US crude futures rose more than 12% on Friday but remained below Brent prices, as buyers sought available supplies while Middle Eastern shipments became restricted following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the widening war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other.

Brent crude futures settled at $92.69 per barrel, up $7.28 or 8.52%. US West Texas Intermediate crude reached $90.90 per barrel, gaining $9.89 or 12.21%.

This marked the second consecutive session in which gains in US crude outpaced those of the Brent benchmark.

Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said refineries and trading companies are searching for alternative cargoes, while the United States remains the world’s largest oil producer. He added that the price gap reflects transportation costs aimed at preventing US inventories from falling too quickly due to rising exports.

Janiv Shah, vice president of oil analysis at Rystad Energy, pointed to several factors behind the divergence between Brent and WTI gains, including improved refining margins along the US Gulf Coast, as well as arbitrage flows with Europe and activity in Washington’s futures markets.

Crude oil was also heading for its largest weekly gain since the extreme volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic in the spring of 2020, as the Middle East conflict continued to halt shipping and energy exports through the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Oil could reach $100 or even $150

Qatar’s energy minister said Gulf energy producers may be forced to halt exports within weeks, potentially pushing oil prices to $150 per barrel, according to an interview with the Financial Times published Friday.

John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, said markets are witnessing a worst-case scenario unfolding, adding that expectations for oil to reach $100 per barrel could soon materialize.

The sharp rally in oil prices began after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran last Saturday, prompting Tehran to halt tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

About 20% of global daily oil demand passes through this waterway. With the strait effectively closed for seven days, roughly 140 million barrels of oil have been unable to reach markets, equivalent to about 1.4 days of global demand.

The conflict has also spread to major energy-producing regions in the Middle East, disrupting production and forcing some refineries and liquefied natural gas facilities to shut down.

Staunovo said every day the strait remains closed will push prices higher, noting that markets had previously believed US President Donald Trump might step back from escalation due to concerns about rising oil prices. However, the continuation of the crisis highlights the scale of risks facing global supplies.

Trump told Reuters he is not concerned about higher gasoline prices in the United States linked to the conflict, saying: “If prices go up, they go up.”

Meanwhile, speculation that the US Treasury might take steps to limit rising energy costs pushed prices down by more than 1% earlier on Friday before they recovered after a Bloomberg report said the Trump administration had ruled out using the Treasury to intervene in oil futures markets.

On Thursday, the Treasury granted exemptions allowing companies to purchase sanctioned Russian oil. The first of these waivers went to Indian refineries, which subsequently bought millions of barrels of Russian crude.

US President Donald Trump is preparing to use the US Navy to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz amid the intensifying war against Iran. However, ensuring safe passage for the large volume of shipping that normally moves through the waterway will be a major challenge.

CNBC reported that Wall Street analysts believe Brent crude could exceed $100 per barrel if the waterway remains closed for an extended period. At that level, elevated oil prices could push the global economy toward recession.

The narrow strait is the only route for tankers entering and leaving the Arabian Gulf. According to energy consultancy Kpler, more than 14 million barrels of crude oil per day passed through the strait in 2025, representing roughly one-third of the world’s seaborne oil shipments.

Around 100 vessels per day

Matt Smith, oil analyst at Kpler, said that about 100 tankers and cargo ships normally pass through the strait each day, while roughly 400 tankers are currently stranded in the Gulf because of the war.

Matt Wright, senior shipping analyst at the same firm, said: “There are hundreds and hundreds of ships still in the Gulf in the Middle East,” adding that the US Navy would need “a very long time to escort them even if it moved a few ships at a time.”

Trump’s pledge to escort tankers if necessary, along with offering political risk insurance for shipowners, helped calm oil markets on Tuesday and Wednesday.

However, prices rose again on Thursday after Iran said it had attacked a tanker with a missile. At the same time, the British navy reported a major explosion on a tanker anchored in Iraqi territorial waters.

Are there enough warships?

Helima Croft, head of global commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said in a client note on Tuesday: “The key question will be whether there are enough naval assets to escort ships while continuing operations against Iran.”

Wright noted that insurance is not the main issue for shipowners, explaining that tankers are not moving due to concerns about their physical security. He added that shipowners will need to see a sustained period without attacks before risking passage through the strait again.

He stressed that restoring oil flows from the Gulf is extremely urgent, but “there must be some confidence that Iran’s ability to continue the war has been reduced.”

Houthi militants in Yemen disrupted shipping in the Red Sea through missile attacks for more than a year beginning in late 2023. Wright said: “But they do not compare with the complexity of Iranian capabilities, so the threat is completely different.”

Analysts at Rapidan Energy believe US naval escorts could provide partial relief but would not be sufficient on their own to reopen the strait. They added that the United States would need to systematically weaken Iran’s military capabilities, a process that would take time.

The 1980s experience

Croft noted that the US Navy escorted oil tankers through the strait in 1987 when commercial vessels became targets during the Iran–Iraq war. However, she pointed out that at the time the US military was not simultaneously fighting a war against the regime in Tehran while also guaranteeing safe passage for ships.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Wednesday that the Trump administration would provide naval escorts “as soon as possible.”

He said in an interview with Fox News: “Right now our navy and our military are focused on other matters, namely disarming this Iranian regime that attacks its neighbors and Americans in every possible way.”

He added: “In the not-too-distant future we will be able to use the navy to restore energy flows again, but for now markets remain well supplied.”

No timeline

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Wednesday that the Trump administration does not have a timeline for when safe commercial navigation through the strait might resume.

Speaking at a press briefing, she said: “I do not want to commit to a timeline, but this is being actively evaluated by the Department of War and the Department of Energy.”

Analysts believe that if tankers remain trapped inside the Gulf for a longer period, the situation in the global oil market could become increasingly complicated.

The commodity-linked Canadian dollar rose to a three-week high against its US counterpart on Friday, supported by rising oil prices and weaker-than-expected US employment data.

The Canadian dollar, known as the “loonie,” was trading 0.5% higher at C$1.3610 per US dollar, or about 73.48 US cents, after touching C$1.3598 during the session, its strongest level since February 13.

On a weekly basis, the Canadian currency gained about 0.2%, as the surge in oil prices helped offset demand for the US dollar as a safe haven.

The Canadian dollar also posted stronger weekly gains against other G10 currencies, particularly those of oil-importing countries. Against the euro, it rose 2.1%, marking its largest weekly gain since February last year.

Oil prices jumped about 11% to reach $89.94 per barrel on Friday, as the ongoing conflict disrupted shipping and energy exports through the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Oil is one of Canada’s key exports, meaning higher prices could support the Canadian economy as well as government tax revenues.

Amo Sahota, director at Klarity FX in San Francisco, said that the widening conflict with Iran and the possibility that it could last longer are supportive for Canadian bonds. He added that markets are also seeing a rapid shift in US interest rate expectations as traders reassess the risk of higher inflation in the United States alongside a disappointing jobs report.

Data showed the US economy unexpectedly lost jobs in February, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, potentially signaling deteriorating labor market conditions and placing the Federal Reserve in a difficult position amid rising oil prices.

The US dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of major peers, declined, while US Treasury yields edged slightly lower.

In contrast, Canadian economic data came in stronger. The seasonally adjusted Ivey Purchasing Managers Index rose to 56.6 last month from 50.9 in January, marking its highest level since September.

Meanwhile, the yield on Canada’s 10-year government bond rose by 2.5 basis points to 3.384%, while the spread between Canadian and US 10-year yields narrowed by 5 basis points to 73.7 basis points in favor of US Treasuries.

US stock indices fell sharply during trading on Friday following comments from President Donald Trump as well as the release of the monthly employment report, which showed an unexpected decline in job numbers.

Data released by the US Department of Labor showed that the world’s largest economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, while analysts had expected the addition of 58,000 jobs during the same period.

The data also revealed that the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% last month from 4.3% in January, compared with expectations that the rate would remain unchanged.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said in a post on the Truth Social platform that no agreement would be reached to end the war between the United States and Iran without Tehran’s “unconditional surrender.”

Qatar’s energy minister also warned in an interview with the Financial Times that Gulf energy producers may be forced in the coming days to declare force majeure, which would mean halting production and could push oil prices to $150 per barrel.

He added that the widening conflict in the Middle East could “bring down the world’s economies,” noting that if the war continues for weeks it could affect global GDP growth as energy prices rise, certain products become scarce, and industrial supply chains are disrupted.

In trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.2% (614 points) to 47,340 as of 16:57 GMT. The broader S&P 500 declined 1.2% (85 points) to 6,746, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.1% (254 points) to 22,495.