misleading moves somewhat effective.”

In a separate development, Reuters reported on Thursday that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating $7 billion worth of oil trades executed before major Iran war-related announcements made by Trump.

Reuters explained that most of these trades were short positions — bets on falling prices — and were executed on the Intercontinental Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange before Trump’s statements regarding delaying attacks, announcing a ceasefire, or making other changes to US policy toward Iran, all of which later contributed to declines in oil prices.

The US dollar edged lower on Friday after renewed clashes between the United States and Iran, despite US President Donald Trump confirming that the ceasefire remains in place.

The two sides have exchanged intermittent fire since the ceasefire took effect on April 7, with Iran targeting locations in Gulf countries, including the United Arab Emirates.

With oil prices rising only modestly, investors remained cautiously optimistic about the possibility of a quick resolution to the conflict, amid the largely fragile truce and reports indicating that talks between Washington and Tehran are continuing.

Analysts noted that investor positioning in currency markets has returned to historical averages and is no longer supporting the dollar as strongly as it did a few weeks ago.

Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, said: “The hope for traders betting on high-risk assets remains that China will pressure the United States into reaching some form of agreement in the Gulf before the expected Trump-Xi summit on May 14 and 15.”

He added that “the outlook for the dollar now appears clearly two-sided, with stock market reactions potentially having a greater impact on the US currency than fluctuations in oil prices.”

European stocks declined, while US stock futures rose by 0.30% after the S&P 500 index fell 0.38% on Thursday.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of major currencies, declined by 0.14% to 98.195 points after earlier this week recording 97.623 points, its lowest level since February 27, one day before the outbreak of the war.

Investors had rushed toward the dollar as a safe haven while selling currencies of oil-dependent economies such as Japan and eurozone countries following the rise in oil prices after Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Markets are also awaiting the release of the US nonfarm payrolls report later on Friday. Pesole said it may require “an exceptional number, particularly one weak enough, to generate a real move in dollar volatility.”

The euro rose by 0.16% to $1.1743, heading toward ending the week with slight gains.

The yen supported by intervention risks

Traders remained focused on the Japanese yen following recent interventions and verbal warnings from Tokyo, which have limited sharp selloffs in the Japanese currency. The yen remained almost stable at 156.85 against the dollar, heading toward ending the week relatively unchanged.

Japan’s top currency diplomat said on Thursday that Tokyo faces no restrictions regarding the number of times it can intervene in currency markets and that it remains in daily contact with US authorities, signaling the Japanese government’s determination to defend the yen.

Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, said: “Japanese intervention, in the current environment of rising energy prices and yields, can only act as a seatbelt slowing the yen’s decline, but it cannot fully save it.”

He added that unless economic and technical conditions change, the yen is likely to continue testing the Bank of Japan’s willingness to intervene.

In Britain, the pound rose against both the euro and the dollar on Friday after local election results so far confirmed expectations that the Labour Party would suffer significant losses, prompting investors to focus on the future of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

The British pound climbed by 0.26% to $1.3584.

The Australian dollar also rose to $0.7221, while the New Zealand dollar traded at $0.5943, with both currencies heading toward weekly gains supported by improving risk appetite over recent days.