Trending: Oil | Gold | BITCOIN | EUR/USD | GBP/USD

Euro holds ahead of ECB decision and Draghi's speech

Economies.com
2019-09-12 07:33AM UTC

Euro stabilized against US dollar near a 1-week low today, on investors' aversion to building new positions ahead of the reveal of the ECB monetary policy decisions and Draghi's speech.

 

As of 7:04 GMT, EUR/USD rose by $1.1015, from the opening of $1.1009, with a high of $1.1017 and a low of of $1.1005.

 

Euro fell yesterday by 0.3% against US dollar, its second daily loss, as it fell to the lowest level in a week by $1.0985.

 

Euro fell by more than 3% against dollar since the first of july, and hit the lowest level in 28 months at $1.0925, with a drastic fall in economic activities in europe, which increased odds that more stimulus measures might take place by the European Central Bank.

 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) urged the ECB last week to add financial stimulus, and also warned the european region of the current problems, in addition to UK's exit from the european union and italy's debts crisis.

 

Christine Lagarde, the most likely candidate for heading the ECB, said last August that the bank still has a chance to lower interest rates despite its risks for the monetary stability in europe.

 

While Mario Draghi stated that monetary policy makers didn't discuss lowering the interest rates on the july meeting, and the bank is ready to lower interest rates this September, while considering other monetary policy easing options.

 

Reuters quoted sources that said the the government bonds purchase program and monetary policy instructions may be revealed in the next ECB meeting this September. 

 

The ECB will end its meeting today, and the rate decision and monetary policy statement will be released by 11.45 GMT, and Draghi's speech will be at 12:30 GMT.

 

The Markets are anticipating several stimulus measures, as it's almost impossible for decisions in the opposite direction, especially with the european economy being weak, inflation rates being high, and the ongoing US-China trade war.

USD/JPY rebounds from 3-year low

Economies.com
2019-09-12 06:25AM UTC

US dollar rose against Japanese yen in the asian market today, rebounding from its lowest level since November 9th, 2016, while rising to the highest since the first of August, when it tested the highest since last May, after the release of major Japanese economic data and ahead of key data releases by the US economy.

 

As of 6:14 GMT, USD/JPY rose by 0.17% to 108.00, from the opening of 107.82, after hitting a 6-week high at 108.17, with a low of 107.78.

 

The Japanese economy released today its monthly reading for the PPI which contracted by 0.3% vs 0% in July and lower than forecasts of 0.2%, while the annual reading showed a contraction to 0.9% vs 0.6% in July and also lower than forecasts of 0.8%.

 

The machinery orders index fell by 6.6% vs a rise by 13.9% in july beating forecasts of a drop by 9.0%, the annual reading showed that growth has slowed down by 0.3% to 12.5% beating forecast of 3.7%, While the Tertiary industry activity index rose by 0.1% vs a fall by 0.1% in june beating forecast of drop by 0.3%.

 

Otherwise, the markets are anticipating today the release of the US CPI reading, with forecasts a rise by 0.1% vs 0.3% in July, with the core reading, which may fall by 0.2% vs. 0.3%, while the annual reading of the same index may grow by 1.8%, and the annual core reading is expected to rise by 2.3% vs. 2.2%.

 

In addition to the unemployment claims index, which is expected to fall by 2 thousands orders to 215 thousands vs 217 thousands, while investors claims index is expected to rise by 13 thousands to 1,675 thousands vs. 1,662 thousands.

Silver tilts lower, shrugs off dollar drop from 2-year high

Economies.com
2019-09-12 06:04AM UTC

Silver futures tilted lower in the Asian market today, to bounce from the highest since September 30, 2016, shrugging off dollar's drop from its highest since May 12th, 2017, on the threshold of economic data releases today by the Eurozone economies and the US economy, after the recent developments in the US-China trade talks.

 

As of 05:59 GMT, silver futures (December delivery) fell by 0.05% to $18.19 an ounce, from the opening of $18.20, after opening today on rising price gap as it closed yesterday at $18.17, as the dollar index fell by 0.01% to 98.62 points from the opening of 98.63.

 

The markets are anticipating the release of Germany's final CPI reading, which is expected to contract by 0.2%, unchanged from the initial reading for August vs. a growth by 0.5% in July, in addition to the French CPI reading, which is expected to grow by 0.5% vs. a contraction of 0.2% in July.

 

With the release of Italy's unemployment rate for Q2, which may decline to 10.0% vs. 10.4% in Q1, in addition to the release of the European industrial output reading, which is expected to fall to 0.1%, and the annual reading of the same index is expected to fall by 1.3% vs. 2.6%.

 

The markets are also anticipating the ECB decisions and Governor Mario Draghi's press conference later today, with forecasts for the ECB to cut interest rates to a negative range and to announce quantitative easing policies to to stimulate the european economy.

 

Otherwise, the US economy will release its CPI reading, with forecasts a rise by 0.1% vs 0.3% in July, with the core reading, which may fall by 0.2% vs. 0.3%, while the annual reading of the same index may grow by 1.8%, and the annual core reading is expected to rise by 2.3% vs. 2.2%.

 

In addition to the weekly reading unemployment claims index, which is expected to fall by 2 thousands to 215 thousands orders vs 217 thousands in the previous reading, while investors claims index is expected to rise by 13 thousands to 1,675 thousands vs. 1,662 thousands.

 

US President Trump announced via his official Twitter account, the delaying of the $250 billion tariffs increase on Chinese imports from 25% to 30% for nearly two weeks in a goodwill gesture, until October 15th.

 

Trump said that the Chinese Vice Premier Liu He requested that, and especially that the People's Republic of China will celebrate its 70th anniversary on October 1st, they agreed to delay the $250 billion tariffs increase on Chinese imports from until October 15th.

 

Which comes after the Chinese Ministry of Finance announced on Wednesday that 16 US products would be exempted from 25% tariffs that were imposed since last year on animal food and oil products, with a 1-year exemption from September 17th.

 

Bearing in mind that these developments have improved investors' risk appetite and raised the market's hopes of resolving the trade war, ahead of the next round of talks in Washington early next month, while analysts remain skeptical that the two sides will reach an agreement in that upcoming round.

 

President Trump also renewed his criticism of the Fed and its governor Jerome Powell yesterday, and demanded that the rate be cut to zero levels or below, ahead of its meeting on 17-18 of September in Washington, as the bank's committee members are expected to reveal their forecasts on growth, inflation and unemployment, as well as the future of the short-term interest rates for the next three years.

Gold holds above $1,500 with ECB meeting in focus

Economies.com
2019-09-12 05:14AM UTC

Gold futures tilted lower today, to bounce from the highest since April 10, 2013, as dollar rose according to the inverse relation between them, and on threshold of economic data releases today by the Eurozone economies and the US economy, after the recent developments in the US-China trade talks.

 

As of 04:47 GMT, gold futures (December delivery) fell by 0.15% to $1,502.70 an ounce, from the opening of $1,504.90, after opening today on rising price gap as it closed yesterday at $1,503.20, while the dollar index rose by 0.01% to 98.34 points from the opening of 98.33.

 

The markets are anticipating the release of Germany's final CPI reading, which is expected to contract by 0.2%, unchanged from the initial reading for August vs. a growth by 0.5% in July, in addition to the French CPI reading, which is expected to grow by 0.5% vs. a contraction of 0.2% in July.

 

With the release of Italy's unemployment rate for Q2, which may decline to 10.0% vs. 10.4% in Q1, in addition to the release of the European industrial output reading, which is expected to fall to 0.1%, and the annual reading of the same index is expected to fall by 1.3% vs. 2.6%.

 

The markets are also anticipating the ECB decisions and Governor Mario Draghi's press conference later today, with forecasts for the ECB to cut interest rates to a negative range and to announce quantitative easing policies to to stimulate the european economy.

 

Otherwise, the US economy will release its CPI reading, with forecasts a rise by 0.1% vs 0.3% in July, with the core reading, which may fall by 0.2% vs. 0.3%, while the annual reading of the same index may grow by 1.8%, and the annual core reading is expected to rise by 2.3% vs. 2.2%.

 

In addition to the weekly reading unemployment claims index, which is expected to fall by 2 thousands to 215 thousands orders vs 217 thousands in the previous reading, while investors claims index is expected to rise by 13 thousands to 1,675 thousands vs. 1,662 thousands.

 

US President Trump announced via his official Twitter account, the delaying of the $250 billion tariffs increase on Chinese imports from 25% to 30% for nearly two weeks in a goodwill gesture, until October 15th.

 

Trump said that the Chinese Vice Premier Liu He requested that, and especially that the People's Republic of China will celebrate its 70th anniversary on October 1st, they agreed to delay the $250 billion tariffs increase on Chinese imports from until October 15th.

 

Which comes after the Chinese Ministry of Finance announced on Wednesday that 16 US products would be exempted from 25% tariffs that were imposed since last year on animal food and oil products, with a 1-year exemption from September 17th.

 

Bearing in mind that these developments have improved investors' risk appetite and raised the market's hopes of resolving the trade war, ahead of the next round of talks in Washington early next month, while analysts remain skeptical that the two sides will reach an agreement in that upcoming round.

 

President Trump also renewed his criticism of the Fed and its governor Jerome Powell yesterday, and demanded that the rate be cut to zero levels or below, ahead of its meeting on 17-18 of September in Washington, as the bank's committee members are expected to reveal their forecasts on growth, inflation and unemployment, as well as the future of the short-term interest rates for the next three years.