Why is the US rushing to control Iraq’s most geopolitically sensitive gas prize?

With Iran on its eastern border, Turkey to the north, Syria and Jordan to the west, and Saudi Arabia to the south, Iraq is arguably the most geopolitically important country in the entire Middle East for the United States, China and Russia. Within Iraq itself, the largely lawless western desert province of Anbar may be its most geopolitically significant region, while the giant Akkas gas field represents Anbar’s most important strategic asset.

With Iraq’s new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi taking office on May 16 and showing every indication of being open to new Western energy initiatives across the country, US companies have positioned themselves at the forefront of efforts to secure control over the development of Akkas. So what are their main objectives, and how do they intend to achieve them?

Broadly, the Iraqi government wants gas production from the Akkas field to reach 400 million standard cubic feet per day (MMscfd) by 2030, nearly ten times its current output of 43 MMscfd, according to a recent Oil Ministry statement.

An interim target of 143 MMscfd is expected to be reached by mid-2027 under an existing contract with multinational energy services company SLB, formerly known as Schlumberger. The agreement includes drilling six wells and constructing a gas processing facility with a capacity of 100 MMscfd, according to Mohammed Yassin Hassan, director general of Iraq’s Midland Oil Company, which is working alongside SLB at Akkas.

Against this backdrop, the Oil Ministry signed a memorandum of understanding in late July with a consortium comprising US companies ConocoPhillips and TI Capital, alongside Novaterra Energy, to assess the exploration and development potential of Akkas and surrounding areas.

This followed ConocoPhillips’ agreement to acquire a 42% stake in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited from British oil giant BP, with the aim of redeveloping five producing oil fields in the Kirkuk region of northern Iraq: the Baba Dome and Avanah Dome of the Kirkuk field, as well as Bai Hassan, Jambur and Khabbaz.

TI Capital is also working with US oil major Chevron to develop a crude oil pipeline stretching from Kirkuk in Iraq to the Syrian Mediterranean port of Baniyas. The project is targeting capacity of up to 2 million barrels per day, which would allow Iraq to export its crude directly to European and global markets through the Mediterranean.

At the same time, Novaterra Energy signed a major agreement alongside ConocoPhillips with the state-owned Syrian Petroleum Company (SPC) to return to the country and rebuild damaged gas infrastructure, with the aim of increasing gas production by between 4 million and 5 million cubic meters per day within one year.

48 US agreements and a redrawing of the region’s energy map

These deals followed a wave of agreements and partnerships with US companies, totaling 48 agreements, signed during new Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s first official visit to the country.

The agreements were not limited to major programs for developing oil and gas fields and building supporting energy infrastructure both domestically and internationally, including the Iraq-Syria pipeline. They also included an agreement with US satellite communications giant Starlink to launch its services in Iraq.

More broadly, many of these deals form part of a reimagining of the Middle East that involves marginalizing Iran under its current political system, while the United States seeks to broker additional normalization agreements, known as the Abraham Accords, between major Arab states in the Middle East and Israel.

As a preliminary step toward that objective, Washington aims to dramatically increase investment by major US companies and expand their physical presence on the ground in targeted countries, broadly resembling the first phase of China’s investments under its Belt and Road Initiative.

The construction of a crude oil pipeline between Iraq and Syria is a clear example of this broader strategy to isolate Iran, under its current political system, from the rest of the Middle East. Tom Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkey, said the latest Iraqi oil pipeline agreements would lead to a program that would “make the Strait of Hormuz secondary.”

Another major example is the sweeping sanctions imposed by the United States and Britain on Russian companies operating in Iraq, which led Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft to exit major projects in northern and southern Iraq, with Western companies taking their place.

The granting of a license to Starlink to operate in Iraq in July also represents a multidimensional strategic move and a cornerstone of continuing US efforts to pull Iraq further toward the West.

The system provides Iraq, its armed forces and international energy consortiums with immediate communications capabilities to monitor assets, secure energy corridors and coordinate defense operations in areas that were previously vulnerable to regional instability.

It also gives Iraq a communications network that completely bypasses terrestrial infrastructure controlled by neighboring states or local political militias, most notably Iran and Tehran-backed militias.

Securing the Akkas field fits perfectly into this broader pattern. Its proven reserves of 5.6 trillion cubic feet should allow it to achieve the Oil Ministry’s targeted production of 400 MMscfd within the required timeframe, given the caliber of the companies seeking to participate in the project.

Beyond that, however, the field’s geographic location makes it exceptionally important to US plans for the region, because oil and gas companies are legally entitled to secure their operations at oil and gas fields around the world by whatever means they deem necessary, provided they have the approval of the local government.

Akkas is also one of three major gas fields forming an irregular triangle across southern Iraq, stretching from the Mansouriya field, very close to the country’s eastern border with Iran, down to the Siba field in the south, extremely close to Iraq’s main export hub in Basra, and then westward to Akkas itself, near the Syrian border.

Along the east-to-west axis of this triangle lie Fallujah, Ramadi, Hit and Haditha, cities with a history of extreme nationalism and intense anti-Western sentiment. Beyond them, Iraq gives way to Syria, with only a relatively short distance separating the area from the strategically important ports of Baniyas, Tartus and Latakia.

All three locations were of major global strategic importance to Moscow. Tartus hosted a major naval base and provided Russia with its only access to a Mediterranean port.

Baniyas lies a short distance from Hmeimim Air Base, which, under an agreement reached in 2015, was transformed into an airport and air base for both civilian and military use by Russia.

A short flight from those two strategic locations, Russia also maintained an intelligence facility in Latakia used for signals interception and intelligence gathering.

Baniyas was also viewed by Russia and Iran as the final segment of a long-planned “land bridge” stretching from Tehran to the Mediterranean, through which weapons transfers to southern Lebanon and Syria’s Golan region could be dramatically increased for use in attacks against Israel.

According to the analysis presented in the text, the fundamental objective of this policy was to ignite a broader Middle East conflict that would draw the United States and its allies into a war that would be difficult to win, similar to the recent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

A new agreement signed on August 9 between Syria’s new government under Ahmed al-Sharaa and Russia ended Moscow’s independent sovereign control over these strategic locations, while Washington insists that Russia must not be allowed to return to them.