Oil prices fell by around 5% on Monday after US President Donald Trump signaled progress in talks with Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, although he stressed that the United States would not rush to finalize a deal.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped about 5.8% to $90.95 a barrel by 7:35 a.m. Eastern Time, while global benchmark Brent crude futures fell by nearly the same percentage to $97.60 a barrel.

Trump said in a social media post on Sunday: “The negotiations are proceeding in an organized and constructive manner, and I have instructed our representatives not to rush into an agreement because time is on our side.”

The US president had said on Saturday that an agreement with Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and other issues had been “largely negotiated” and would be announced soon.

Trump had previously suggested that the conflict with Iran was close to being resolved before tensions escalated again and oil prices surged.

US crude lost more than 8% last week, while Brent crude fell by more than 5%, after Trump said he had canceled imminent airstrikes on Iran to allow more time for negotiations.

Despite the recent declines, prices remain more than 30% higher since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28.

Iran has imposed an effective blockade on shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz since early March, with vessels now required to obtain permission from Tehran to pass or risk being targeted in attacks.

The blockade was imposed following US and Israeli strikes that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with several senior Iranian officials.

The Strait of Hormuz is considered one of the most critical chokepoints in the global oil market, with around 20% of global supplies passing through it before the outbreak of the war.

The Iranian blockade has sharply reduced oil exports from the Middle East, triggering the largest supply disruption in history.

The United States responded by imposing a blockade on Iranian ports and vessels. Trump said on Sunday that the US blockade would remain “fully in effect until an agreement is reached, ratified, and signed.”

Silver prices jumped more than 4% in European trading on Monday, resuming gains that were temporarily halted in the previous session and moving toward recording their highest level in several weeks, supported by the decline of the US dollar and falling global oil prices, following major progress in peace negotiations between the United States and Iran.

Lower oil prices are helping ease concerns over accelerating inflation, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more room to keep interest rates unchanged in the near term, while expectations continue to grow for eventual rate cuts over the longer term.

Price Overview

Silver prices today rose by 4.35% to $78.83, from the opening level at $75.55, while recording a session low at $75.54.

At Friday’s settlement, silver prices lost 1.5%, marking their first decline in the past three sessions, due to a stronger dollar and rising oil prices.

Silver prices also declined 0.55% last week, recording a second consecutive weekly loss, amid mounting inflationary pressures in the United States and rising US Treasury yields.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index fell 0.4% on Monday, pulling away from a six-week high at 99.52 points and heading toward its first loss in three sessions, reflecting broad weakness in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

Beyond profit-taking activity, the dollar weakened amid improving risk appetite across global markets, driven by growing hopes that the United States and Iran are nearing a peace agreement that could end the war in the Middle East.

Global Oil Prices

Oil prices fell more than 6% at the start of the week, reaching their lowest levels in three weeks, as fears over supply disruptions from the Gulf region eased, while expectations increased that the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen to oil tankers.

Developments in the Iran War

The United States and Iran are reportedly close to reaching a final agreement framework to end the war in the Middle East.

Trump stated that a large portion of the draft agreement “has already been negotiated,” though it has not yet been fully finalized, adding that “time is on Washington’s side” to secure a “good and appropriate” deal.

Sources said the agreement framework includes extending the ceasefire for 60 days, giving negotiators time to draft the final and detailed terms needed to permanently end the war.

The agreement also reportedly includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a US decision to end its naval blockade on Iranian ports and allow Iran to sell oil under specific exemptions.

Sources added that several contentious issues remain unresolved, including oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s complete abandonment of highly enriched uranium, and the release of frozen Iranian assets.

US officials said the agreement will not be signed on Monday and that final approvals could still take several days.

Tasnim News Agency warned that the draft agreement could collapse over disputes related to frozen Iranian assets.

US Interest Rates

Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Chairman of the US Federal Reserve on Friday.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 52% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December, compared to just over 16% at the beginning of May.

Markets are also fully pricing in a 100% probability that US interest rates will remain unchanged at the June meeting, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut remains at zero.

To reassess those expectations, investors are closely monitoring additional US economic data releases, alongside comments from Federal Reserve officials.

The US dollar weakened against major currencies on Monday as hopes grew for an agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices below $100 per barrel, despite both the United States and Iran downplaying the chances of an imminent deal.

At the same time, several major global markets, including the United States, Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and much of Europe, were closed for holidays, leading to thinner market liquidity.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar fell 0.2% to 158.94 yen, while the euro rose 0.31% to $1.11639 and the British pound gained 0.42% to $1.34865.

The Australian dollar also climbed 0.5% to $0.7162, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.37% to $0.58685.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index slipped around 0.2% to 99.059 points.

As diplomatic efforts to resolve the war with Iran continued, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States would either reach a good agreement or deal with Iran “in another way.”

For his part, the spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry said both sides had reached conclusions on several issues included in the potential memorandum of understanding with Washington, but stressed that this did not mean Tehran was close to signing an agreement.

Oil markets declined on hopes of a peace deal, with Brent Crude falling 4.5% to $98.9 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped 4.4% to $88.98 per barrel.

Over the weekend, conflicting signals emerged regarding the peace agreement. President Donald Trump said on social media Saturday that a memorandum for a peace agreement with Iran had been “largely negotiated,” while both countries and mediators in Pakistan reported progress.

However, Trump later stated Sunday on Truth Social that the US blockade on Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz “will remain fully in place until an agreement is reached, ratified, and signed.”

Chris Weston said markets had become accustomed to being patient while waiting for a tangible breakthrough, but noted that the base-case scenario still points toward an eventual agreement.

He added that Brent crude falling toward $90 per barrel could provide another boost to risk assets, alongside easing short-term inflation expectations and lower bets on interest rate hikes in 2027.

In Europe, Yannis Stournaras said Monday that if eurozone inflation exceeds the European Central Bank’s target significantly, even temporarily, policymakers should consider a cautious shift toward tighter monetary policy.

Investors are also watching several important economic releases this week, including the US employment report from ADP on Tuesday and eurozone confidence surveys on Thursday.

Gold prices rose by more than 1.5% in European trading on Monday and were on track to record their highest levels in several weeks, supported by a weaker US dollar and falling global oil prices, amid a major breakthrough in peace negotiations between the United States and Iran.

Lower oil prices are easing concerns about accelerating inflation, potentially giving major central banks more room to keep interest rates unchanged in the near term, while expectations for future rate cuts continue to grow.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today:

Gold prices climbed more than 1.5% to $4,580.00 per ounce, from an opening level of $4,509.51. The session low was also recorded at $4,509.51.

• At Friday’s settlement, gold prices lost 0.75%, marking their second consecutive daily decline, pressured by a stronger US dollar and rising global oil prices.

• Gold lost around 0.7% last week, recording a second straight weekly decline due to rising long-term US Treasury yields.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index fell around 0.4% on Monday, moving further away from a six-week high of 99.52 points and heading toward its first loss in the past three sessions, reflecting broad weakness in the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

As is well known, a weaker dollar makes gold priced in US currency more attractive to holders of other currencies.

Beyond profit-taking activity, the dollar weakened as investor risk appetite improved, amid rising optimism that the United States and Iran are nearing a peace agreement that could end the war in the Middle East.

Global Oil Prices

Oil prices fell by more than 6% at the start of the week, reaching their lowest levels in three weeks, as fears over supply disruptions from the Arabian Gulf eased amid increasing expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen to oil tankers.

Latest Developments in the Iran War

• The United States and Iran are reportedly close to reaching a final agreement framework to end the war in the Middle East.

• Trump said that “a large part” of the draft agreement had already been negotiated, though not fully finalized, adding that “time is on Washington’s side” to secure a “good and suitable” deal.

• Sources said the agreement framework includes extending the ceasefire for 60 days, allowing negotiators time to finalize the detailed terms required to permanently end the conflict.

• The agreement also reportedly includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, and allowing Iran to sell oil under specific exemptions.

• Sources added that several contentious issues remain unresolved, including oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s complete surrender of highly enriched uranium, and the release of frozen Iranian assets.

• US officials said the agreement would not be signed on Monday and that final approvals could still take several days.

• Tasnim News Agency warned that the draft agreement could collapse due to disagreements over frozen Iranian assets.

US Interest Rates

• Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as Chair of the Federal Reserve on Friday.

• According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 52% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, compared with just over 16% at the beginning of May.

• Markets are also pricing a 100% probability that US interest rates will remain unchanged at the June meeting, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut stands at zero.

• Investors are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials to reassess those expectations.

Gold Outlook

KCM Trade chief market analyst Tim Waterer said Trump’s remarks had increased market hopes for some type of agreement with Iran that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

He added that this possibility negatively impacted oil prices and, in turn, provided positive support for gold from an inflation perspective.

SPDR Gold Trust

Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell by around 2.85 metric tons on Friday, bringing total holdings down to 1,034.85 metric tons, the lowest level since May 8.