The two-week ceasefire in the war with Iran has helped ease some of the macroeconomic pessimism that was surrounding the copper market, but there may be a larger problem facing those optimistic about rising prices. China, the world's largest consumer of copper, has shown that it is not ready to pay high prices for physical metal like those seen in January, when the three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange jumped to its highest nominal level ever at $14,527.50 per metric ton. 

China's net imports of refined copper fell to 125,350 tons in February, which is the lowest monthly level since April 2011, according to data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics, which compiles trade data from official customs figures. This decline is a natural reaction from buyers to high prices in any commodity market, but China's influence in determining copper prices is gradually increasing thanks to its growing domestic production capabilities. 

Declining imports and rising exports 

China's copper imports began to slow down since September, when the copper price on the London Metal Exchange exceeded the level of $10,000 per ton and began to rise toward its peak in January. 

Inbound shipments declined further during the first two months of 2026 to reach 454,000 tons, a decrease of 25% compared to the same period in 2025. 

At the same time, Chinese smelters intensified their exports, taking advantage of high prices. Outbound shipments rose to 172,000 tons during January and February compared to only 49,000 tons in the same period last year. 

Thus, China's net draw of copper from the rest of the world amounted to only 283,000 tons during the months of January and February combined, which is the weakest start to any year since 2006. 

It is likely that some exports, especially those destined for Europe and the United States, came from Chinese bonded warehouse inventories, as traders tried to fill gaps in supply chains that resulted from the U.S. trade war last year which led to the flow of metal to the United States. 

But Chinese-branded copper also flowed directly into London Metal Exchange warehouses in South Korea and Taiwan. 

The amount of Chinese copper registered in delivery contracts at the exchange rose from 87,475 tons at the end of December to 155,600 tons at the end of February, according to the exchange's monthly report. 

In fact, the large shifts in Chinese copper trade largely explain why London Metal Exchange inventories rose to 385,275 tons, a level that exceeds the peak of 2018 and returns to levels last seen in 2013. 

Significant increase in inventories 

What is striking, despite the sharp decline in imports, is the size of the seasonal increase in copper inventories inside China this year. 

Usually, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories rise during the Lunar New Year holiday period, but the increase this year was much larger than usual. 

The exchange's inventories peaked at 433,500 tons in early March, compared to a peak of 268,300 tons during the holiday period last year. The previous seasonal record was 380,000 tons in 2020 when the holiday coincided with lockdowns related to the COVID-19 pandemic in China. 

Chinese buyers have now returned to the market, and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have fallen to 301,000 tons, but it is still a large amount that should be consumed before the need to increase imports. 

The Yangshan copper premium, which is a key indicator of immediate demand for imports, also saw its usual post-holiday rise. Local data provider Shanghai Metals Market estimated the premium over the London Metal Exchange base price at $65 per ton, up from $20 in January, but it is still lower than the level of $89 recorded in the same period last year. 

Industrial activity in China has expanded for four consecutive months, but the impact of this on the copper market remained limited due to high inventory levels. 

China's increasing power in the market 

China's growing ability to resist high prices depends on the continuous expansion of domestic copper smelting capacity. 

China's production of refined copper rose by 9% on a year-on-year basis in 2025, which is equivalent to an increase of about one million tons of metal, according to estimates by Macquarie Bank. 

Chinese smelters also succeeded in consistently outperforming their Western counterparts to obtain raw materials in a market suffering from a shortage of copper concentrates. 

Macquarie Bank estimates that global mine production rose by a modest 1.8% in 2025, while China's imports of copper concentrates increased by 7.8% during the same period. 

Imports of recyclable copper, which is another potential source for feeding smelters, also rose by 4% on a year-on-year basis. 

China's ability to secure the raw materials necessary to support its growing self-sufficiency in refined copper production has come at the expense of other producers. Production of Western smelters fell by 5.1% in 2025, according to estimates by Macquarie Bank. 

This continuous shift in production power strengthens China's ability to resist high prices, whether through reducing imports or increasing exports. 

If the war with Iran witnesses a real de-escalation, it is likely that those optimistic about rising copper prices will return strongly to the market. However, China is not expected to move according to the scenario these people are betting on.

Predictive market data indicates a 67% probability that the price of Bitcoin will drop below $55,000 during 2026, with a 43% probability of it retreating below the $45,000 level. With declining liquidity and the emergence of bearish technical signals, analysts see that the digital currency may head toward a range between $47,000 and $38,000 during the coming months.

The current price of Bitcoin is around $71,200, while estimates indicate that the downward cycle may continue for about six months. The key support levels being monitored by traders include the $47,000 range and then $38,000.

Data from prediction platforms such as Polymarket shows an increase in trader expectations regarding a Bitcoin retreat, as a growing number of them are betting on the price falling to lower levels during 2026. Markets are currently pricing in high probabilities of a decline, including a 67% chance of the price falling below $55,000 and a 43% chance of it falling below $45,000.

At the same time, several factors such as weak liquidity, negative chart patterns, and the historical behavior of market cycles indicate that Bitcoin may not have reached its bottom yet.

Some analysts believe that the probability of a price drop is due to five main factors. The first is the decline in liquidity in the cryptocurrency market, as lower trading volumes lead to weak buying pressure, which increases the chances of a sharp drop in prices. Analyst Jason Pizzino said that liquidity is the lifeblood of markets, and as it dries up, the market becomes more fragile and susceptible to sudden negative movements.

The second factor consists of the repetition of previous bear market patterns. Bitcoin seems to be following a pattern seen in previous downward cycles such as 2014, 2018, and 2022, where short rallies often create a temporary wave of optimism before the market resumes a strong decline. Pizzino explained that this pattern has repeated in almost every bear market, expecting it to repeat once again.

The third factor relates to technical signals, as indicators such as the Stochastic RSI show bearish signals indicating that Bitcoin may be entering the final stage of its decline. Historically, when this signal appears, it is followed by a decrease ranging between 30% and 40% before the market finds its bottom, which could place the potential bottom between $48,000 and $53,000 in mid-2026.

The fourth factor is linked to the long-term technical structure, as Fibonacci channel analysis indicates that the currency may witness a deeper correction. In previous cycles, similar patterns led to declines reaching 70%, making the $47,000 level an initial technical target, with the possibility of the decline extending to $38,000 in the worst-case scenario.

The fifth factor consists of what some traders describe as the "second deception" pattern or the bull trap, where short-term rallies may mislead traders before a larger retreat occurs. Trader Linton Worm said that the downward trend will remain dominant unless the price can exceed the $76,000 level with strong trading volumes.

Looking ahead, analysts propose two potential scenarios. The most likely scenario consists of the price failing to break the range of $74,000 to $76,000, which may push it to retreat toward $50,000 and then $47,000, with the possibility of the decline extending to $38,000. The alternative scenario requires a strong breakout of the $76,000 level supported by significant momentum, which could invalidate the bearish expectations and restore the upward trend.

Oil prices are heading to record their largest weekly loss since last June, despite the slight gains achieved on Friday, amid renewed concerns regarding supplies from Saudi Arabia and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. 

Brent crude futures rose 56 cents, or 0.58%, to reach $96.48 per barrel by 09:20 GMT. 

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also rose 65 cents, or 0.66%, to $98.52 per barrel. 

However, both contracts have lost about 11% to 12% this week after Iran and the United States agreed on Tuesday to a two-week truce mediated by Pakistan. 

But fighting continued regardless, and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely restricted, which kept futures prices near the $100 per barrel level and pushed prices in the physical market to record levels. 

Shipping traffic through the strait remains less than 10% of its normal levels, after Tehran imposed its control by warning ships against leaving its territorial waters. 

Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, said that the strait is still practically under severe restrictions, and that the operation of the global oil system is far from normal, noting that futures markets are pricing in a partial return to normalcy, while the physical market reflects a sharp shortage in supplies. 

An official in Tehran told Reuters on April 7 that Iran is seeking to impose fees on ships for crossing the strait as part of a peace agreement, a proposal that was met with rejection from Western leaders and from the United Nations shipping agency. 

This vital maritime corridor for oil and gas flows has effectively been closed due to the conflict that began on February 28 when the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. 

Prices rose on Friday after the official Saudi Press Agency reported that attacks on Saudi energy facilities reduced the Kingdom's production capacity by about 600,000 barrels per day, and also reduced flows of the East-West pipeline by about 700,000 barrels per day. 

According to investment bank JPMorgan, about 50 infrastructure assets in the Gulf have been damaged as a result of drone and missile strikes during the nearly six weeks since the start of the conflict, leading to the halt of about 2.4 million barrels per day of refining capacity. 

Prices declined slightly on Friday after Lebanon announced its intention to participate in a meeting with representatives from the United States and Israel in Washington next week to discuss a ceasefire declaration in the parallel war that Israel is waging against Iran's Hezbollah allies inside the country.

The dollar declined on Friday and is heading to record its largest weekly drop since January, as investors sell safe-haven assets amid optimism that oil shipments may resume if the truce in the Gulf holds. 

The dollar had risen strongly in March as one of the most prominent safe havens, after the American and Israeli war on Iran led to a jump in oil prices and a decline in stocks and gold, while concerns regarding inflation put pressure on bonds. 

But since the agreement on a fragile truce on Tuesday, investors have begun to abandon those positions. 

The euro rose by 1.6% this week to reach $1.1712, while the British pound climbed by 1.9% since Monday to reach $1.344. 

The risk-sensitive currencies of Australia and New Zealand are also heading toward weekly gains of approximately 3% against the dollar, with the Australian dollar trading at slightly over 70 cents. 

Movements in the Asian and European sessions were limited on Friday. U.S. inflation data is scheduled for release later today, but the market trend may depend more heavily on the results of peace talks scheduled for the weekend between the United States and Iran in Islamabad. 

Jason Wong, senior strategist at BNZ Bank in Wellington, said: "Investors were buying the U.S. dollar when the war was in its most tense stages, and now they are selling it as the probability of a worst-case scenario recedes." 

He added that removing that extreme risk thanks to the truce is important from a sentiment perspective, even if the truce itself appears unstable, noting that the mood in the markets could change quickly if the peace talks anticipated over the weekend do not achieve progress. 

Fragile truce 

Wong said that if the talks yield positive results, it will be negative for the dollar, but if the results of the talks are poor by Monday and ship movements remain limited, conditions could flip quickly. 

In the Strait of Hormuz, there were no significant signs of improvement in the situation. During the first 24 hours of the truce, only one petroleum product tanker and five bulk carriers crossed the corridor, which used to receive about 140 ships per day before the war. 

As for the Japanese yen, which has been under pressure for years due to low interest rates in Japan and its sensitivity to high oil prices, it rose slightly from its lowest levels against the dollar, but it did not achieve significant gains, and it was also sold against other currencies, indicating continued weak demand for it. 

The yen fell to 159.19 against the dollar on Friday, while the U.S. dollar index declined by 0.1%, making it down by about 1.4% since the beginning of the week. 

As for the Chinese yuan, which has not seen a major decline since the outbreak of the war with Iran on February 28, it is heading to record its largest weekly gains in 15 months and is trading at its strongest levels since 2023. 

Data released on Friday showed that factory-gate prices in China rose for the first time in three years, in a sign that real inflation may begin to appear after a long period of facing deflation. 

Lynn Song, an economist at ING Bank, said: "The Chinese yuan was one of the surprise winners in the Iran war, even though China is the largest oil importer in the world." 

She added that some market participants have begun re-evaluating the "China risk premium" in light of increasing uncertainty elsewhere in the world, which has made China appear more stable in the eyes of investors.